Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation procedures for binary and continuous responses utilizing a gain function

One of the main aims of early phase clinical trials is to identify a safe dose with an indication of therapeutic benefit to administer to subjects in further studies. Ideally therefore, dose‐limiting events (DLEs) and responses indicative of efficacy should be considered in the dose‐escalation procedure. Several methods have been suggested for incorporating both DLEs and efficacy responses in early phase dose‐escalation trials. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a Bayesian adaptive approach based on one binary response (occurrence of a DLE) and one continuous response (a measure of potential efficacy) per subject. A logistic regression and a linear log‐log relationship are used respectively to model the binary DLEs and the continuous efficacy responses. A gain function concerning both the DLEs and efficacy responses is used to determine the dose to administer to the next cohort of subjects. Stopping rules are proposed to enable efficient decision making. Simulation results shows that our approach performs better than taking account of DLE responses alone. To assess the robustness of the approach, scenarios where the efficacy responses of subjects are generated from an E _max model, but modelled by the linear log–log model are also considered. This evaluation shows that the simpler log–log model leads to robust recommendations even under this model showing that it is a useful approximation to the difficulty in estimating E _max model. Additionally, we find comparable performance to alternative approaches using efficacy and safety for dose‐finding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

党的执政能力建设和邓小平选人用人理论

党的十六届四中全会通过了《中共中央关于加强党的执政能力建设的决定》。为深刻领会和贯彻落实这一决定中的深化干部人事制度改革,建设一支善于治国理政的高素质干部队伍的要求,本文着重研究探讨了邓小平的选人用人理论的三大方面。这对于我们当前切实加强党的执政能力建设有着一定的现实意义。     

传统形而上学的价值及其限度--从"生命现象"的视角看

反思传统哲学的价值,实质上就是反思传统形而上学的价值。只有把形而上学理解为一种“生命现象”,即一种以理论形式所表达的人们超越“未成年”的幼稚状态并追求自身“成熟状态”或“理想生命”的心理定势和生命冲动。才能抓住形而上学的核心。从“生命现象”的视角出发,将使我们看清形而上学所包含的“启蒙精神”、“反思批判的自由精神”和“乌托邦精神”在促进“人的成熟”方面所具有的积极价值,同时也洞察到由于其“总体主义”、“非历史性”和“绝对主义”原则与真正的“人的成熟状态”之间的内在冲突,因此,形而上学的价值又是有限度的     

Hypergamy Among South Korean Women and Its Implications for the Marriage Rate

Population Research and Policy Review - This study aims to examine how income-based hypergamy among South Korean women affects the marriage rate. In a society that continues to practice income...     

学术史的新探索--《中国学术通史》宋元明卷

在从近代西方全面移植其学科分类体系并将其固定化之前,我国学术界有过不少“学术史”、“学术思想”的研究,其中梁启超的《清代学术概论》和《中国近三百年学术史》,可称是最有影响的代表。随着大学和科研机构在学科建制上的定型化,文学、史学、哲学三大主干鼎立支撑的人文学观念深入人心,上世纪40年代此种名为学术史的研究已经渐少,50年代以后至80年代,更几乎绝迹。学科分类的制度作用,于此可见。但人的思考不会甘于被分类所限制,随着人们对中国文化的认识的深入,从上世纪90年代初一些学者对“学术史研究”的初感兴趣,到90年代中期“中国…     

所谓"围绕规范"--续谈方法论意义上的规范宪法学

在解说性的传统方法仍占主导地位的当下我国宪法学界,方法多元化的现象也已次第呈现,"规范宪法学"或可视为其中一端.它不是完全突兀的个人构想,而是秉承了"规范(性)法学"的深厚传统以及有关"规范宪法"学说的理想;它主张适度地返回规范主义,但又不至于完全退到法律实证主义的立场;它以宪法解释学为核心的方法定位,但又涵盖更多的方法论上的视角和手段;它以三种的姿态力图"围绕规范形成思想",但又不断躬身自问"围绕"什么样的"规范"这一超"法教义学"的终极问题.     

用哲学追求和创造希望--纪念高清海先生逝世一周年

到今年10月,高清海先生离开我们即将整整一周年。先生是当代中国卓有建树的哲学家,在此我无法、也不愿意用寥寥数语来全面概括和评价先生的思想,其范围之广、思虑之深,无法用短短一篇文字抵达其际涯。我只想略微阐释贯穿先生长期的哲学跋涉历程中的一个词汇,一个一再被人提及然而却又最容易被人遗忘的词汇:那就是“希望”,并借此来展示先生广阔的人文世界里一个极为重要的维度,以作为对先生逝世一周年的纪念。正如人们经常提到的,高清海先生最富创造性的哲学探索是从上个世纪80年代开始的,曾先后经历了对前苏联哲学教科书体系的反思和改革、…     

综论天一阁的历史地位

本文从天一阁的悠久历史、藏书楼建筑的示范性、藏书的特识与文人学者互动关系诸方面以及其定位与走向的估测,进行综合论述以肯定其历史地位。     

"积极自由"与"自由个性"——柏林对马克思"自由"概念的误读

马克思的自由概念是扬弃了"积极自由"和"消极自由"的"自由个性"。由于柏林不懂得,马克思是从否定的方面去理解物化的现实的,并且强调的是"抽象的自由"和"现实的自由"之分,从而把马克思的自由概念误解为"积极自由"。在当代中国的语境中,澄清柏林对马克思的误解,科学地阐释马克思的自由概念,具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。     

Bayesian approach to estimation of intraclass correlation using reference prior

For the balanced variance component model when the intraclass correlation coefficient is of interest, Bayesian analysis is often appropriate. Berger and Bernardo’s (1992a) grouped ordering reference prior approach is used to analyze this model. The reference priors are developed and compared for the posterior inference with real and simulated data. We examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability-matching criterion. Further, the reference prior is shown to be good in the sense of correct frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile.