How Many Times Has the Human Population Doubled? Comparisons with Cancer

Along with decreasing doubling times as a function of increasing rates of population growth over the past several thousand years, the human species has shown striking parallels with a malignant growth. Some cancers also display decreasing doubling times of cell proliferation during the most rapidly growing phase. At 6 billion, the number of doublings reached by the human population as of 1998 is 32.5, with the 33rd doubling (8.59 billion) expected early in the next century. In terms of total animal biomass, including that of domestic animals under human control, the 33rd doubling of human-related biomass has been passed. In terms of energy use, which is a more accurate, index of the global ecological impact of humans, the human species has passed its 36th doubling. These calculations are important because, in addition to the number of doublings, the human population is showing several important similarities with a malignant organismic tumor, which results in death of the host organism at between 37 and 40 doublings. At current growth rates, the number of individual humans will reach those levels within 200–400 years from the present, but the ecological impact will be felt much sooner since the number of doublings of energy consumed will pass 37 early in the next century. These observations support the hypothesis that the human species has become a malignant process on the planet that is likely to result in the equivalent, for humans, of ecosystem death, or at least in a radical transformation of the ecosystem, the early phases of which are being observed.     

Smoking initiation and smoking patterns among US college students.

The ages at which 18- to 24-year-old college students started smoking and its relationship to subsequent smoking were explored, using data from the 1995 National College Health Risk Behavior Survey. Most students (70%) had tried smoking; among those who had tried, 42% were current smokers, 19% were current frequent smokers, and 13% were current daily smokers. The majority (81%) who had ever smoked daily began doing so at age 18 years or younger, and 19% began smoking daily at age 19 years or older. Women were as likely as men to report ever having smoked a whole cigarette or ever having smoked daily. Most students (82%) who had ever smoked daily had tried to quit, but 3 in 4 were still smokers. Policies and programs designed to prevent the initiation of smoking and to help smokers quit are needed at both the high school and the college levels to reduce the proportion of young adults who smoke cigarettes.     

Business Ethics and Business History: Neglected Dimensions in Management Education

This article highlights two large gaps in the business school curriculum: the neglect of historical and ethical dimensions. An overview is provided of progress made so far in the UK in the evolution of business history as an academic discipline; and also of the take–up of business ethics in university teaching. Both have had some success, but overall the response to these areas has been somewhat lacklustre — at least in the UK. A justification is provided for adding both components to a fully relevant business education. When the two are combined, the result can be a highly rewarding combination that provides insights that may not be possible for management writers, who work only in the present. Corporate ethics, the social responsibility of companies, disclosure, the environment, the actions of multinational companies overseas, the dilemmas of whistle–blowing, the impact of lobby groups and health and safety issues can all be understood more fully by students if they approach these subjects from an ethical and historical standpoint.     

Estimates of long-term immigration to the United States: Moving US statistics toward United Nations concepts

US immigration data are revised to reflect the UN demographic concept of long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is measured by the number of new immigrants (permanent resident aliens) arriving in the year, temporary migrant arrivals (nonimmigrants) who subsequently adjust to permanent resident status, arrivals of asylees and refugees, and nonimmigrants who arrive during the year and stay for more than twelve months before departing. The estimates of long-term immigration for 1983 are compared to official INS statistics on alien immigration. Significant differences emerge according to country of origin, age, and state of intended residence. A method of producing current estimates of long-term immigration is illustrated.     

Young Carers: Conventional or Exaggerated Levels of Involvement in Domestic and Caring Tasks?

Historically, research about young carers has focused on defining the tasks and responsibilities undertaken by children caring for ill or disabled family members and the impacts of such care, without reference to the domestic and caring work undertaken by children and young people in families where there are only non‐disabled or well members. This study presents new evidence of what children and young people generally do to assist in the home and examines how the lives of young carers differ from children and young people who are not carers. It concludes by examining the implications of these research findings for evidence‐informed policy and practice. Copyright © 2006 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2006 National Children's Bureau.     

CLINICAL PROCESS RECORDING IN FOCAL FAMILY THERAPY*

A method for systematically recording the process of family therapy (the Focal Therapy Record Sheet) is described, based on the focal approach developed in earlier papers by the authors. It demands a conceptual distinction between assessment of families and treatment techniques and embodies continuous evaluation of family improvement according to specific criteria. A detailed case illustration showing the Sheets completed for each of 14 sessions after two diagnostic interviews is provided, together with an anecdotal-style account. The value of the instrument for teaching purposes, in routine clinical work and for research is discussed.     

Explorations in Neighborhood Differentiation*

The cyclical interest in local units of the urban community has failed to provide cumulative knowledge about the varieties, functions and ethnic distribution of types of neighborhoods. Research in Detroit, involving 16 black and 12 white neighborhoods, provides sufficient quantitative data to formulate multivariate distinctions of neighborhood type and function. Among the most important findings was the extent to which residents of given types of neighborhoods used informal and formal services. The total utilization of neighbor and formal agency services was also tied to neighborhood type. The present research suggests a more comprehensive typology for describing the character of local neighborhoods and for devising strategies of intervention where the prime unit is a local neighborhood.     

Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.