An Adaptive,Rate‐Optimal Test of a Parametric Mean‐Regression Model Against a Nonparametric Alternative

We develop a new test of a parametric model of a conditional mean function against a nonparametric alternative. The test adapts to the unknown smoothness of the alternative model and is uniformly consistent against alternatives whose distance from the parametric model converges to zero at the fastest possible rate. This rate is slower than n^−1/2. Some existing tests have nontrivial power against restricted classes of alternatives whose distance from the parametric model decreases at the rate n^−1/2. There are, however, sequences of alternatives against which these tests are inconsistent and ours is consistent. As a consequence, there are alternative models for which the finite‐sample power of our test greatly exceeds that of existing tests. This conclusion is illustrated by the results of some Monte Carlo experiments.     

Hypothesis group testing for disjoint pairs

Classical group testing (CGT) is a widely applicable biotechnical technique used to identify a small number of distinguished objects from a population when the presence of any one of these distinguished objects among a group of others produces an observable result. This paper discusses a variant of CGT called group testing for disjoint pairs (GTAP). The difference between the two is that in GTDP, the distinguished items are pairs from, not individual objects in, the population. There are several biological examples of when this abstract model applies. One biological example is DNA hybridization. The presence of pairs of hybridized DNA strands can be detected in a pool of DNA strands. Another situation is the detection of binding interactions between prey and bait proteins. This paper gives a random pooling method, similar in spirit to hypothesis testing, which identifies pairs of objects from a population that collectively have an observable function. This method is simply to apply, achieves good results, is amenable to automation and can be easily modified to compensate for testing errors. M.A. Bishop is supported by AFOSR FA8750-06-C-0007. A.J. Macula is supported by NSF-0436298, AFOSR FA8750-06-C-0007.     

Perestroika,Second Edition

The author assesses the prospects of a "second perestroika" based on his interpretation of modern Russian history in terms of the concepts of revolution and counterrevolution.     

The refusenik community in Moscow: social networks and models of identification

Since the late nineteenth century the history of Russian Jewry has been one of contradictory trends: on the one hand, large-scale migration and resettlement (both abroad and in the major industrial and cultural centres of Russia/the USSR/the former Soviet Union [FSU]); and, on the other hand, attempts to (re-)establish a full Jewish life and adapt it to changing conditions. The refuseniks – a small but notable group of Soviet Jewish activists who were prevented by the Soviet authorities from leaving the country for Israel – melded both trends. Despite extensive literature on this subject, we are still lacking satisfactory answers to a few important questions, dealing with the factors in the creation of the Zionist refusenik community, its organisational frameworks, and the social and political legacy of the refuseniks for Jewish communities of the post-Soviet space and the “new Russian Jewish diaspora.” This article addresses refusenik associations in Moscow and in some other places as a “community in the making,” which between the early 1970s and mid 1980s, a period of Jewish national awakening in the USSR, experienced a process of gradual transformation from an amorphous semi-structured entity to a more institutionalised structure.     

Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday

We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.     

Recent Life Expectancy Divergence in Baltic Countries

Until the end of the 1990s, mortality patterns and trends in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were remarkably similar. However, from the year 2000 onwards, life expectancy trends in the three countries started to diverge. In particular, sustainable progress in Estonia over the period 2000–2007 contrasts with stagnation in Latvia, and even worsening trends in Lithuania. These contradictory changes seem to be mainly explained by contrasting dynamics in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, external causes of death and digestive system diseases. Whereas cardiovascular and external-cause mortality declined in Estonia and Latvia, worsening or stagnation of mortality from these causes of death was observed in Lithuania. The negative mortality changes in Lithuania were also reinforced by a striking increase in mortality from alcohol-related digestive system diseases. The findings suggest that the divergence in health trends between the three countries may be attributable to their varying degrees of success in implementing structural health care reforms and specific health policy measures. By contrast, the very recent improvement (since 2008) is parallel in the three countries and is largely because of the introduction of rather similar anti-alcohol measures.     

The Life Values of the Russian Population

Based on the results of an international comparison, today's average Russian is characterized by a higher degree of caution (or even fear) and a more pronounced need to be protected by a strong state; and is an individual who has less need for novelty, creativity, freedom, and independence and is less inclined to take risks. At the same time, Russians exhibit a strong sense of self-interest, personal success, and power rather than concern for others, which may be the result of a rapid abandonment of Soviet welfarism. In general, though, data do not show Russians to be uniquely submissive to authority. Magun and Rudnev conclude that the current balance between the values of competitive individualism and solidarity in Russian society is not optimal.