中国经济结构再平衡与长期增长

在经济新常态下,中国经济由原来的高速增长转向追求中高速和质量型的增长,这是中国经济转型与产业升级的必然选择。解决中国经济突出的结构性问题,实现经济结构转型与产业升级,也就是经济结构再平衡,使经济增长由主要依赖规模扩张转向主要依赖技术进步,是中国经济长期可持续增长的保障,也是中国多年来致力的发展与改革目标,是一项需要长期努力的任务。经济结构再平衡有赖于经济长期发展的支持;经济长期发展和增长周期延长,才能为经济转型与升级的结构再平衡提供时间、空间的回旋。我们要紧紧抓住国家新型城镇化战略和“一带一路”战略的实施契机,按照“四个全面”战略布局的要求,支持民营企业参与中国经济的空间结构再平衡,以全面依法治国推进中国经济结构的再平衡和长期的经济增长。     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling PK/QT relationships from Phase I dose‐escalation trials for drug combinations and developing quantitative risk assessments of clinically relevant QT prolongations

In current industry practice, it is difficult to assess QT effects at potential therapeutic doses based on Phase I dose‐escalation trials in oncology due to data scarcity, particularly in combinations trials. In this paper, we propose to use dose‐concentration and concentration‐QT models jointly to model the exposures and effects of multiple drugs in combination. The fitted models then can be used to make early predictions for QT prolongation to aid choosing recommended dose combinations for further investigation. The models consider potential correlation between concentrations of test drugs and potential drug–drug interactions at PK and QT levels. In addition, this approach allows for the assessment of the probability of QT prolongation exceeding given thresholds of clinical significance. The performance of this approach was examined via simulation under practical scenarios for dose‐escalation trials for a combination of two drugs. The simulation results show that invaluable information of QT effects at therapeutic dose combinations can be gained by the proposed approaches. Early detection of dose combinations with substantial QT prolongation is evaluated effectively through the CIs of the predicted peak QT prolongation at each dose combination. Furthermore, the probability of QT prolongation exceeding a certain threshold is also computed to support early detection of safety signals while accounting for uncertainty associated with data from Phase I studies. While the prediction of QT effects is sensitive to the dose escalation process, the sensitivity and limited sample size should be considered when providing support to the decision‐making process for further developing certain dose combinations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

权力话语视阈下的《愤怒的葡萄》

《愤怒的葡萄》是约翰·斯坦贝克的代表作。小说讲述了在20世纪30年代美国经济萧条背景下,乔德一家人向加利福尼亚逃荒,以图获得美好的生活。然而,现实的残酷造成等待他们的仍然是饥荒、贫穷和失业,美梦的破碎导致成千上万像乔德这样的家庭奋起反抗。以权力话语理论为切入点,对小说中的主要人物进行解读,有助于实现微观权力和宏观权力的结合,进一步加深对小说的理解。     

浅埋大跨黄土隧道下穿公路方案比选

以大跨黄土隧道下穿公路安全施工为背景,对隧道下穿公路的安全施工方案进行研究。基于公路路面破损指数与下穿公路施工风险事件引起路面最大沉降之间的关系确定了隧道下穿施工可能引起的路面最大允许沉降量,并据此制定出施工管理基准,对比分析了CRD和CD法引起的隧道拱顶沉降、地表最大沉降、支护受力和隧道周边地层塑性区特征,建议采用CD法进行下穿施工。下穿孙辛路施工监测结果表明,采用CD法保证了隧道施工安全和孙辛路的正常通行。     

一种应用于药品泡罩包装检测的改进分水岭算法研究

针对分水岭算法存在的过分割问题以及泡罩包装药品图像的特点,提出一种改进的分水岭分割算法对泡罩包装的药品进行分割。该方法将形态学重建运算与使用控制标记符的方法相结合,首先对原图像进行开闭重建,根据邻域像素连通性提取重建后图像的局部极大值作为标记,从而抑制其他的局部极小值,然后依据标记对原始的梯度图像进行修正,最后对修改后的梯度图像进行分水岭分割。试验表明,该方法在缺陷药品检测中,可以有效的抑制传统分水岭的过分割,分割效果良好。     

国家铁路货物整车运输比价关系探讨

铁路整车货运运价率结构对于货运整体收入及市场竞争力具有重要影响。通过对国家铁路货运总体运营价格水平与整车运价率、整车运价率基价1与基价2之间比价关系的分析发现,整车货运比价关系存在的主要问题体现在运价号设置的结构性、对运输成本的抵补、价率水平的均衡性以及与货物品类的对应关系等方面。因此,提出在"一口价"模式下充分考虑运输市场竞争因素、适当调整各运价号基价1与基价2增幅及比值关系、增设新运价号以及与运价浮动管理相结合充分利用3号运价等调整建议。     

残疾人心理健康服务需求的调查分析

本研究使用自编残疾人心理健康服务需求问卷,对864个残疾人进行施测,旨在调查和了解我国残疾人心理健康服务需求的现状,为残疾人心理健康服务体系的建设提供依据。结果表明：超过1／3的残疾人对自身的心理健康水平评价较低,68．4％的残疾人认为心理健康很重要,90．2％的残疾人认为接受心理健康服务很重要,说明残疾人对心理健康服务的认识和接纳程度较高,需求意愿强烈。在具体的服务目标方面,24．5％的残疾人期望通过心理健康服务能够使家庭生活幸福,21．2％的人希望获得良好的社会适应,19．7％的人希望达到人际和谐。服务内容方面,44．7％的人选择了对家庭婚姻问题的心理咨询,39．7％的人选择了提供心理保健知识。在心理服务形式方面,39．9％的人选择求助兼职或专业的心理咨询人员,28．8％的受访者选择了从朋友家人那里寻求支持,而剩余31．4％的受访者选择了什么也不做或自己解决。在具体的形式方面,41．4％的人选择了求助心理热线,38．2％的人选择了专业心理咨询。在选择机构方面,以社区服务站和社区的主页心理服务机构为主,分别占25．5％和25．3％。调查还表明现实生活中残疾人心理健康服务的开展力度较弱。     

古代军事中的人事禁忌

军事禁忌习见于中国古代兵家文献,其中人事禁忌尤重,是考察古代战略战术不可忽略的重要内容之一.古代军事人事禁忌以兵者乃凶器滥用将遭受天罚为心理根源,滋生于战乱深重的现实和阴阳五行思想影响的双重土壤.军事人事禁忌主要包括畏战原则和慎杀行为两个方面的主要内容,是古代慎战思想的集中反映.军事人事禁忌沿袭三代天命观、人本主义、仁战思想、军礼孑遗等传统内核,随着时代发展日益陵替式微,但贯穿整个古代军事而不绝显隐.军事人事禁忌在一定程度上起到过约束战争发展和减少战争伤害的作用,合理性与愚昧性并存,应该回到具体历史场景中加以辩证分析和批判继承.