Characterizing variation of nonparametric random probability measures using the Kullback–Leibler divergence

This work characterizes the dispersion of some popular random probability measures, including the bootstrap, the Bayesian bootstrap, and the Pólya tree prior. This dispersion is measured in terms of the variation of the Kullback–Leibler divergence of a random draw from the process to that of its baseline centring measure. By providing a quantitative expression of this dispersion around the baseline distribution, our work provides insight for comparing different parameterizations of the models and for the setting of prior parameters in applied Bayesian settings. This highlights some limitations of the existing canonical choice of parameter settings in the Pólya tree process.     

The Prevalence and Course of Pathological Gambling in the Mood Disorders

The objective of the current investigation was to examine the prevalence of pathological gambling (PG) in a psychiatric sample with a history of mood disorder, and the concurrent and longitudinal association of PG and mood disorder symptoms according to retrospective report. A total of 275 (100 male, 175 female) psychiatric outpatients in Ontario, Canada, with a lifetime diagnosis of a depressive (n = 138) or bipolar disorder (n = 137), completed the Canadian Problem Gambling Index, South Oaks Gambling Screen and Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation. Correlational and cross-lagged panel analyses evaluated the relation between PG and mood disorder symptom course. The prevalence of PG was elevated within patients with a mood disorder; there was no difference across diagnosis. Concurrent PG and mood disorder symptoms were positively correlated; however, longitudinal analyses revealed no evidence for an association between PG and mood disorder symptoms when symptom stability was taken into account. Despite the elevated prevalence of PG within mood disorders, and the concurrent association between PG and mood disorder symptoms, no direct association was found between these types of pathology. Prospective designs and intervening variables are required to advance understanding of the etiological associations between these disorders.     

Interpretive Asymmetry,Retrospective Inquiry and the Explication of Action in an Incident of Friendly Fire

In this article, we examine a controversial friendly fire incident that took place during the early stages of the Iraq war. Our focus is on how a cockpit video of the incident was used post facto in a military inquiry to arrive at an understanding of the actions of the pilots involved. We shall concentrate specifically on a series of interpretive difficulties that highlighted the problematic status of the video as evidence and explore what their resolution might tell us about military practice, and the place of friendly fire within it more broadly.     

Does Listening to Mozart Affect Listening Ability?

Considerable research has been conducted testing Rauscher, Shaw, and Ky's (1993) Rauscher, F. H., Shaw, G. L and Ky, K. N. 1993. Music and spatial task performance. Nature, 365: 611[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] Mozart Effect (ME). This study attempts to replicate, in part, research that tested the ME on listening comprehension abilities. Also included in this study is an examination of control group issues in current day research. We hypothesized that students who listen to Mozart would demonstrate greater listening comprehension than students involved in one of four control groups. Students were exposed to one of five treatments and then completed a listening comprehension test about a videotaped lecture they viewed. Ultimately, results uncovered a ME when comparing the Mozart A (alpha) group with the alternative treatment control groups (Mozart B [beta] music and Rock and Roll music), but no ME when comparing the Mozart A group and the non-music control groups (sitting in silence or working on a crossword puzzle). Discussion focused on the ME and listening comprehension as well as on the nature of control groups in experimental research.     

Young African American Males: Barriers to Access to Health Care

African American males continue to experience an unacceptable and disproportionate number of health disparities when compared with other racial and ethnic groups. Young African American males can expect to live the least amount of time when compared to any other ethnic minority or racial sub-group. Understanding the obstacles and barriers that impede access to health care and wellness services among young African American males is essential to begin the process of decreasing health disparities. The goal of this qualitative study was to explore and identify the barriers experienced by young African American males in accessing health care services while also creating a rare opportunity to give voice to young African American males. The study results indicate that young African American males have multiple perceptions of barriers to health care services. Their perceptions fell into three categories: the negative impact of environment or community, lack of finances or no insurance, and distrust of medical practices associated with race history resulting in accessing healthcare as a last resort. Additional research is needed to craft community-based programs to: a) educate young African American males on the importance of preventative strategies to maintain wellness; and b) ensure that the appropriate medical and wellness services are available and reaching young African American males in need.     

Shaping the story: rhetoric,persuasion and creative writing in organisational ethnography

Every writer is engaged in processes of persuasion, not only in their communicating with the reader but in the very processes of thinking out their ideas. Rhetoric is inevitably an integral part of research work and research writing. All social science writing involves the creation of an artful product. This proposition is examined with reference to the author's own writing about his ethnographic research on management and key parallels are observed between the techniques of creating an ethnographic account and the rhetorical style of the creative fiction writer. The basic issues of the paper are raised in the story of a dialogue between the researcher and Tom Beeston.     

Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Linear Regression with Covariates Constrained in Intervals

Abstract. The focus of this article is on simultaneous confidence bands over a rectangular covariate region for a linear regression model with k>1 covariates, for which only conservative or approximate confidence bands are available in the statistical literature stretching back to Working & Hotelling (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 24 , 1929; 73–85). Formulas of simultaneous confidence levels of the hyperbolic and constant width bands are provided. These involve only a k‐dimensional integral; it is unlikely that the simultaneous confidence levels can be expressed as an integral of less than k‐dimension. These formulas allow the construction for the first time of exact hyperbolic and constant width confidence bands for at least a small k(>1) by using numerical quadrature. Comparison between the hyperbolic and constant width bands is then addressed under both the average width and minimum volume confidence set criteria. It is observed that the constant width band can be drastically less efficient than the hyperbolic band when k>1. Finally it is pointed out how the methods given in this article can be applied to more general regression models such as fixed‐effect or random‐effect generalized linear regression models.     

Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning

To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating on the forecasting approach around which the process revolves. Our analysis focuses on the forecasting process and how it mediates and accommodates the functional biases that can impair the forecast accuracy. We categorize the sources of functional bias into intentional, driven by misalignment of incentives and the disposition of power within the organization, and unintentional, resulting from informational and procedural blind spots. We show that the forecasting process, together with the supporting mechanisms of information exchange and elicitation of assumptions, is capable of managing the potential political conflict and the informational and procedural shortcomings. We also show that the creation of an independent group responsible for managing the forecasting process, an approach that we distinguish from generating forecasts directly, can stabilize the political dimension sufficiently to enable process improvement to be steered. Finally, we find that while a coordination system—the relevant processes, roles and responsibilities, and structure—can be designed to address existing individual and functional biases in the organization, the new coordination system will in turn generate new individual and functional biases. The introduced framework of functional biases (whether those biases are intentional or not), the analysis of the political dimension of the forecasting process, and the idea of a coordination system are new constructs to better understand the interface between operations management and other functions.