Trends in inequality in infant mortality in the north of England, 1921–1973, and their association with urban and social structure

Summary.  The paper analyses a time series of infant mortality rates in the north of England from 1921 to the early 1970s at a spatial scale that is more disaggregated than in previous studies of infant mortality trends in this period. The paper describes regression methods to obtain mortality gradients over socioeconomic indicators from the censuses of 1931, 1951, 1961 and 1971 and to assess whether there is any evidence for widening spatial inequalities in infant mortality outcomes against a background of an overall reduction in the infant mortality rate. Changes in the degree of inequality are also formally assessed by inequality measures such as the Gini and Theil indices, for which sampling densities are obtained and significant changes assessed. The analysis concerns a relatively infrequent outcome (especially towards the end of the period that is considered) and a high proportion of districts with small populations, so necessitating the use of appropriate methods for deriving indices of inequality and for regression modelling.     

A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

Measuring the impact of prices on inequality: With applications to Thailand and Korea

This paper develops a new methodology to compute social cost of living indices. These indices indicate whether or not price changes have a favourable (or unfavourable) impact on the welfare of the poor. The indices are derived on the basis of two alternative classes of social welfare functions. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to compute social cost of living indices for Thailand and Korea. The empirical results show that changes in prices have generally affected the poor more adversely than the non-poor.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Cox's Regression Model Under Case–Cohort Sampling

Abstract.  Case–cohort sampling aims at reducing the data sampling and costs of large cohort studies. It is therefore important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a case–cohort study based on the proportional hazards assumption. The estimator shows finite sample properties that improve on those by the Self & Prentice [Ann. Statist. 16 (1988)] estimator. The size of the gain by the MLE varies with the level of the disease incidence and the variability of the relative risk over the considered population. The gain tends to be small when the disease incidence is low. The MLE is found by a simple EM algorithm that is easy to implement. Standard errors are estimated by a profile likelihood approach based on EM-aided differentiation.     

中韩日三国未来在经济上的竞争与合作

一、导言(一)改变中的世界经济数千年前,古代中国在比较厚实的基础之上,就已发展出灿烂的文化,而这先进的文化与经济也通过“丝绸之路”向西方传播。     

Differentials in Adult Mortality and Activity Limitation by Years of Education in the United States at the End of the 1990s

This study examines mortality differentials and health disparities between educational groups within the 1998 adult population (ages 25 and older) in the United States. Mortality differentials are measured using average life expectancy and health disparities by expected years without activity limitation. The results indicate that for both sexes, higher education is associated with higher life expectancy. Those with higher levels of education also have higher life expectancy without activity limitation. Adults with higher education can also expect to enjoy a greater percentage of their expected lives free of any form of activity limitation. At each level of education, adult females have a higher level of activity limitation compared to adult males. At the same level of education, adult females expect to enjoy smaller percentages of their remaining lives free of activity limitation compared to adult males of the same age.     

Physical fitness effects on substance abuse risk factors and use patterns

In this study, seventy-four adolescents in either a school, community or hospital based drug intervention program received and eight to nine week structured fitness activity class as an integrated element of their respective prevention or treatment program. Prepost assessments indicated significant gains in the field fitness tests of one mile run, 1 minute situp, 1 minute pushup, percent fat and flexibility for the total sample. Based upon prepost change on the one mile run time (less than 1:00) subjects were categorized as improvers (n = 38) and non-improvers (n = 36). Improvers demonstrated a significant increase in the self concept risk factor (Piers Harris Self Concept Scale) and a significant decrease in anxiety and depression risk factors (General Well-Being Scale) compared to the non-improvers. At posttest, the improvers self reported substance use patterns were significantly lower compared to the non-improvers for percentage of the sample who were multiple drug users and alcohol uses per week and were significantly higher for the percentage of the sample demonstrating total abstinence. These findings are suggestive of the usefulness of physical training as a supplemental intervention for adolescent substance abusers.