Prevalence of same‐gender sexual behavior and HIV in a probability household survey in Mexican men

The prevalence of male same‐gender sexual behavior in Mexico City in relation to HIV transmission was studied. A household probability survey of 8,068 adult men was conducted in 1992–93 using the Mexican National Health Survey sampling frame. The response rate was 59%. Differences between respondents and nonrespondents indicated no evidence for significant bias. A random subsample of 1,116 individuals provided serum or saliva for HIV testing. An estimated 2.5% of men practiced same‐gender sex in their lifetime: 2.1% (95% CI: 1.7 ‐ 2.4%) reported bisexual behavior and 0.4% (95% CI: 0.3 ‐ 0.6%) reported exclusively homosexual behavior. Among bisexuals, 70% reported sex only with women in the previous year, 7% reported sex only with men, 13% reported sex with both, and 10% were sexually inactive. A condom was used by 46% in their last homosexual encounter. An estimated 0.1% of married men were homosexually active in the previous year. The HTV prevalence estimate was 0.2% in the sample. The rate was 4% among homosexual/bisexual men and 0.09% in heterosexual men (p < 0.0001). Estimates of homosexual behavior and HTV infection from this population‐based sample are lower than results from nonprobability studies. The low prevalence of condom use anticipates future growth of the epidemic in the homosexual population. Bisexual behavior appeared to be infrequent and transitory, particularly among married men.     

Book Review

Abstract

Milton Meltzer: The Black Americans: A History in Their Own Words, Thomas Y. Crowell, 10 East 53rd Street New York, NY 10022, September 26, 1984, Price $13.50 Audience: Junior High/up Reviewed by Helen Richardson.     

Exploratory data analysis for counts using the empirical probability generating function 1

We present a graphical method based on the empirical probability generating function for preliminary statistical analysis of distributions for counts. The method is especially useful in fitting a Poisson model, or for identifying alternative models as well as possible outlying observations from general discrete distributions.     

From passive to active consumers? Later life consumption in the UK from 1968–2005

The significance of the UK's ageing population has been generally acknowledged, however its implications for consumption have been neglected. The consumption patterns of older people are important given that the end of the 20^th century witnessed profound changes to the nature of later life, many linked to the emergence of 'consumer societies' in the UK and elsewhere. The uneven nature of retirement, as well as the relative affluence of many retired people, has important effects on patterns and experiences of consumption. This paper charts consumption by retired households in two areas; ownership of key consumer goods and key components of household spending. We investigate how these expenditure trends compare with other household types and across pseudo-birth cohorts. We draw data from 9 years of the Family Expenditure Survey taken at 5 year intervals between 1968 and 2004/5. The data demonstrate the growing extent of ownership of key goods in retired households but also show the differences in proportional expenditure between retired households and the employed. We also note differences between pseudo-birth cohorts and conclude that consumption patterns in later life are influenced by the generational habitus of the differing cohorts who entered retirement between the 1960s and the present day.     

Religious Affiliation and Fertility in a Sub-Saharan Context: Dynamic and Lifetime Perspectives

We use uniquely detailed data from a predominantly Christian high-fertility area in Mozambique to examine denominational differentials in fertility from two complementary perspectives—dynamic and cumulative. First, we use event-history analysis to predict yearly risks of birth from denominational affiliation. Then, we employ Poisson regression to model the association between the number of children ever born and share of reproductive life spent in particular denominations or outside organized religion. Both approaches detect a significant increase in fertility associated with membership in a particular type of African-initiated churches which is characterized by strong organizational identity, rigid hierarchy, and insular corporate culture. Membership in the Catholic Church is also associated with elevated completed fertility. We relate these results to extant theoretical perspectives on the relationship between religion and fertility by stressing the interplay between ideological, social, and organizational characteristics of different types of churches and situate our findings within the context of fertility transition and religious demographics in Mozambique and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Modified Tukey's Control Chart

Phase I of control analysis requires large amount of data to fit a distribution and estimate the corresponding parameters of the process under study. However, when only individual observations are available, and no a priori knowledge exists, the presence of outliers can bias the analysis. A relatively recent and successful approach to address this situation is Tukey's Control Chart (TCC), a charting method that applies the Box Plot technique to estimate the control limits. This procedure has proven to be effective for symmetric distributions. However, when skewness is present the average run length performance diminishes significantly. This article proposes a modified version of TCC to consider skewness with minimum assumptions on the underlying distribution of observations. Using theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulation, the modified TCC is tested over several distributions proving a better representation of skewed populations, even in cases when only a limited number of observations are available.     

The Revenue Effects of the Kennedy and Reagan Tax Cuts: Some Time Series Estimates

Univariate time series models are estimated for sample periods ending with the enactment of major tax reductions in 1964 and 1981. These models are used to forecast government revenue for the period following the tax cut, and the pattern of forecast errors is examined. Unforecast revenue is negative and large relative to its standard error following the 1981 tax cuts but is close to zero following the 1964 cuts. This disparity occurs because national output behaved differently in the two cases, suggesting that short-run movements in output are dominated by factors other than tax rate changes.     

Quantile and Probability Curves Without Crossing

This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also known as the quantile crossing problem (Bassett and Koenker (1982)). The method consists in sorting or monotone rearranging the original estimated non‐monotone curve into a monotone rearranged curve. We show that the rearranged curve is closer to the true quantile curve than the original curve in finite samples, establish a functional delta method for rearrangement‐related operators, and derive functional limit theory for the entire rearranged curve and its functionals. We also establish validity of the bootstrap for estimating the limit law of the entire rearranged curve and its functionals. Our limit results are generic in that they apply to every estimator of a monotone function, provided that the estimator satisfies a functional central limit theorem and the function satisfies some smoothness conditions. Consequently, our results apply to estimation of other econometric functions with monotonicity restrictions, such as demand, production, distribution, and structural distribution functions. We illustrate the results with an application to estimation of structural distribution and quantile functions using data on Vietnam veteran status and earnings.