On Stein's method, smoothing estimates in total variation distance and mixture distributions

In many settings it is useful to have bounds on the total variation distance between some random variable Z and its shifted version Z+1. For example, such quantities are often needed when applying Stein's method for probability approximation. This note considers one way in which such bounds can be derived, in cases where Z is either the equilibrium distribution of some birth-death process or the mixture of such a distribution. Applications of these bounds are given to translated Poisson and compound Poisson approximations for Poisson mixtures and the Pólya distribution.     

COVID-19 and care homes in England: What happened and why?

In the context of very high mortality and infection rates, this article examines the policy response to COVID-19 in care homes for older people in the UK, with particular focus on England in the first 10 weeks of the pandemic. The timing and content of the policy response as well as different possible explanations for what happened are considered. Undertaking a forensic analysis of policy in regard to the overall plan, monitoring and protection as well as funding and resources, the first part lays bare the slow, late and inadequate response to the risk and reality of COVID-19 in care homes as against that in the National Health Service (NHS). A two-pronged, multidimensional explanation is offered: structural, sectoral specificities; political and socio-cultural factors. Amongst the relevant structural factors are the institutionalised separation from the health system, the complex system of provision and policy for adult social care, widespread market dependence. There is also the fact that logistical difficulties were exacerbated by years of austerity and resource cutting and a weak regulatory tradition of the care home sector. The effects of a series of political and cultural factors are also highlighted. As well as little mobilisation of the sector and low public commitment to and knowledge of social care, there is a pattern of Conservative government trying to divest the state of responsibilities in social care. This would support an interpretation in terms of policy avoidance as well as a possible political calculation by government that its policies towards the care sector and care homes would be less important and politically damaging than those for the NHS.     

Evaluations of Antigay Hate Crimes and Hate Crime Legislation: Independent and Differentially Predicted

Minimal studies have investigated individuals’ evaluations of antigay hate crimes and hate crime legislation simultaneously, with most research focusing on one or the other. In a sample of 246 heterosexual undergraduates, the present study found that evaluations of antigay hate crimes and hate crime legislation were unrelated. Higher social dominance orientation (SDO) and crime control orientation scores were associated with more positive evaluations of antigay hate crimes. Positive evaluations of hate crime legislation were associated with more positive attitudes toward gay men and lesbians. We also found that the relationship between SDO and evaluations were mediated by crime control beliefs (for hate crimes evaluations) and antigay attitudes (for hate crime legislation evaluations). The present findings have possible implications for the manner in which organizations advocate for the extension of hate crime legislation to include sexual orientation.     

Back Pay for Trafficked Migrant Workers: An Indonesian Case Study

In 2015 the International Organization for Migration (IOM) identified almost 1,200 trafficked migrants working in slave‐like conditions on fishing boats in East Indonesia. The IOM helped the migrants and offered to cover the cost of repatriation to their countries of citizenship. The Indonesian government appreciated the financial support, not least because the victims’ embassies refused to pay. But most victims in one location refused to return to their home country without the wages owed to them by their trafficker‐cum‐employers. IOM policy states that migrants are eligible to use the Assisted Voluntary Return and Reintegration (AVRR) service if they are unable or unwilling to remain in the host country. But another condition is that migrants must use the services voluntarily. The IOM could not force the migrants to leave the country, and national law prevented the Indonesian government from deporting the migrants because the IOM had identified them as victims of trafficking. 1     

Measuring Community Economic Resilience in Australia: Estimates of Recent Levels and Trends

We measure changes in community economic resilience (CER) across geo-locations in Australia between 2006 and 2011, a time span characterised by major natural and economic shocks. We build an index of potential CER that captures communities’ stocks of human, social, natural, physical and financial capitals, levels of economic diversity and accessibility to service centres. Using Census data and the ARIA index, we resort to principal component analysis to generate CER indexes at statistical area level 1, which is our community proxy. Our analysis of index values provides a number of useful insights. First, there was a statistically significant improvement over time in the overall CER index in all states and regions. Second, our CER measures improved at a different pace across regions and states while their rank remained mostly unchanged. Third, CER improved over time in social and physical capital and accessibility terms, but declined in human, natural, financial capital and diversity terms. Fourth, communities with a high economic diversity level reported higher capital stock except for natural capital, and communities with a low accessibility level had lower capital stock except for social and natural capital. Finally, CER has a long-term positive association with household income.     

