Belief functions and statistical inference

The Dempster Shafer theory of belief functions is a method of quantifying uncertainty that generalizes probability theory. We review the theory of belief functions in the context of statistical inference. We mainly focus on a particular belief function based on the likelihood function and its application to problems with partial prior information. We also consider connections to upper and lower probabilities and Bayesian robustness.     

Matching Performance of Continuous Sampling Plans with Single Sampling Plans

Single sampling plans are widely used for appraising incoming product quality. However, for situations where a continuous product flow exists, lot-by-lot demarcations may not exist, and it may be necessary to use alternate procedures, such as CSP-1, for continuous processes. In this case, one would like to be able to understand how average performance of the continuous sampling procedures compares to the more commonly used single sampling plans.

In this study, a model is devised which can be used to relate plan performance between single sample lot acceptance procedures and Dodge's(1943) CSP-1 continuous sampling plan. It is shown that it is generally not possible to match up performance based upon operating characteristic curve expressions for the two plans. Instead, the plans are matched by equating expressions for π(p), the long run proportion of product which is accepted, under both procedures. This is shown to be equivalent to matching up properties on an average outgoing quality basis. The methodology may be extended for any derivative plan under MIL-STD-1235B (1982), the military standard for continuous acceptance sampling.     

Teaching Regressions an Exploratory Approach

An applied statistics and data-analysis course designed for students of public management and policy analysis, but suitable as an introductory graduate-level applied course in other contexts, is discussed. The course, Quantitative Methods for Public Management (QMPM), is a departure from traditional instruction in statistics. It uses subject-matter hierarchies to schedule the presentation of substantive material, and it integrates exploratory data analysis (EDA) and standard classical techniques. This integration is accomplished by using exploratory methods to clarify and evaluate analyses performed with classical procedures. The course, taught since 1975 at Carnegie-Mellon University's School of Urban and Public Affairs, has been evaluated experimentally through a randomized assignment of students to either a traditional introductory statistics course or QMPM. We concentrate here on the QMPM approach to teaching regression.     

Some generalizations of p1: External constraints,interactions and non-binary relations

In 1977, Holland and Leinhardt introduced a new statistical approach to sociometric data analysis. The details of their approach, based on a model termed P₁, were published in 1981 in papers by Holland and Leinhardt, and Fienberg and Wasserman. Since then, many researchers have adopted this model, addressing substantive questions that were unanswerable with existing methodology. The continuing methodological research of Fienberg and Wasserman has allowed this approach to be applied to many different types of sociometric data. We carry on this research by extending p₁ to three new situations: networks of such size that it is impossible for every actor to have contact or knowledge of the other actors; networks in which actor interaction can not be adequately modeled by the simple additive main effects of expansiveness and popularity; and networks in which we measure the strength of the relationship between actors using a non-binary or multivalued relational quantity.     

Longitudinal analysis of friendship networks

This note discusses and demonstrates methods, both exploratory and confirmatory, for analysing data from friendship networks collected over time. The focus is on stochastic models for dyadic interaction designed to quantify the structural effect of reciprocity on arc changes. The networks studied were previously analysed by Hallinan (Social Networks 1: 193–210) who was concerned with stability of dyadic choices and the direction of change of asymmetric dyads to either mutual or null dyads. These aspects of the networks are really of secondary importance to the effect of reciprocated choices on the probabilities of dyadic change. Measures of this ‘reciprocity effect’ are presented, and comments on the rationale for continuous-time Markov chains as models for networks are given.     

Objective and subjective social indicators of the quality of life in American SMSA'S: A reanalysis

The paper examines and critiques Schneider's work that related the subjective and objective indicators of quality of life in American cities. The work then employs data collected by Liu in 1973, and the Institute for Survey Research in 1972 as part of their national election study for 41 large and medium-sized Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) to re-examine the question of the relationship between the objective and subjective factors. Although the results of this paper are in general comparable with those obtained by Schneider, there are individual cases where they differ. The paper then concludes with a discussion of the reasons why objective and subjective indicators may coincide.     

Censoring,conditionally, and likelihood

The censoring principle is shown to imply a principle similar to the likelihood principle. Further, it is demonstrated that the censoring principle and a weak form of the conditionality principle jointly imply the likelihood principle.     

Juggling resistance and compliance: The case of Israeli ultra-orthodox media

In an attempt to examine how resistant discourses are constructed in a highly conservative society, this article presents four discursive forms of resistance used by an Israeli ultra-orthodox Jewish magazine juggling between compliance and resistance in its attempt to subvert hegemonic rabbinical authority. These resistance forms are: cushioning, discursive hybrids, explicit provocation and trivializing. Based on a qualitative content analysis of 229 articles published in the weekly magazine Mishpacha (Family), the study seeks to contribute to the existing literature on resistance in and around organizations by exposing the complex and heterogeneous nature of discursive resistance in authoritarian-religious environments. Furthermore, the paper offers a glimpse into the ways that a social group within a religious society resists authority though without shattering its ideological basis.     

Firm outsourcing decisions: evidence from U.S. foreign trade zones

This article examines the operations of firms located in U.S. foreign trade subzones to study the responsiveness of outsourcing to international cost changes. I find that firms reduce their reliance on foreign inputs when dollar depreciation increases the relative price of imported inputs. The effect is pervasive across industries and is economically significant. In addition, firms that rely more heavily on imported intermediate inputs reduce their overall shipments when dollar depreciation elevates their imported, input costs. However, the magnitude of the shipments effect is economically small, suggesting that firms respond to exchange rate movements by adjusting their operations on other dimensions.     

A program to calculate bootstrap confidence intervals for the process capability index Cpk

Franklin and Wasserman (1991) introduced the use of Bootstrap sampling procedures for deriving nonparametric confidence intervals for the process capability index, C_pk, which are applicable for instances when at least twenty data points are available. This represents a significant reduction in the usually recommended sample requirement of 100 observations (see Gunther 1989). To facilitate and encourage the use of these procedures. a FORTRAN program is provided for computation of confidence intervals for C_pk. Three methods are provided for this calculation including the standard method, the percentile confidence interval, and the biased - corrected percentile confidence interval.