Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.     

Critical phenomena in complex contagions

Why do some contagions “go viral” and others do not? Research on “small world” networks (Watts and Strogatz, 1998) shows how a very small number of long-range ties that bridge between clusters can allow contagions to spread almost as rapidly as on a random network of equal density. Recent research shows how long-range ties that accelerate the spread of information and disease can impede the spread of complex contagions—behaviors, beliefs and preferences that diffuse via contact with multiple adopters ( Centola and Macy, 2007). In confirming this result analytically and extending the analysis from small world to power law networks, we discovered that complex contagions require a critical mass of infected nodes that corresponds to a phase transition in the ability of the contagion to take advantage of the “shortcuts” created by long-range ties. We demonstrate how this critical mass is related to the dynamics of the contagion process and identify implications for modeling behaviors that spread via social influence, such as viral marketing and social movements.     

The Community's Role in the Prevention and Study of Crime

Vladimir S. Malakhov outlines state-sponsored efforts to create a civic nation-state, which Gleb Pavlovskii and others have called "The Russian Project." The author points out that the multicultural, multiethnic, and multiconfessional legacies of "Rossiia"^* [Russia] make it extraordinarily difficult to change the meaning of the ethnonational term "Russian." Based on diverse United States and European histories, and despite their mixed experiences of immigrant incorporation, he advocates a return to the credibility of the term "multicultural." Toward this end, he suggests that the multiethnic meaning of "Rossiia" is being restored as the best defense against Russian chauvinist nationalism.     

The peculiar pattern of mortality of Jews in Moscow, 1993-95

Russian Jews, particularly men, have a large mortality advantage compared with the general Russian population. We consider possible explanations for this advantage using data on 445,000 deaths in Moscow, 1993-95. Log-linear analysis of the distribution of deaths by sex, age, ethnic group, and cause of death reveals a relatively high concentration of endogenous causes and a relatively low concentration of exogenous and behaviourally induced causes among Jews. There is also a significant concentration of deaths from breast cancer among Jewish women. Mortality estimates using the 1994 micro-census population as the denominator reveal an 11-year Russian-Jewish gap in the life expectancy of males at age 20, but only a 2-year life-expectancy gap for women. Only 40 per cent of the Russian-Jewish difference for men, but the entire difference for women, can be eliminated by adjustment for educational differences between the two ethnic groups. Similarities with other Jewish populations and possible explanations are discussed.     

Linearizable special cases of the QAP

We consider special cases of the quadratic assignment problem (QAP) that are linearizable in the sense of Bookhold. We provide combinatorial characterizations of the linearizable instances of the weighted feedback arc set QAP, and of the linearizable instances of the traveling salesman QAP. As a by-product, this yields a new well-solvable special case of the weighted feedback arc set problem.     

The Travelling Salesman Problem on Permuted Monge Matrices

We consider traveling salesman problems (TSPs) with a permuted Monge matrix as cost matrix where the associated patching graph has a specially simple structure: a multistar, a multitree or a planar graph. In the case of multistars, we give a complete, concise and simplified presentation of Gaikov's theory. These results are then used for designing an O(m3 + mn) algorithm in the case of multitrees, where n is the number of cities and m is the number of subtours in an optimal assignment. Moreover we show that for planar patching graphs, the problem of finding an optimal subtour patching remains NP-complete.     

Russian labour culture: how it looks in comparison

Assuming that national culture should not be disregarded especially at a time of massive economic restructuring as having serious influence on labour relations and type of management, we make an attempt to reveal its features empirically and compare them with those of other national cultures, identifying whose cultural characteristics are closest to the Russian one. The article examines Russian labour culture by measuring it with the help of Hofstede's universal indices in an empirical study of employees of four industrial enterprises in different parts of Russia. The measuring tool allows a comparative perspective; we also offer interpretations of the obtained indices, enriching them by illustrations from informal interviews with the employees of those enterprises. The results brought Russia close to a number of European countries that had welfare-state orientation and strong institutional and historical connections with Russia, such as Finland, Germany, Austria and Israel. The article argues that experience in the field of labour relations and organizational models of these countries should not be discounted, although reformers often place their hopes mainly on the Anglo-Saxon or American models.     

Research of injuries of passengers in city buses as a consequence of non-collision effects

In this study, a research of injuries of passengers in city buses is presented, which are not a consequence of collision of buses with other objects. The number of injured passengers in the territory of Belgrade was registered, during three consecutive years. Most frequently injured body part was the head, while women over the age of 60 are the most vulnerable population of passengers. The most often reason for the appearance of injuries was the effect of acceleration. Also, it is pointed out to the importance of consideration of the problem of multiple injuries. These injuries are more complex than the individual ones, and they may indicate to the existence of greater omissions in the design of the interior of the bus. Proposals for certain system solutions, as well as some recommendations for designing are given, which can improve the safety of passengers who use the city bus as a means of transportation.     

Three measures of longevity: Time trends and record values

This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth century: it moved from a plateau level, around age 80, to having a similar pace of increase as that observed for the mean and the median in most recent years. These findings explain the previously observed uninterrupted increase in the record life expectancy. The cause of this increase has changed over time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death.     

Effects of unstratified and centre‐stratified randomization in multi‐centre clinical trials

This paper deals with the analysis of randomization effects in multi‐centre clinical trials. The two randomization schemes most often used in clinical trials are considered: unstratified and centre‐stratified block‐permuted randomization. The prediction of the number of patients randomized to different treatment arms in different regions during the recruitment period accounting for the stochastic nature of the recruitment and effects of multiple centres is investigated. A new analytic approach using a Poisson‐gamma patient recruitment model (patients arrive at different centres according to Poisson processes with rates sampled from a gamma distributed population) and its further extensions is proposed. Closed‐form expressions for corresponding distributions of the predicted number of the patients randomized in different regions are derived. In the case of two treatments, the properties of the total imbalance in the number of patients on treatment arms caused by using centre‐stratified randomization are investigated and for a large number of centres a normal approximation of imbalance is proved. The impact of imbalance on the power of the study is considered. It is shown that the loss of statistical power is practically negligible and can be compensated by a minor increase in sample size. The influence of patient dropout is also investigated. The impact of randomization on predicted drug supply overage is discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.