Modeling time series data with semi-reflective boundaries

Time series data are increasingly common in many areas of the health sciences, and in some instances, may have natural boundaries serving as performance guidelines or as thresholds associated with adverse outcomes. Such boundaries may be labeled as semi-reflective, in that the time series values have an increased chance of returning towards middle levels as the boundaries are approached, but boundaries can still be breached. In this paper we review a model that was previously proposed for such data and we investigate its statistical properties. Specifically, this model consists of a third-order auto-regressive projection component, parameterized as a constrained linear combination of linear, flat, and quadratic trends, and an error term that uses a logistic regression model for its sign. We describe and compare a previously-proposed estimation method with a modified version thereof, using computer simulations, as well as data examples from heart monitoring and from a driving simulator. We find that the two methods tend to give different results, with the modified technique having lower bias and more accurate confidence intervals than the previously-proposed method.     

Jordan's Public Policy Response to COVID-19 Pandemic: Insight and Policy Analysis

The aim of this study was to gain an understanding of how the Jordanian government has responded and continues to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. It utilizes the interpretive policy analysis approach through document analysis. The analysis showed that Jordan created social protection policies to assist people who lost their jobs or whose work was suspended due to the coronavirus. The economic policies build solidarity and facilitate the private sector’s recovery. The health care measures firmly applied included lockdown, wearing masks, and restrictions on gatherings and public events. Jordan uses hard power and imposes sanctions on any violation that threatens the lives of others.

     

Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual?

This paper looks at the role of statistics-based knowledge in the making of EU policy. We highlight shortcomings in the use of statistical indicators made in the course of the Lisbon strategy, ended in 2010. In our opinion the shortcomings are: (i) The paradox of the coexistence within the same European Commission of two holistic frameworks: the Structural Indicators and the Sustainable Development Indicators. One does not understand which of these two systems is taken to measure the overall policy performance of the European Union. (ii) A communication issue whereby the Lisbon strategy and its offspring EU 2020 are not communicated (Lisbon is to the average citizen the capital of Portugal) and are especially not communicated in relation to existing statistical indicators of good quality, against the opinion of academicians that transparency and accountability based on sound statistics favour democracy and participation. We illustrate the reasons that lead us to see these points as problematic and offer suggestions on how these should be tackled in line with the practices developed in the Open Method of Coordination. The danger is that in the absence of a debate on the issue, these shortcomings be perpetuated in the EU 2020 strategy.     

Deprivation,Social Exclusion and Subjective Well-Being

This paper aims at investigating empirically the relationship between self-declared satisfaction with life and an individual’s well-being as measured by the indices of deprivation and social exclusion proposed in the income distribution literature. Results on European countries show that life satisfaction decreases with an increase in deprivation and exclusion after controlling for individual’s income, relative income and other influential factors in a multivariate setting.     

Discussion on the paper “On simulation and properties of the stable law” by L. Devroye and L. James

We congratulate the authors for the interesting paper. The reading has been really pleasant and instructive. We discuss briefly only some of the interesting results given in Devroye and James (Stat Methods Appl 2014) with particular attention to evolution problems. The contribution of the results collected in the paper is useful in a more wide class of applications in many areas of applied mathematics.     

“发展型”或“政策型”生育率下降?——基于翼城“农村二孩”试点的分析

中国生育率在过去30年持续下降至较低水平,围绕下降的主要动因及其政策涵义的争论热烈。文章以"农村二孩"试点之一的翼城为案例,重新梳理和检视了在已有研究中较为忽视的翼城试点出台的背景和政策实施细则,并从多个方面考察了翼城生育政策对生育行为和生育意愿的影响。与已有研究对翼城试点的认识不同,政策文献回顾表明:"农村二孩"生育政策只是在初婚时间、生育子女数和生育间隔方面做出一些技术性"调整"以缓解国情与民情的矛盾,并没有实质性地改变实施计划生育这一基本国策的初衷。多维度数据分析交叉印证了在实施限制性的生育政策以后,社会经济发展变量不能解释生育率的下降,翼城现有生育行为和生育意愿更多是政策干预的结果,是政策促成的外生性转变,而非由于社会经济发展导致低生育意愿的内生性转变。     

Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function

This paper presents a preference foundation for a two-parameter family of probability weighting functions. We provide a theoretical link between the well-established notions of probabilistic risk attitudes (i.e., optimism and pessimism) used in economics and the important independent measures for individual behavior used in the psychology literature (i.e., curvature and elevation). One of the parameters in our model measures curvature and represents the diminishing effect of optimism and pessimism when moving away from extreme probabilities 0 and 1. The other parameter measures elevation and represents the relative strength of optimism vs. pessimism. Our empirical analysis indicates that the new weighting function fits elicited probability weights well, and that it can explain differences in the treatment of probabilities for gains compared to that for probabilities of losses.     

我国地区R&D资本存量测算：1978-2015年

2008年国民账户体系（System of National Accounts, SNA）拓展了固定资产的边界,研发（Research and Development, R&D）被视为一类新的固定资产,列入了知识产权产品。目前,官方统计并未给出中国各地区的R&D资本存量数据,现有文献也鲜有讨论2008年SNA框架下的相关测算。因此,本文依据2008年SNA和现有的统计资料,在合理估计1978年以来各地区的当期R&D投资的基础上,采用永续盘存法科学测算了1978-2015年各地区的R&D资本存量数据。结果显示：1978年以来,中国各地区R&D资本存量总体上呈快速上升趋势;各地区R&D资本存量年均增速与各地区GDP年均增速,具有正相关关系;中国的R&D资本存量主要由东部地区贡献,东部地区是中国研发创新的主要区域。     

How complex is your love? The case of romantic compromises and polyamory

This article highlights a somewhat neglected aspect of love (and of emotions in general): their complexity. We suggest distinguishing between three major related types of emotional complexity: emotional diversity, emotional ambivalence, and emotional behavior. The notion of emotional complexity has far‐reaching implications for understanding emotions and our wellbeing. This is illustrated by examining the notion of emotional complexity in two common yet complex phenomena in the romantic realm: romantic compromises and polyamory.