They Say Bad Things Come in Threes: How Economic,Political and Cultural Shifts Facilitated Contemporary Anti‐Immigration Activism in the United States

This paper, first, provides an analysis of contemporary anti‐immigration activism in the United States, situating it historically and theoretically through an examination of nativism and vigilantism. Second, it merges insights from political process theory and structured ignorance theory to develop an historical account of three key preconditions that set the stage for and accelerated contemporary anti‐immigration activism. In so doing this paper addresses fundamental empirical and theoretical gaps in political process theory and demonstrates how structured ignorance theory can help us better understand how shifting structural conditions promoted contemporary anti‐immigration mobilization by generating perceptions conducive to conservative activism.     

The Effects of a Delay of Noncontingent Reinforcement during a Pairing Procedure in the Development of Stimulus Control of Automatically Reinforced Vocalizations

Children with autism and related disabilities frequently fail to develop echoic repertoires. Among the ways in which treatment approaches vary is the extent to which automatic reinforcement is utilized. The present experiment was designed to test the efficacy of a procedure that incorporates automatic reinforcement and socially mediated reinforcement in the development of an echoic repertoire. The implementation of this treatment package resulted in an increase in the vocal play and echoic behavior for two participants, each of whom had very limited verbal repertoires. The study was conducted as a multiple probe across sounds design. Vocal play for Participant 1 increased from baseline rates as low as .2 per min to 4.5 per min during treatment, and her percent correct echoic behavior increased from 0% to at least 90% on both sounds. Participant 2 showed rapid gains in echoic control on one sound before requiring dismissal from the study. Interobserver agreement on the occurrence of target vocals equaled 100%. The results of this study have implications for which procedures to use in the establishment of echoic, echoic mand, and mand repertoires.     

Positive youth development within a family leisure context: youth perspectives of family outcomes

Although a variety of recreation programs provide valuable settings for youth development and should continue, the home should be considered the first and perhaps the most essential context for positive youth development. Family leisure experiences are purposively or intentionally planned by invested adults (parents) to create and maintain meaningful relationships and provide supportive opportunities for their children to learn skills and develop behaviors that will not only strengthen current family life but ultimately contribute to their overall positive development. The article presents family leisure research from a youth perspective and sets out the implications of the role of home-based core types of leisure that families engage in.     

Personal probabilities of probabilities

By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.     

Planning for an adaptive design: a case study in COPD

We discuss the practical and clinical considerations encountered when planning a Phase IIa trial in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Various adaptive strategies for reducing the cost of the trial and the statistical implications of these are explored. Use of the EAST software to evaluate the properties of the study designs with one or more interim analyses for futility, efficacy or either is described. We emphasize the rationale for choosing between alternative designs and the relationship between the clinical and statistical considerations.