"SECRET BALLOTS" AND SELF-REPORTS IN AN EXIT-POLL EXPERIMENT

A controlled exit-poll experiment on Election Day (November3, 1992) shows that refusals to answer questions and other evasiveforms of responding were significantly lower when respondentswere given a self-administered "secret-ballot" questionnairethan when they were interviewed face-to-face. While there weresome suggestive interactions of this mode-of-data collectioneffect with age and sex, and with the partisan atmosphere ofthe precinct in which the interviews were conducted, they wereborderline in significance, inconsistent in pattern, or difficuitto interpret. More important, comparisons with official electionreturns (the truth) indicated that the secret-ballot techniquewas more accurate than were face-to-face interviews in estimatingthe final outcome on the most socially sensitive of three self-reportedvotes: a vote for or against a tax levy for elderly services.Using a genuine secret ballot in the tradition of the olderGallup preelection polls can thus increase the validity of self-reportsin exit polls today.     

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

A simple,automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator based on conditional densities

The standard approach to non-parametric bivariate density estimation is to use a kernel density estimator. Practical performance of this estimator is hindered by the fact that the estimator is not adaptive (in the sense that the level of smoothing is not sensitive to local properties of the density). In this paper a simple, automatic and adaptive bivariate density estimator is proposed based on the estimation of marginal and conditional densities. Asymptotic properties of the estimator are examined, and guidance to practical application of the method is given. Application to two examples illustrates the usefulness of the estimator as an exploratory tool, particularly in situations where the local behaviour of the density varies widely. The proposed estimator is also appropriate for use as a pilot estimate for an adaptive kernel estimate, since it is relatively inexpensive to calculate.     

Home,work and community: skilled international migration and expatriate women in Singapore

While skilled labour migration across international borders is a phenomenon of increasing significance in the age of globalization and an important component in the production of global cities, it has not been given sufficient attention in traditional migration analyses.
Recent research has focused on institutional mechanisms regulating the patterns of skill transfer rather than the individual experience of being part of the international labour circuit. Women, in particular, have usually been relegated to the role of "trailing spouses" and are generally invisible in the migration process.
Using a questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews, this article attempts to reinstate the importance of women's roles by portraying them as active agents who adopt a range of strategies in negotiating the move and coming to terms with the transformations wrought by the move in the domains of home, work and community. It argues that skilled labour migration is a strongly gendered process, producing different sets of experiences for the men and women involved in it.
While international circulation often represents "career moves" for expatriate men, their spouses often experience a devalorization of their productive functions and a relegation to the domestic sphere. As an adaptive strategy, expatriate women often turn to the social and community sphere to reach for grounding in their lives.
The article also points to the diversity of "expatriate experiences": while "western" expatriates tend to recreate a more exclusive world by drawing on strong institutional support, "Asian" expatriates find that they have to navigate much finer social and cultural divides between themselves and the host society.     

A Population Approach to Analysis of Variance Models

Several authors have contributed to what can now be considered a rather complete theory for analysis of variance in cases with orthogonal factors. By using this theory on an assumed basic reference population, the orthogonality concept gives a natural definition of independence between factors in the population. By looking upon the treated units in designed experiments as a formal sample from a future population about which we want to make inference, a natural parametrization of expectations and variances connected to such experiments arises. This approach seems to throw light upon several controversial questions in the theory of mixed models. Also, it gives a framework for discussing the choice of conditioning in models     

Severely Traumatized Siblings: A Treatment Strategy

Siblings who have suffered severe trauma and disrupted attachment relate to one another in ways that interfere with individual development, the chance to benefit from connections with adults, the establishment of healthy sibling relationships, and the working through of traumatic experiences. The authors use case examples to illustrate four distinct sibling patterns: absent, adult lockout, half and half, and trauma shield. The authors highlight the importance of recognizing these types and then varying the therapist's treatment stance to pursue five goals. These include suspending problematic sibling relationships to create room for bonding with caring adults, transferring attachment behaviors and impulses to a receptive adult, resuming healthy individual development, forming more adaptive sibling connections, and expressing shared traumatic content.     

The paradox of multiple elections

Assume that voters must choose between voting yes (Y) and voting no (N) on three propositions on a referendum. If the winning combination is NYY on the first, second, and third propositions, respectively, the paradox of multiple elections is that NYY can receive the fewest votes of the 2³ = 8 combinations. Several variants of this paradox are illustrated, and necessary and sufficient conditions for its occurrence, related to the “incoherence” of support, are given. The paradox is shown, via an isomorphism, to be a generalization of the well-known paradox of voting. One real-life example of the paradox involving voting on propositions in California, in which not a single voter voted on the winning side of all the propositions, is given. Several empirical examples of variants of the paradox that manifested themselves in federal elections – one of which led to divided government – and legislative votes in the US House of Representatives, are also analyzed. Possible normative implications of the paradox, such as allowing voters to vote directly for combinations using approval voting or the Borda count, are discussed. Received: 31 July 1996 / Accepted: 1 October 1996     

Lessons from the trenches in physician integration

Beyond the theoretical basis for integration, three core considerations stand out as the primary reasons for pursuing integration from a physician's perspective. In the authors' experience, the ability to make a case for physician integration stands or falls based on the ability of the integrated delivery system to address these considerations: Gain greater access to capital; develop human resources with talents in managed care and the full spectrum of care services; and sustain an information infrastructure. This article explores the lessons learned in pursuing physician integration.