Predictability measures for ridge regression models

Methods for flagging new points that are not similar to the original data used for developing a ridge regression equation are discussed. Using the regression equation for predictions should be avoided for these dissimilar points. An example quantifies the sample space limitations for using biased prediction when multicollinearity is present.     

Editorial: Autobiographical Note and Requiem

Population and Environment -     

Estimating and Testing Nonlinear Local Dependence Between Two Time Series

ABSTRACT

The most common measure of dependence between two time series is the cross-correlation function. This measure gives a complete characterization of dependence for two linear and jointly Gaussian time series, but it often fails for nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, such as the ARCH-type models used in finance. The cross-correlation function is a global measure of dependence. In this article, we apply to bivariate time series the nonlinear local measure of dependence called local Gaussian correlation. It generally works well also for nonlinear models, and it can distinguish between positive and negative local dependence. We construct confidence intervals for the local Gaussian correlation and develop a test based on this measure of dependence. Asymptotic properties are derived for the parameter estimates, for the test functional and for a block bootstrap procedure. For both simulated and financial index data, we construct confidence intervals and we compare the proposed test with one based on the ordinary correlation and with one based on the Brownian distance correlation. Financial indexes are examined over a long time period and their local joint behavior, including tail behavior, is analyzed prior to, during and after the financial crisis. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Factors that may influence midwives work-related stress and burnout

Research questionTo determine the incidence and level of work-related stress and burnout in midwives and contributing and protective demographic factors that may influence those levels.Participants and methodAll registered midwives (152) working in two public hospital maternity units within the same health service district in NSW completed the Maslach Burnout Inventory Human Services Survey and a demographic survey including care model, shift work, lifestyle data and exercise level.FindingsThere was a response rate of 36.8% with 56 (56/152) midwives completing the surveys. Almost two thirds (60.7%) of midwives in this sample experienced moderate to high levels of emotional exhaustion, a third (30.3%) scoring low personal accomplishment and a third (30.3%) experiencing depersonalization related to burnout. Significant differences were found among groups of midwives according to years in the profession, shifts worked, how many women with multiple psychosocial issues were included in the midwife's workload and the midwife's uptake of physical exercise. Those midwives who had spent longer in the profession and exercised scored low burnout levels.ConclusionThe impact of years in the profession, shifts worked, how many women with multiple psychosocial issues were included in their workload and the midwife's level of exercise significantly affected how these midwives dealt with burnout and provided care for women. As the response rate was low, and the study cannot be generalised to the entire midwifery workforce but provides important insights for further research. Understanding factors related to burnout can benefit health care institutions financially and in terms of human costs, especially in view of consistent international shortages of midwives.     

Social class as a dimension in casework judgment 1

With few exceptions, outcome studies evaluating batterer treatment groups are inconclusive at best and, at worst, label such treatment programs as ineffectual. This qualitative research study was developed in an effort to understand the forces behind how positive change either happens or is subverted. Through analysis of treatment groups for batterers, the study investigated two questions: How do batterer treatment groups affect the psychological defenses of the members? What types of group dynamics emerge in offender treatment that might be unique to this population and promote defensive change? The theoretical frameworks used in this project include constructs from ego psychology related to defensive maturity and the curative factors in group process, articulated by Yalom (2005).     

An evaluation of repertory grid technique in social work education

Social work educators need to develop a repertoire of methods to help students and practitioners reflect on and learn from practice. A matched subjects experimental research design was used to evaluate the use of repertory grid technique with cohorts of students from two social work qualifying courses. Students found completing and discussing computer analyses of grids a useful adjunct to conventional supervision. Grid completion was also associated with improved course performance.     

Promising Innovations in Child Welfare Education: Findings From a National Initiative

For many years, schools of social work have engaged in partnerships, especially with public child welfare agencies, to prepare a competent and professional child welfare workforce through the mechanism of Title IV-E training. In 2008 the National Child Welfare Workforce Institute (NCWWI) established an additional resource for preparing students in social work schools for child welfare practice. Twelve NCWWI traineeship programs supported a diverse group of BSW and MSW students from 2008 to 2013 and prepared them for client-centered practice informed by child welfare and leadership competencies. This article highlights a curriculum innovation in an MSW program and a field innovation in a BSW program that were designed to increase the readiness of BSW and MSW students for child welfare practice.