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321.
过去的10年,关于全球能源体系的预期已经发生非常显著的变化。在经历了长期的产能过剩之后,从2001年开始,全球能源市场中大部分能源产品的价格急速上升,能源供应链也极不稳定。全球油价在持续上升18个月之后达到了历史最高水平,而后下降了2/3。此后,在全球经济持续疲软的影响之下,油价再度上扬至令人担忧的水平。事实上,令人担忧的远远不只油价上扬。例如,欧洲各国政府担心天然气供应的安全,印度等  相似文献   
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The prevalence of male same‐gender sexual behavior in Mexico City in relation to HIV transmission was studied. A household probability survey of 8,068 adult men was conducted in 1992–93 using the Mexican National Health Survey sampling frame. The response rate was 59%. Differences between respondents and nonrespondents indicated no evidence for significant bias. A random subsample of 1,116 individuals provided serum or saliva for HIV testing. An estimated 2.5% of men practiced same‐gender sex in their lifetime: 2.1% (95% CI: 1.7 ‐ 2.4%) reported bisexual behavior and 0.4% (95% CI: 0.3 ‐ 0.6%) reported exclusively homosexual behavior. Among bisexuals, 70% reported sex only with women in the previous year, 7% reported sex only with men, 13% reported sex with both, and 10% were sexually inactive. A condom was used by 46% in their last homosexual encounter. An estimated 0.1% of married men were homosexually active in the previous year. The HTV prevalence estimate was 0.2% in the sample. The rate was 4% among homosexual/bisexual men and 0.09% in heterosexual men (p < 0.0001). Estimates of homosexual behavior and HTV infection from this population‐based sample are lower than results from nonprobability studies. The low prevalence of condom use anticipates future growth of the epidemic in the homosexual population. Bisexual behavior appeared to be infrequent and transitory, particularly among married men.  相似文献   
324.
Book Review     
Abstract

Milton Meltzer: The Black Americans: A History in Their Own Words, Thomas Y. Crowell, 10 East 53rd Street New York, NY 10022, September 26, 1984, Price $13.50 Audience: Junior High/up Reviewed by Helen Richardson.  相似文献   
325.
We present a graphical method based on the empirical probability generating function for preliminary statistical analysis of distributions for counts. The method is especially useful in fitting a Poisson model, or for identifying alternative models as well as possible outlying observations from general discrete distributions.  相似文献   
326.
The significance of the UK's ageing population has been generally acknowledged, however its implications for consumption have been neglected. The consumption patterns of older people are important given that the end of the 20th century witnessed profound changes to the nature of later life, many linked to the emergence of 'consumer societies' in the UK and elsewhere. The uneven nature of retirement, as well as the relative affluence of many retired people, has important effects on patterns and experiences of consumption. This paper charts consumption by retired households in two areas; ownership of key consumer goods and key components of household spending. We investigate how these expenditure trends compare with other household types and across pseudo-birth cohorts. We draw data from 9 years of the Family Expenditure Survey taken at 5 year intervals between 1968 and 2004/5. The data demonstrate the growing extent of ownership of key goods in retired households but also show the differences in proportional expenditure between retired households and the employed. We also note differences between pseudo-birth cohorts and conclude that consumption patterns in later life are influenced by the generational habitus of the differing cohorts who entered retirement between the 1960s and the present day.  相似文献   
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We use uniquely detailed data from a predominantly Christian high-fertility area in Mozambique to examine denominational differentials in fertility from two complementary perspectives—dynamic and cumulative. First, we use event-history analysis to predict yearly risks of birth from denominational affiliation. Then, we employ Poisson regression to model the association between the number of children ever born and share of reproductive life spent in particular denominations or outside organized religion. Both approaches detect a significant increase in fertility associated with membership in a particular type of African-initiated churches which is characterized by strong organizational identity, rigid hierarchy, and insular corporate culture. Membership in the Catholic Church is also associated with elevated completed fertility. We relate these results to extant theoretical perspectives on the relationship between religion and fertility by stressing the interplay between ideological, social, and organizational characteristics of different types of churches and situate our findings within the context of fertility transition and religious demographics in Mozambique and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.  相似文献   
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330.
Phase I of control analysis requires large amount of data to fit a distribution and estimate the corresponding parameters of the process under study. However, when only individual observations are available, and no a priori knowledge exists, the presence of outliers can bias the analysis. A relatively recent and successful approach to address this situation is Tukey's Control Chart (TCC), a charting method that applies the Box Plot technique to estimate the control limits. This procedure has proven to be effective for symmetric distributions. However, when skewness is present the average run length performance diminishes significantly. This article proposes a modified version of TCC to consider skewness with minimum assumptions on the underlying distribution of observations. Using theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulation, the modified TCC is tested over several distributions proving a better representation of skewed populations, even in cases when only a limited number of observations are available.  相似文献   
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