Two Stochastic Multidimensional Choice Models for Marketing Research

Two recently developed probabilistic multidimensional models for analyzing pairwise choice data are introduced, discussed in terms of their differential properties, and extended in several ways. The first one, the wandering vector model, was originally suggested by Carroll [12] and extended by De Soete and Carroll [30]. The second model, called the wandering ideal point model, is a more recently proposed [32] unfolding analog of the wandering vector model. A general maximum likelihood estimation method for fitting the various models described is mentioned, as well as a statistical test for assessing the goodness of fit. Finally, an application of the models is provided concerning consumer choice for some 14 brands of over-the-counter analgesics to illustrate how such models can be gainfully utilized for marketing decision making concerning product positioning.     

On the Creation of Acceptable Conjoint Analysis Experimental Designs

Conjoint analysis studies typically utilize orthogonal fractional factorial experimental designs to construct a set of hypothetical stimuli. Occasionally, these designs include environmentally correlated attributes that can lead to stimulus profiles that are not representative of the subject's environment. To date, no one has proposed a remedy well-grounded in statistical theory. This note presents a new methodology utilizing combinatorial optimization procedures for creating modified fractional factorial designs that are as “orthogonal” as possible, which do not contain nonrepresentative stimulus profiles.     

On the Measurement of Perceived Consumer Risk

The role of perceived risk in consumer behavior has been studied extensively by academic researchers. This paper introduces a methodology for the measurement of the effects of product features, marketing mix components, and individual differences on perceived consumer risk based on theoretical foundations in the literature. A conjoint-type model based on paired comparison judgments is estimated to provide attribute weights. A modification of a stochastic multidimensional scaling-based vector model is then used to measure and summarize individual consumer differences with respect to the impact of brand attributes and marketing mix components on latent levels of perceived consumer risk. An illustration is provided using students’ risk perceptions of sports cars.     

Intimate Partner Communication From the War Zone: A Prospective Study of Relationship Functioning,Communication Frequency,and Combat Effectiveness

This study examined (a) the association between relationship functioning prior to and during deployment, and the frequency of communication during deployment; and (b) the association between relationship functioning and depression during deployment and their influence on service members’ ratings of duty performance. Participants were 144 partnered Airmen assessed immediately before and during a one‐year high‐risk deployment to Iraq. Results showed an overall high frequency of partner communication during deployment. High relationship distress at predeployment predicted lower frequency of communication during deployment. Changes in relationship distress from before deployment to during deployment independently predicted frequency of communication, above and beyond predeployment distress levels. Level of relationship distress and depression during deployment independently predicted service members’ ratings of impact on duty performance.     

Thinking About Internal Prejudice And Anti-Oppressive Practice In Child Safeguarding Social Work With Irish Travellers In The UK

This paper is a reflective exploration of the emotional encounter between social workers and Irish Travellers in child safeguarding cases in the UK, the unconscious defences that may be triggered for social workers, unfamiliar with Travellers, and how these can impact on the relationship and outcomes. It raises concern about how pervasive societal disapproval towards Travellers may be absorbed by social workers, at the expense of a curiosity about historic marginalisation, the contemporary cultural and social context and a recognition of the strengths of the community. Drawing on psychoanalytical insights into ‘race’, it comprises a literature review which highlights themes of marginalisation in research on Irish Travellers in the UK. It also includes a narrative interview with a Traveller woman who reflects on the fear that social workers invoke in Travellers, and sets up the key question: what might the emotional state of the social worker be in this scenario.