The dynamics of outbreaks: Further simulation experiments with the western tent caterpillar

Summary A stochastic model of western tent-caterpillar populations on southern Vancouver Island was used to assess conditions leading to outbreaks. Three qualitatively different populations-declining, minimal, and recovering-were exposed to six-year climatic sequences incorporating various combinations of good, bad, and mediocre spring weather. Starting populations were either distributed randomly or concentrated in and around small-, medium-, or large refuges. The results showed that virtually any type of population could temporarily increase in numbers during two highly favorable springs. Only a very few vigorous populations, however, could sustain the momentum required to surge to outbreak proportions. No low-quality population could do so. And even vigorous populations could not achieve outbreak status unless they were initially concentrated in a sufficiently large refuge that was close enough to potentially suitable habitats to permit rapid immigration into such places as soon as their local climates improved. The concept of “climatic release” of insect populations is discussed in the light of these findings. The results demonstrate that climatic release is inextricably linked with a population's qualitative profile and spatial distribution. Order of authorship determined by chance.     

Scenario Development for 2050 for the Israeli/Palestinian Water Sector

Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza will grow from its current 10 million to between 14 and 28 million. The scenarios developed are compared to available water resources and assessed for their viability. With all scenarios, except very high population growth in the context of inadequate co-operation between Israel and Palestine, the water resource needs of the entire population can be met. The analysis suggests that water need not be an obstacle to peace or economic development in the region.     

Children placed in out-of-home care: risk factors for involvement with the juvenile justice system

In previous research, child maltreatment has been associated with several negative outcomes, including delinquency. This study uses administrative data to examine risk factors, including the severity and chronicity of maltreatment, for juvenile justice involvement among children, ages 7 to 17, who were placed in out-of-home care in Florida (N = 13,212). The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that among specific types of maltreatment, sexual abuse was associated with the risk of faster placement only in a detention center. Additionally, findings from this study suggest that maltreatment chronicity but not maltreatment severity increases the chances of earlier involvement with the juvenile justice system among children who were placed in an out-of-home care. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

The Real Walmart

The Walmart Company is one of the favorite punching bags of market critics. They accuse this firm of underpaying employees, dealing unfairly with customers, exploiting suppliers, and bankrupting small competitors. Various political jurisdictions have banned this firm from their environs, either implicitly or explicitly. The present article offers a more nuanced position on the behemoth from Arkansas. Although it has some flaws, there is an overwhelming case to be made in its behalf as an employer, competitor, purchaser, benefactor of customers.     

Comment on: On the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic statistics for climate protection and health—dare (more) progress!

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are needed, and at the same time how unsuccessful we are at...     

DEA as a tool for predicting corporate failure and success: A case of bankruptcy assessment

Using an additive super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, this paper develops a new assessment index based on two frontiers for predicting corporate failure and success. The proposed approach is applied to a random sample of 1001 firms, which is composed of 50 large US bankrupt firms randomly selected from Altman's bankruptcy database and 901 healthy matching firms. This sample represents the largest firms that went bankrupt over the period 1991–2004 and represents a full spectrum of industries. Our findings demonstrate that the DEA model is relatively weak in predicting corporate failures compared to healthy firm predictions, and the assessment index improves this weakness by giving the decision maker various options to achieve different precision levels of bankrupt, non-bankrupt, and total predictions.     

Accountability and value for money: a theoretical framework for the relationship in public–private partnerships

There is an implicit assumption in the UK Treasury’s publications on public-private partnerships (PPP)—also more commonly known in the United Kingdom as private finance initiative (PFI)—that accountability and value for money (VFM) are related concepts. While recent academic studies on PPP/PFI (from now on as PFI) have focused on VFM, there is a notable absence of studies exploring the ‘presumed’ relationships between accountability and VFM. Drawing on Dubnick’s (Dubnick and Romzek in American public administration, politics and the management of expectations. Macmillan, New York, 1991, Research in public administration. JAI, Greenwich, 1993; Dubnick in Public service ethics and the cultures of blame, 1996, Public sector ethics: finding and implementing values. Routledge, London, 1998, Int J Org Theory Behav 6(3):405–441, 2003, Public Perform Manage Rev 28(3):376–417, 2005; Dubnick and Justice in But can you trust them to be ethical, 2002) framework for accountability and PFI literature, we develop a research framework for exploring potential relationships between accountability and VFM in PFI projects by proposing alternative accountability cultures, processes and mechanisms for PFI. The PFI accountability model is then exposed to four criteria—warrantability, tractability, measurability and feasibility. Our preliminary interviews provide us guidance in identifying some of the cultures, processes and mechanisms indicated in our model which should enable future researchers to test not only the UK Government’s claimed relationships between accountability and VFM using more specific PFI empirical data, but also a potential relationship between accountability and performance in general.