Fehlende und fehlerhafte Daten in der amtlichen Statistik. Neue Herausforderungen und L?sungsans?tze

Zusammenfassung Die Datenerhebungsprozesse in der amtlichen Statistik unterliegen einem tief greifenden Wandel. Zu diesem Wandel haben verschiedene Faktoren beigetragen: So verlangen die Auskunftgebenden oftmals eine spürbare Verringerung der Belastung. Gleichzeitig wünschen viele Nutzer tiefer gegliederte Informationen in einer wachsenden Zahl von Bereichen. Die statistischen ?mter sehen sich dabei mit immer neuen Budgetkürzungen konfrontiert, die ihre Reaktionsm?glichkeiten nicht selten einschr?nken. Schlie?lich ist im Europ?ischen Statistischen System eine weitere Harmonisierung der Datenerhebungsprozesse erforderlich. Der Wandel der Datenerhebungsprozesse hat nahezu alle Bereiche der amtlichen Statistik erfasst. Vielfach ersetzen heute Verwaltungsregister (wie im Fall des Unternehmensregisters oder des geplanten registergestützten Zensus) traditionelle Totalerhebungen. Bei neuen Statistiken tritt nicht selten die Freiwilligkeit der Auskunftserteilung an die Stelle der Auskunftspflicht. In der Unternehmensstatistik werden die Abl?ufe bei Befragung und Aufbereitung darüber hinaus grundlegend ver?ndert, wenn etwa die Unternehmen ihre Angaben automatisch aus dem betrieblichen Rechnungswesen an das statistische Amt senden. In anderen Bereichen erfordert eine gesunkene Teilnahmebereitschaft an Erhebungen den Einsatz zunehmend komplexer Stichprobenverfahren, wie etwa im Fall der Dauerstichprobe befragungsbereiter Haushalte. All diese Ver?nderungen haben erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Messung, insbesondere auf die Behandlung fehlender und fehlerhafter Daten. Die Konzepte zur Messung von Fehlern in statistischen Erhebungen sind h?ufig noch immer ausgerichtet an der traditionellen Prim?rstatistik. Um eine Bewertung der ver?nderten Ans?tze in der Datenerhebung vornehmen zu k?nnen, bedürfen die Fehlertypen daher einer konzeptionellen Neuausrichtung. So unterscheiden sich z. B. registergestützte und traditionelle Erhebungen hinsichtlich der Konstruktion der Grundgesamtheit grundlegend. Mit den genannten Ver?nderungen des Erhebungsprozesses sind zugleich neue Ans?tze zur Erkennung und Korrektur von Antwortausf?llen erforderlich, z. B. im Fall fehlender oder fehlerhafter Werte in Verwaltungsregistern. Unterschiede zwischen den Merkmalsdefinitionen in Verwaltungsregistern und der amtlichen Statistik k?nnen schlie?lich zu neuen Typen von Messfehlern führen, die bislang nur selten Beachtung finden. Dieser Beitrag entwirft ein “Fehlerportfolio”, das bei der ?nderung von Erhebungsprozessen die Auswirkungen auf den Fehler der Ergebnisse bewerten hilft.

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Data collection processes in official statistics are currently facing many pressures. Respondents ask for a reduced response burden. Users ask for more detailed information in a growing number of subject matter areas. Governments restrict the budget, thus at the same time restricting the possible use of data collection methods. And the European Statistical System requires a further harmonisation of the data collection methods used within the member states. These pressures are also reflected by fundamental changes in the way official statistics are collecting data. Administrative registers replaced traditional censuses in many areas (like the population census or in the whole field of business statistics). Voluntary surveys more and more replace surveys with mandatory response. In some fields, the logic of the response process is being radically reshaped: For example, in German business surveys, enterprises can now report their data directly from their Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. And in many areas increasingly complex sampling designs are used in order to enhance the efficiency of the fieldwork and to counteract a growing reluctance to participate in surveys. The paper focuses on the implications of these changes on survey errors. We argue that the concepts used to measure and assess survey errors still reflect the perspective of the ‘traditional’ survey with primary data collection. With the current changes in the data collection processes these concepts are no longer fully appropriate. For example, an assessment of the coverage errors has to take into account the differences in the construction of the target population in registers and traditional censuses. The changes in the response process necessitate changes in the way we measure and correct for nonresponse errors (e. g. detection of erroneous or missing values in registers). Measurement errors have to be conceived differently in order to cover, e. g., errors due to lacks in compliance of statistical concepts with the concepts used in public administration. We propose an ‘error portfolio’ enabling an assessment the impacts of changes in data collection processes on the survey error.

