Risk Analysis,Decision Analysis,Causal Analysis,and Economics: A Personal Perspective from More Than 40 years Experience

I entered the field of risk analysis forty years ago from a background in physics followed by doctoral training and experience in decision analysis. I came into the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) after participating as a committee member in the 1983 National Academies report, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. The insights and recommendations from this report, and successor reports from 1996 and 2008, merit revisiting on this 40th anniversary. Risk analysis includes risk assessment, a process of summarizing applicable science to inform decisions; and risk management, a process of making informed choices, usually involving multiple stakeholders. Inherent in both is the need to deal with complexity, uncertainty, and differing perspectives and goals. The lessons I have learned include the need for a conceptual separation of risk management from risk assessment, the benefit of an iterative dialogue between these activities, and the wisdom of articulating and assessing what we know, what we want, and what we can do as we seek to understand and manage risks affecting ourselves and those we advise.     

Disentangling the Roles of Modernization and Secularization on Fertility: The Case of Turkey

Population Research and Policy Review - Second demographic transition (SDT) theory argues very low fertility results from the simultaneous processes of modernization and secularization. However,...     

Getting There is Only Half the Battle: Stigma Consciousness and Maintaining Diversity in Higher Education

Increases in stigma consciousness since arriving at a primarily White college could predict the college performance and self-esteem of the academically stigmatized. After reviewing relevant research, the authors report on a study in which 44 stigmatized (African Americans and Latinos/Latinas) and 79 nonstigmatized (Whites and Asian Americans) students completed measures of stigma consciousness, GPA, disengagement from academics, and self-esteem. Among stigmatized males, increases in stigma consciousness predicted lower GPAs and greater disengagement. Although stigmatized females had low GPAs regardless of their increases in stigma consciousness, with increases in stigma consciousness came less disengagement from school and lower self-esteem. The discussion offers suggestions for how to minimize these negative effects of heightened stigma consciousness levels.     

Creativity and the Self: A Self Psychological Approach to Art and Healing

This paper explores the contributions of Heinz Kohut and self psychology to the conceptualization of art and healing on an individual and cultural level. The roles of normative narcissistic development, selfobject experience, and empathy are emphasized in the formation and maintenance of creative expression. Crayton Rowe’s addition of the undifferentiated selfobject is also explored. The lives and work of legendary artists, as well as a case example from the ongoing clinical treatment of a creative professional, provide illustration.     

NGOS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN BULGARIA AND THE USA

This study examines the development of civil society and its ability to facilitate stronger democratic practices in Bulgaria using the USA as a comparison. Using data gathered from surveys of NGOs in 2006, we examine three sets of questions. First, what is the level of NGO organizational capacity? Second, to what degree are NGOs performing their mediating roles? Third, how do NGOs perceive their effectiveness in working with the state and its citizens. Our findings suggest that Bulgarian NGOs face a number of challenges when compared with US NGOs, which affect their ability to engage in civil society activities such as establishing horizontal ties with citizens and other groups.     

The credit channel of monetary policy transmission: evidence from stock returns

This paper offers a novel test of the credit view of the monetary policy transmission mechanism using stock market returns. We identify Fed policy shocks using newspaper accounts and track daily stock prices immediately following the shocks. If the credit channel is important, then firms that are dependent on bank credit and internal funds should receive a relatively greater benefit (loss) from a Fed easing (tightening) than firms with access to nonbank credit at favorable terms. We identify ten policy shocks during the expansion of 1993-94 and the 'credit crunch' period of the 1990-91 recession and find little evidence supportive of an operative credit channel.     

Early-life origins of the race gap in men's mortality

Using a life course framework, we examine the early life origins of the race gap in men's all-cause mortality. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men (1966-1990), we evaluate major social pathways by which early life conditions differentiate the mortality experiences of blacks and whites. Our findings indicate that early life socioeconomic conditions, particularly parental occupation and family structure, explain part of the race gap in mortality. Black men's higher rates of death are associated with lower socioeconomic standing in early life and living in homes lacking both biological parents. However these effects operate indirectly through adult socioeconomic achievement processes, as education, family income, wealth, and occupational complexity statistically account for the race gap in men's mortality. Our findings suggest that policy interventions to eliminate race disparities in mortality and health should address both childhood and adult socioeconomic conditions.     

Coordinated approaches to large-scale movements of people: contributions of the Paris Agreement and the Global Compacts for migration and on refugees

It is not yet clear how climate change will affect the structural constraints and spatial and social complexity that affect population movements in the future. Today, countries of origin, transit, and destination have reached a juncture. The UNFCCC Paris Agreement adds value to decisions these countries face by helping them explore possible scenarios for impacts that include large movements of people that could be associated with a rise in global average temperatures between 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climate policy and mainstream migration and refugee policy are developing recommendations by the end of 2018 that, together, will provide new contours for governing human mobility in the twenty-first century. This paper compares work on human mobility under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how climate change features in the initial drafts of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). The international community can choose not to include such future considerations, missing opportunities to avert risks of involuntary movements of people as climate change impacts intensify. Alternatively, the international community can help countries to preempt risks arising from governance gaps and climate impacts, incorporate climate and mobility considerations in planning, and establish contingency arrangements for large-scale movements of people. A measure of efficacy in coordinating responses to large-scale movements of people will be the degree to which both state and non-state actors take up the recommendations of the Task Force on Displacement, how the Global Compact for Migration is negotiated, and the degree to which states utilize the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework as climate and other dynamics unfold in future years.