左江花山岩画铜鼓考

左江花山岩画文化景观成功入选世界遗产名录后,依然有未解的千年之谜。经对左江花山岩画中铜鼓的族属、类型、传承发展、文化功能等进行多角度考证,确认左江花山岩画所绘铜鼓为骆越人所有,其类型为万家坝型、石寨山型和东山型早期铜鼓;岩画中的铜鼓不仅是部族首领权力的象征,还是通天礼神、汇聚人心、指挥军阵、人神共娱的重要礼器、响器及乐器;东汉马援缴骆越铜鼓后,左江流域骆越后裔仍有用鼓、尚鼓的习俗,这是对左江花山岩画铜鼓的一种继承与发展。与此同时,骆越人先进的青铜铸造技术亦为铜鼓在这一地区的传承与发展提供了物质基础。     

A Seemingly Unrelated Nonparametric Additive Model with Autoregressive Errors

This article considers a nonparametric additive seemingly unrelated regression model with autoregressive errors, and develops estimation and inference procedures for this model. Our proposed method first estimates the unknown functions by combining polynomial spline series approximations with least squares, and then uses the fitted residuals together with the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty to identify the error structure and estimate the unknown autoregressive coefficients. Based on the polynomial spline series estimator and the fitted error structure, a two-stage local polynomial improved estimator for the unknown functions of the mean is further developed. Our procedure applies a prewhitening transformation of the dependent variable, and also takes into account the contemporaneous correlations across equations. We show that the resulting estimator possesses an oracle property, and is asymptotically more efficient than estimators that neglect the autocorrelation and/or contemporaneous correlations of errors. We investigate the small sample properties of the proposed procedure in a simulation study.     

Third-Person Effect,Religiosity and Support for Censorship of Satirical Religious Cartoons

The violent attack on the staff of Charlie Hebdo and an earlier plot to kill cartoonists from the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten raise the issue of censorship of satirical religious cartoons to avoid potential retaliatory violence from those offended by the cartoons. With third-person effect (TPE) as the theoretical underpinning, this study examined the relationship among TPE, religiosity, and support for censorship of religious satirical cartoons. Data were collected in May 2015. A national sample of participants (N=374) was acquired through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. The results show that individuals with a higher degree of religiosity are more likely to support censorship of satirical religious cartoons, and though TPE is not positively correlated to support for censorship, respondents’ perception of the effect of the cartoons on themselves may indicate an increased propensity for supporting censorship.     

Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.     

论和谐政治生态系统与政治宽容调节机制的构建

和谐政治生态突破了传统社会仅从人与人、人与社会的关系角度去理解政治的理论局限,而把政治—社会—自然三者视为三位一体的大系统,把社会更把自然纳入政治视野,运用生态学的多元思维,调整人与人、政治与社会、社会与自然的关系。这是政治价值观的一种转变。理性而客观地分析政治生态系统的本质内蕴和系统结构,并努力寻求积极的、良性运行的和谐政治生态系统和政治宽容调节机制的建构,对和谐社会的践行无疑具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。     

从“物质能量型”到“信息符号型”——论人类文化创造模式的符号化转换

与传统的"物质能量型"文化实践不同,人类文化创造方式在信息化、网络化时代呈现出一种符号化存在,即"信息符号型"文化实践.全球信息技术的符号化、虚拟化发展,为人类文化创造方式的创新提供了发展契机,同时,它使得人类相对独立、有效、全面地开展"信息符号型"文化实践成为可能."信息符号型"文化实践凸显了人类文化创造的符号特性,且越来越成为人类文化创造方式的必然选择,它代表着符号之于文化创造的普遍性和有效性的未来人类文化实践模式.     

医学院校军事理论课教学改革的思考

自1985年开始学生军训试点以来,以集中军训为主要内容的国防教育已为广大高校和社会认可。但是,军事理论课教学仍不被广大师生认可,在教学中仍然存在很多问题,需要进行改革。医学院校军事理论课教学改革可以从以下几个角度进行阐释：军事理论课教学的历史沿革;军事理论课教学改革的实践;对军事理论课教学改革中出现问题的反思。     

“弹性结构”与民国江西乡村改良运动的失效

在红军主力被迫长征、撤离江西后,为了争夺民心,巩固统治,国民党在江西发起了一场大规模的农村现代化改良运动.运动原定时限是1936年底,然而,此时江西农村依然贫穷落后,花了大量人力、物力、财力和精力的江西农村改良运动,却收效甚微,江西农村毫无复兴迹象.出现这种结局的根本原因,就在于传统乡村社会存在着不易改变的"弹性结构",这种结构就像一张巨型的"弹性之网",它可以在很大的程度上消减农村社会改良的绩效.     

A varying coefficient approach to estimating hedonic housing price functions and their quantiles

The varying coefficient (VC) model introduced by Hastie and Tibshirani [26 T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani, Varying-coefficient models, J. R. Statist. Soc. (Ser. B) 55 (1993), pp. 757–796.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] is arguably one of the most remarkable recent developments in nonparametric regression theory. The VC model is an extension of the ordinary regression model where the coefficients are allowed to vary as smooth functions of an effect modifier possibly different from the regressors. The VC model reduces the modelling bias with its unique structure while also avoiding the ‘curse of dimensionality’ problem. While the VC model has been applied widely in a variety of disciplines, its application in economics has been minimal. The central goal of this paper is to apply VC modelling to the estimation of a hedonic house price function using data from Hong Kong, one of the world's most buoyant real estate markets. We demonstrate the advantages of the VC approach over traditional parametric and semi-parametric regressions in the face of a large number of regressors. We further combine VC modelling with quantile regression to examine the heterogeneity of the marginal effects of attributes across the distribution of housing prices.     

Mortality among elder abuse victims in rural Malaysia: A two-year population-based descriptive study

Our study aims at describing mortality among reported elder abuse experiences in rural Malaysia. This is a population-based cohort study with a multistage cluster sampling method. Older adults in Kuala Pilah (n = 1,927) were interviewed from November 2013 to May 2014. Mortality was traced after 2 years using the National Registration Department database. Overall, 139 (7.2%) respondents died. Fifteen (9.6%) abuse victims died compared to 124 (7.0%) not abused. Mortality was highest with financial abuse (13%), followed by psychological abuse (10.8%). There was a dose-response relationship between mortality and clustering of abuse: 7%, 7.7%, and 14.0% for no abuse, one type, and two types or more, respectively. Among abuse victims, 40% of deaths had ill-defined causes, 33% were respiratory-related, and 27% had cardiovascular and metabolic origin. Results suggest a link between abuse and mortality. Death proportions varied according to abuse subtypes and gender.