THE GREAT OVERESTIMATION: TAX DATA AND INEQUALITY MEASUREMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1913–1943

Historical measures of income inequality in the United States must grapple with the challenge of data quality. We examine one such problem affecting the well-known estimates of income inequality produced by Piketty and Saez (2003) using the records of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Prior to 1943, incomes were self-reported. Combined with lax enforcement on the part of the IRS, self-reporting of incomes could provide a misleading portrait of the income distribution. To test the accuracy of IRS records, we compare them to independently tabulated state income tax returns between 1919 and 1945 from states with more comprehensive and rigorously enforced tax collection procedures. State income tax records show lower overall levels of income inequality than IRS records. However, we still find that top income concentrations declined across the period between 1929 and World War II. These findings attest to the sensitivity of distributional estimation to the reporting selectivity and economic quality of underlying tax data, suggesting that the existing IRS-derived series systematically overstates top-income concentration in the interwar period. (JEL H2, N32, D31, E01)     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Unequal returns to social capital: the study of Malays in Singapore through a network lens

Using the concepts of ‘social capital deficit’ and ‘return deficit’, this study considers the social network aspects of social disadvantage among Malays in Singapore, as compared to Singaporean Chinese. Analysing a 2005 representative survey, we find Malays have less social capital than Chinese, a social capital deficit partly explained by their lower educational attainment. We find no return deficit in earnings: that is, every additional unit of social capital increases earnings equally for Chinese and Malays. However, we find return deficits in education: every additional unit of social capital (e.g. ties to educated parents) increases educational attainment more for Chinese than Malays. In all, this study offers a social capital explanation for Malay ‘plight’, complementing the more conventional explanations of human and economic capital.     

A Survey of Campus Peer Counseling Activities

Abstract

The directors of counseling services at 200 colleges and universities were contacted by mail and asked to complete a survey regarding peer counseling activities on their campuses. One hundred fifty-six responses to this questionnaire were received; one hundred twenty-two indicated ongoing peer counseling activities in a wide variety of settings at their respective campuses. The most common client concerns confronted by peer counselors involved academic difficulties and relationships with friends and lovers. The survey identified a variety of peer counseling training programs, from one-weekend, intensive encounter-type experiences to full-year credit courses in counseling and therapy. Also examined were the funding resources available for peer counseling centers, which often proved quite marginal, and the amount of interaction between student counselors and professional mental health service staff members. Although the authors have been able to uncover a great many peer counseling programs on college campuses, there is a dearth of systematic research evaluating the effectiveness of the services provided by these centers or the appropriateness of various peer counselor training programs. Such work should be encouraged.     

Population planning in Asia in the 1970s

Analysis of data from various phases of a study of post-partum amenorrhoea in Bangladesh illustrated good aggregate consistency of response on menstrual status, but less individual consistency on duration of post-partum amenorrhoea. Using life table techniques, the median duration of amenorrhoea was calculated as 19.9 months for women with births between February and September 1974. There were substantial seasonal variations in duration, with the median decreasing from 21.5 months for women with February births to 16.9 months for those with September births. By contrast, the median duration of post-partum amenorrhoea varies by only two months for women in the lowest and highest quartiles of weight and weight for height. The seasonal pattern was similar for all weight groups.     

Quality and the 2010 Census

The U.S. Census Bureau has a long tradition of evaluating the results of its censuses. This paper presents evaluation results from the 2010 Census, comparing them to earlier results. The paper discusses net coverage at the national and state level, as well as by age, sex, race, and ethnic group. It discusses components of error, including estimated number missed and counted in error. It also presents data on whole-person and item imputation.