JEL classification C80     

Bequest motives and barriers to giving: The case of direct mail donors

Charitable bequests currently account for 9 percent of overall giving in the United States. In this study we examine the motives for this form of support and the potential barriers to giving perceived by members of bequest societies or legacy clubs solicited through direct mail. Through a series of eight focus groups we delineate the individual motives for offering a bequest, the organizational factors that drive gifts of this type, and the potential barriers that could prevent such a gift from being made. The implications for professional fundraising practice are explored.     

Psychologische Verträge und Arbeitsbeziehungen im Downsizing

Today, human resource downsizing and parallel organizational restructuring are on the agenda of many German companies. These changes not only produce work specific emotions for employees and members of work councils but also change psychological contracts embedded in the regulating context of different co-determination structures. This article presents partial results on the topic, from a research project promoted by the ?Hans-Böckler-Foundation“. It analyses the subjective patterns of interpretation, the employees and the work council–s response to continuous human resource downsizing processes.     

ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF VISITS TO THE DOCTOR

The frequency of doctor consultations has direct consequences for health care budgets, yet little statistical analysis of the determinants of doctor visits has been reported. We consider the distribution of the number of visits to the doctor and, in particular, we model its dependence on a number of demographic factors. Examination of the Australian 1995 National Health Survey data reveals that generalized linear Poisson or negative binomial models are inadequate for modelling the mean as a function of covariates, because of excessive zero counts, and a mean‐variance relationship that varies enormously over covariate values. A negative binomial model is used, with parameter values estimated in subgroups according to the discrete combinations of the covariate values. Smoothing splines are then used to smooth and interpolate the parameter values. In effect the mean and the shape parameters are each modelled as (different) functions of gender, age and geographical factors. The estimated regressions for the mean have simple and intuitive interpretations. However, the dependence of the (negative binomial) shape parameter on the covariates is more difficult to interpret and is subject to influence by extreme observations. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the distribution of the number of doctor consultations in the Statistical Local Area of Ryde, based on population numbers from the 1996 census.     

Psychiatric Rehospitalization of Children and Adolescents: Implications for Social Work Intervention

This study explored factors associated with the psychiatric rehospitalization of children and adolescents. A retrospective archival review was conducted on 403 children and adolescents admitted into an inpatient psychiatric hospital. Results indicated that 16% were readmitted in the same year. Children and adolescents who had a prior history of psychiatric rehospitalization, lived in a residential treatment facility, and had a diagnosis of oppositional/defiant or conduct disorder were more likely to be rehospitalized. Psychosocial factors must be considered in predicting and preventing psychiatric rehospitalization. Clinical social workers should include therapeutic foster care as an option for aftercare placements of youth exhibiting externalizing behaviors and/or with a history of multiple restrictive care placements.     

Comparing Intake Concerns and Goals With Career Counseling Concerns

The authors investigated the relationship among clients' intake concerns, intake goals, and career counseling concerns. Results indicated that intake goals focused primarily on resolving D. E. Super's (1957) exploration stage tasks, but concerns included education‐related issues and ego dystonic emotions related to work. Intake concerns and goals were not related to the content of career counseling. Implications are discussed.