Optimal loan periods for undergraduate recommended reading

A model is developed for the total expected utility to borrowers of an undergraduate text book recommended by a lecturer. It takes account of the peaked demand for a book following a recommendation, measures of borrower satisfaction which involve both waiting time and reading time (loan period), and the persistence of would-be borrowers in requesting books not found on the shelves. Some parameters of the model were estimated by a method which elicited preferences of students in various choice situations; other parameters were estimated by librarians. Some specific conclusions are drawn regarding the optimal loan period of books in terms of their type and the number of copies held.     

The definition and measurement of similarity among legislative roll-call votes

This paper attempts to further the investigation of the close relationship between the seemingly diverse statistical techniques of Guttman scaling and principal components (factor) analysis by showing that artificial data sets composed of various kinds and combinations of cumulative scales can be analyzed in a meaningful and related way by principal components analysis. The comparison is then moved to a more abstract level through the postulation of a definition of “similarity” or association between roll-calls which is used as a standard for evaluating the two techniques. The outcome is that principal components analysis is interpreted as a refinement over Guttman scaling in the assessment of roll-call similarity, although where this extra precision is not required, Guttman scaling remains an acceptable methodology. By raising the question of the relation of technique to data to this level, it is hoped that the bases for more theoretically oriented choices of technique have been established.     

Identity Satisfaction Over the Life Course in Sexual Minorities

A variety of models have been proposed to understand the process of coming to terms with a sexual minority identity. What has not been so clearly explored is how an individual's satisfaction with his or her sexual identity develops over the life course. This article explores satisfaction with sexual identity in a large cohort (N = 2,269) of self-identified lesbians, gay men, and bisexuals, and considers satisfaction not only from a chronos (life span) but also from a chairos (stage of development) framework. Data show a clear relationship between age group and increased satisfaction with a sexual minority identity. Resilience may be an important contributor to increased satisfaction.     

General Deterrence of Drunk Driving: Evaluation of Recent American Policies

A testable hypothesis of deterrence theory is that efforts to increase the expected cost of criminal activity by increasing the threat of punishment should, other things being equal, reduce the crime rate. In this paper, we examine whether the incidence of drinking and driving is responsive to escalation of the punitive threat. The recent national campaign against drunk driving provides a natural experiment in which to test the predictions of deterrence theory. Using state level data over the 1975-1986 period, we report no conclusive evidence that any specific form of punitive legislation is having a measurable effect on motor vehicle fatalities. We report suggestive evidence that multiple laws designed to increase the certainty of punishment (e.g., sobriety checkpoints and preliminary breath tests) have a synergistic deterrent effect. The most striking finding is that mandatory seat belt use laws and beer taxes may be more effective at reducing drunk driving fatalities than policies aimed at general deterrence.     

Screening opportunity bias in case-control studies of cancer screening

In case-control evaluations of cancer screening, subjects who have died from the cancer in question (cases) are compared with those who have not (controls) with respect to screening histories. This method is subject to a rather subtle bias, among others, whereby the cases have greater opportunity to have been screened than the controls. In this paper, we propose a method of correction for this bias. We demonstrate its use on two case-control studies of mammographic screening for breast cancer.     

Strategic planning for British nuclear fuels Ltd.

This article presents an account of the current state of planning in a Government - owned company. The author describes differences he sees between the planning process in his enterprise and those which are outlined in many planning texts.Since the company is relatively new, the author makes no claims for the success of the total planning operation as he describes it. However, he does indicate areas where advances have been made.Among these are proving the validity of the chosen planning system; the derivation of objectives from the planning process rather than as a starting point, and the acceptance of the planning operation by Top Management.