Forecasting electricity consumption with extra-model information provided by consumers

SUMMARY Univariate time series models make efficient use of available historical records of electricity consumption for short-term forecasting. However, the information (expectations) provided by electricity consumers in an energy-saving survey, even though qualitative, was considered to be particularly important, because the consumers' perception of the future may take into account the changing economic conditions. Our approach to forecasting electricity consumption combines historical data with expectations of the consumers in an optimal manner, using the technique of restricted forecasts. The same technique can be applied in some other forecasting situations in which additional information-besides the historical record of a variable-is available in the form of expectations.     

Safety Stock,Excess Capacity or Diversification: Trade‐Offs under Supply and Demand Uncertainty

Firms mitigate uncertainty in demand and supply by carrying safety stock, planning for excess capacity and diversifying supply sources. In this study, we provide a framework to jointly optimize these three levers in a periodic review infinite horizon setting, and in particular we examine how one can reduce inventory and capacity investments through proper diversification strategies. Observing that a modified base‐stock inventory policy is optimal, we find that the capacity‐diversification problem is well behaved and characterize the optimal mix of safety stock, excess capacity and extra number of supply sources. We find that higher supply uncertainty results in higher safety stock, more excess capacity, and higher diversification. But safety stock and diversification are non‐monotonic in demand uncertainty. Our results can be extended to situations in which suppliers are heterogeneous, and can be used to develop effective heuristics.     

Queer Chicano Families: The Importance of Converging Literature on Queer Families,Chicano Families,and Chicano Queers

Despite growing literature on Latino families and Latino queer identities, there has been relatively little empirical research on Latino same‐sex families. Likewise, emerging empirical research on gay and lesbian couples tends to focus on the experiences of middle‐class, well‐educated, White couples. I argue that combining theoretical and empirical works on sexuality, Chicano studies, and queer studies can assuage this lack of diversity in each body of literature. This work first examines current literature on Latino families, with a focus on Latino familism. This is followed by a brief examination of current literature on queer Chicanos. Lastly, it will discuss queer families and the lack of current literature on Latino same‐sex couples, in order to present a course of action for further research on the intersectional social location of queer Chicano families.     

Deciding Not to Un–Do the “I Do:” Therapy Experiences of Women Who Consider Divorce But Decide to Remain Married

This study explores women's experience of marital therapy while they navigated decision making around divorce. A qualitative method was used to gain a deeper understanding of the participants' therapy and relationship decision‐making experiences. How are women's decisions whether or not to exit their marriage affected by therapy? The researchers interviewed 15 women who had considered initiating divorce before they turned 40 and had attended at least five marital therapy sessions but ultimately decided not to divorce. In general, participants reported that the therapy was helpful to them, their decision‐making process and their marriages. Five main themes emerged from the interviews: Women Initiated Therapy, Therapist Was Experienced as Unbiased, Therapy was Helpful, Importance of Extra‐therapeutic Factors, and Gradual Process.     

Bayesian estimation and case influence diagnostics for the zero-inflated negative binomial regression model

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in regression models based on zero-inflated distributions. These models are commonly encountered in many disciplines, such as medicine, public health, and environmental sciences, among others. The zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model has been typically considered for these types of problems. However, the ZIP model can fail if the non-zero counts are overdispersed in relation to the Poisson distribution, hence the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model may be more appropriate. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for fitting the ZINB regression model. This model considers that an observed zero may come from a point mass distribution at zero or from the negative binomial model. The likelihood function is utilized to compute not only some Bayesian model selection measures, but also to develop Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures. The approach can be easily implemented using standard Bayesian software, such as WinBUGS. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated with a simulation study. Further, a real data set is analyzed, where we show that ZINB regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart.     

Salience,Valence, Context,and Integration: Conceptualizing the Needs of Sexually and Gender Diverse Youth in P–12 Schools

A framework for conceptualizing the needs of lesbian, gay male, bisexual, transgender, questioning, and other sexually and gender diverse youth is essential for guiding service delivery throughout educational settings. Review and synthesis of the literature reveals that integrating assessment of the salience, valence, and context of issues related to sexual and gender diversity facilitates affirmative practice at the individual student, group, and school-wide levels. The authors describe the components of the salience, valence, context, and integration (SVCI) model with emphasis on practical application. The theoretical and empirical support for each component of the model is also discussed.     

The Association Between Gay Men's Stereotypic Beliefs About Drag Queens and Their Endorsement of Hypermasculinity

To date, few researchers have investigated gay men's stereotypic beliefs about drag queens and the association between these beliefs and individual difference variables such as hypermasculinity. To address this omission, 118 men self-identifying as non-heterosexual completed an online survey consisting of an adjective checklist about drag queens and a psychometrically sound indicant of hypermasculinity. As predicted, participants who were more likely to endorse hypermasculine belief statements tended to perceive negatively valenced attributes as more characteristic of drag queens. Possible explanations for this relationship, limitations associated with the current study, and directions for future research are delineated.     

A Pilot for Improving Depression Care on College Campuses: Results of the College Breakthrough Series–Depression (CBS-D) Project

Abstract

Objective: To implement a pilot quality improvement project for depression identification and treatment in college health. Participants: Eight college health center teams composed primarily of primary care and counseling service directors and clinicians. Methods: Chronic (Collaborative) Care Model (CCM) used with standardized screening to identify, treat, and track depressed students for 12 weeks to monitor predetermined process and clinical outcomes. Results: Of all students receiving primary medical care services between January 2007 and May 2008, 69% (n = 71,908) were screened for depression. A total of 801 depressed students were treated and tracked; most predetermined treatment process and clinical outcome targets were achieved. Conclusion: The CCM for depression shows promise for improving depression identification and care for college students.