STATISTICAL VERSUS SALES FORCE–EXECUTIVE OPINION SHORT RANGE FORECASTS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS CASE STUDY

This paper presents a comparison of statistical techniques versus a sales force-executive opinion approach to forecasting single item demand over a five year period for a single company. Three statistical techniques are used: Winter's three parameter exponential smoothing model, Brown's harmonic model, and Box-Jenkins methodology. These techniques are compared against the company's forecasts and actual sales for a five year period. The results indicate an interesting area for further research.     

EVALUATING PENSION PORTABILITY REFORMS: THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1986 AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ABSTRACT

This article exploits a change in the vesting rules for employer‐sponsored pension plans introduced by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to identify the causal effect of pension portability legislation on workers' voluntary mobility decisions. We pool data from different years of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to estimate the impact of this reform using difference‐in‐differences methods. Our results suggest that the reform had a positive and significant impact on voluntary job mobility of the treatment group. (JEL J24, J44, J62, J63, J68)     

Understanding Contemporary Challenges to INGO Legitimacy: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Perspectives

In recent years, INGO legitimacy has been subject to growing scrutiny from analysts and practitioners alike. Critics have highlighted a backlash against INGOs in the Global South, a growing mismatch between INGO capacities and contemporary global challenges, and diminishing support for norms such as democracy and human rights that underpin INGOs’ work. Although these problems have attracted significant attention within the academic literature, this article argues that existing explorations of INGO legitimacy have broadly conformed either to a top-down approach focused on global norms and institutions or a bottom-up approach focused on the local dynamics surrounding states and populations in the Global South. We suggest that this divide is unhelpful for understanding the current predicament and propose a new approach, which pays closer attention to the interaction between bottom-up and top-down dimensions, and to historical context. This new approach can provide important insights into current debates about the future roles and internal structures of INGOs.     

Mindfulness and Interpersonal Communication

Many social problems can be traced to interpersonal communicationdifficulties, just as many proposed interventions to solve social ills also depend on effective interpersonal communication. This article examines three potential relationships between states of mind and social interaction followed by illustrations from research related to five exemplar social issues—developing effective programs for solving workplace communicationproblems, training the public to detect scams and hoaxes, reducing stereotyping and cross-cultural misunderstanding, managing interpersonal conflict, and constructing effective public health campaigns. We conclude by considering the likely inhibiting and facilitating effects of mindfulness-mindlessness on socially relevant transactions.     

Tutorial and Survey

This paper illustrates the use of the Box-Jenkins methodology by analyzing the Ohio Electrical Power Consumption time series. The three basic analytical steps discussed are the following: 1) Model identification - by matching sample autocorrelation functions against theoretical autocorrelation functions. 2) Non-linear estimation of parameters - by minimizing the sum of the squared residuals. 3) Diagnostic checking - by analyzing the pattern of the autocorrelation function of the residuals. Regular and adaptive forecasts are then developed using the appropriate model that emerges from the time series analysis.     

Dogmatism and Competitive Relationships Between Soccer Teams

In the framework of intergroup relationships, Social Identity Theory (SIT) and Real Conflict Theory (RCT) both hypothesize a positive relationship between social identification and ethnocentrism in threatening en-vironments. The RCT proposes that conflict for scarce resources between groups determines ingroup identification while the SIT predicts that intensity of social identification leads to outgroup hostility in threatening contexts. An examination of these relationships is undertaken in a competitive sports context with the help of the dogmatism scale. Relationships between Belief and Activism Toward One Cause, as a social identification measure, and Out-group Authoritarian Intolerance, as an ethnocentrism measure were studied across two experimental conditions (neutral vs. competitive). The results describe a positive effect of Out-group Authoritarian Intolerance, measured in the neutral condition, on Belief and Activism Toward One Cause, measured in the competitive condition, validating RCT. The results are discussed based on complementary individual and collective analyses (i.e., dogmatism and intergroup relationship theories) of ethnocentrism.     

Validation of Multimedia Models Assessing Exposure to PAHs—The SOLEX Study

Polluted soils have become a public health problem. While population exposure to soil pollutants is generally quantified using multimedia models, their estimations have not been validated, and studies that attempted to do so are scarce. The objective of the SOLEX study was to compare the predictions of pyrene exposure levels (converted into 1 hydroxypyrene) computed by several models with the results of urinary 1-hydropyrene (1-HOP) assays among 110 employees working at three sites polluted during their past use as manufactured gas plants. Four models were used: AERIS (Canada), CalTOX (California, USA), CLEA (UK), and HESP (The Netherlands). Three occupational exposure scenarios--with office, mixed, and outdoor workers--were constructed, based upon job activities during two measurement campaigns, one in winter and one in summer. The exposure levels estimated by the four models could differ markedly (from 7 up to 80 times) according to the exposure scenario. Also, the predominant exposure routes differed according to the model (direct soil ingestion for HESP and CalTOX, inhalation for AERIS, and dermal absorption for CLEA). The predictions of CalTOX are consistent with the 1-HOP measurements for all the scenarios. For HESP, the consistency is observed for the scenarios, office and mixed, for which the pyrene level in the soil is low. AERIS and CLEA yield results that are systematically above the 1-HOP measurements. This study confirms that validation of the models is crucial and points out to the need to proceed to assess components of the models that are the most influential using appropriate statistical analysis in combination with true field data.