CREDIT-SCORING MODELS AND THE CUT-OFF POINT—A SIMPLIFICATION

The article presents a simple method for establishing the optimal cut-off point on a credit-scoring index under a variety of conditions. A procedure for choosing an index from several candidates is also proposed, and the use of credit information in such an index is discussed.     

Fill-in of missing data in univariate coastal data

An approach to fill-in of missing data where gaps exist within an otherwise continuous record is addressed. Ad hoc methods of past approaches are discussed and limitations noted. An approach for providing an estimate of data filling consistent with data having a correlation structure is presented. The method provided is an extension of parametric modelling along with additional constraints imposed via a linear filter to account for variance preservation. The method is applied and compared to real data in which a portion of the record has been removed to simulate missing data. Results show the method to provide realistic missing data that preserves the correlation structure and variance of the measured data.     

Considering the Risk of Infection by Cryptosporidium via Consumption of Municipally Treated Drinking Water from a Surface Water Source in a Southwestern Ontario Community

Through the use of case‐control analyses and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), relative risks of transmission of cryptosporidiosis have been evaluated (recreational water exposure vs. drinking water consumption) for a Canadian community with higher than national rates of cryptosporidiosis. A QMRA was developed to assess the risk of Cryptosporidium infection through the consumption of municipally treated drinking water. Simulations were based on site‐specific surface water contamination levels and drinking water treatment log₁₀ reduction capacity for Cryptosporidium. Results suggested that the risk of Cryptosporidium infection via drinking water in the study community, assuming routine operation of the water treatment plant, was negligible (6 infections per 10¹³ persons per day—5th percentile: 2 infections per 10¹⁵ persons per day; 95th percentile: 3 infections per 10¹² persons per day). The risk is essentially nonexistent during optimized, routine treatment operations. The study community achieves between 7 and 9 log₁₀Cryptosporidium oocyst reduction through routine water treatment processes. Although these results do not preclude the need for constant vigilance by both water treatment and public health professionals in this community, they suggest that the cause of higher rates of cryptosporidiosis are more likely due to recreational water contact, or perhaps direct animal contact. QMRA can be successfully applied at the community level to identify data gaps, rank relative public health risks, and forecast future risk scenarios. It is most useful when performed in a collaborative way with local stakeholders, from beginning to end of the risk analysis paradigm.     

Equity, efficiency and inequality traps: A research agenda

This paper discusses a research agenda that arises from unanswered questions and unresolved issues considered in the World Bank’s World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development. After formalizing the key concepts of equity; equality of opportunity; and efficiency, and proposing a definition for an equitable development policy, the paper discusses the concept of inequality traps, around which the research agenda is structured. Four broad groups of research questions are highlighted: those revolving around the measurement of inequality of opportunity and the diagnostics for the existence of an inequality trap; those dealing with the causes of inequality traps; the quantification of their efficiency costs; and those related to how institutions (including governments) evolve to overcome inequality traps. Bourguignon and Ferreira are in the Development Economics Vice-Presidency, The World Bank. Michael Walton is at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Together, they led the team that produced the World Bank’s World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development.     

Technology-Based Interventions and Trainings to Reduce the Escalation and Impact of Alcohol Problems

There has been a rapid increase in the development of technological innovations to reduce the escalation and impact of alcohol problems among adolescents and adults. Technology-based interventions offer the possibility of reaching individuals who otherwise might not seek treatment, (e.g., those in remote areas, those not perceiving a need for treatment, or others who might resist treatment). This article describes 4 case examples of technology-based interventions for risky drinking: (a) a freely available and interactive Web site that provides individualized feedback and information on risky drinking patterns; (b) a brief intervention for adolescents that provides individualized feedback to teens regarding their alcohol use; (c) a computer-delivered screening and brief intervention for alcohol use among pregnant women; and (d) a simulation program for training social workers in screening and brief intervention. These case examples highlight how technology could have a role in addressing the Alcohol Misuse Grand Challenge.     

Promoting choice and control in residential services for people with learning disabilities

This paper discusses the gap between policy goals and practice in residential services for people with learning disabilities. Drawing on a nine month ethnographic study of three residential services, it outlines a range of obstacles to the promotion of choice and control that were routinely observed in the culture and working practices of the services. Issues discussed include conflicting service values and agendas, inspection regimes, an attention to the bigger decisions in a person's life when empowerment could more quickly and effectively be promoted at the level of everyday practice, problems of communication and interpretation and the pervasiveness of teaching. We offer a range of suggestions as to how these obstacles might be tackled.     

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from Rapid Upper Limb Assessment and the Strain Index for tasks in automotive assembly plants

This paper compares the ergonomic risk assessment of a task for the upper extremities as determined by Rapid Upper Extremity Assessment (RULA) and the Strain Index (SI). The ergonomic risk to the upper extremities of 244 automotive assembly plant tasks were evaluated using RULA and SI. The outcomes of each tool were compared for each task. Results from this study provide practical insight into the methods used in each tool. This study compared only the ergonomic risk outputs from each tool; it does not pursue the question of which tool best predicts injury. The kappa score was 0.11, indicating little agreement between the outputs of the two tools. This is supported by the lack of monotonicity with a gamma score of 0.1. These results indicate that the risk assessment outcome of these two ergonomic assessment tools for the upper extremities do not agree.     

宋元转变的汉人精英家族：儒户身份，家学传统与书院

1315年恢复科举制度前后,士大夫家庭已通过兴办书院从而把利用教育作为维护社会地位和经济地位的战略。元初那些通过资助,兴办或以其他形式与书院联系,从而维护儒学学术传统的家族,获得入仕的有利机会。元朝建立后,书院时南方士大夫家庭的命运起着重要作用。书院除了为书院山长提供潜在的仕途外,还帮助元朝指定的儒户,即传统的士绅家庭维持特权。元初,恢复科举制度前,通过建立和扩大书院对当地教育有所贡献的家庭,经常受到官方任命作为奖赏。除了具有教育传统的家庭兴办书院,那些自南宋起就存在的家塾,为元代的书院奠定了基础。元代的书院,既是国家教育机构的组成部分,也是南北方汉族士人——以及非汉族士人——通过坚持儒家教育传统而保持地位的手段。     

Narrative skills predict peer adjustment across elementary school years

The importance of peer adjustment in middle childhood coincides with developing social cognitive and discursive skills that include the ability to make personal narrative accounts. Authoring personal stories promotes attention to the sequence of events, the causal connections between events, the moral significance of what has happened, and the motives that drive human action: these skills may be critical for the establishment and maintenance of satisfying peer relationships during elementary school. This study extended previous research by considering whether narrative skills in written stories about peer interactions predicted peer adjustment. As part of an ongoing longitudinal study, 92 children wrote narratives about peer experiences and completed surveys on measures of peer adjustment for two school years. Cross‐lagged panel models indicated that chronological and thematic coherence and reports of moral concerns in narratives in the first year of the study contributed to lower peer disliking in the subsequent academic year. Reports of motives in Year 1 narratives contributed to lower levels of loneliness and peer victimization in Year 2. Writing personal narratives that are coherent and attentive to moral concerns and motives may be especially beneficial for children who have difficulty connecting with peers. We discuss implications for classroom practices.