Reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures

We develop a new class of reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures. A general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is also proposed for implementing the computation. We present several examples to demonstrate the results: Bayesian penalized spline smoothing, a Bayesian approach to bivariate smoothing for a spatial model, and prior specification for structural equation models.     

Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France

Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, and union dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’Histoire Familiale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed family size. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during the childbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population in which all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parity progressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with and those without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are much smaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation and dissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearing after union formation.     

三螺旋模式与知识经济

大学、产业与政府三者之间关系构成了一个三螺旋模型,可将此关系网络的新体制模型推广为三种选择环境如何相互作用的新进化模型。两种相互作用的选择机制能形成一个轨道,而三个选择环境则有望生成一种管理制度。通过新进化模型既可理解大学、产业与政府三者间关系的机构整合,又可理解财富创造、知识生产和立法等功能的不同。对于国家、部门和区域创新系统的说明便可以确切地阐述为一个实证问题：协同是否由关系网络的不同功能而产生？由此,该三螺旋模型使我们能在全球层次上,根据局部稳定（和潜在锁定）轨道之间的权衡,对比技术经济制度,研究某种经济的知识基础。     

Theoretical properties of tests for spatial clustering of count data

Testing for spatial clustering of count data is an important problem in spatial data analysis. Several procedures have been proposed to this end but despite their extensive use, studies of their fundamental theoretical properties are almost non‐existent. The authors suggest two conditions that any reasonable test for spatial clustering should satisfy. The latter are based on the notion that the null hypothesis should be rejected almost surely as the amount of spatial clustering tends to infinity. The authors show that the chisquared test and the Potthoff—Whittinghill V have both properties but that other classical tests do not.     

Recent trends in marital disruption

The post-1980 decline in the crude divorce rate must be interpreted in the context of the long-term trend and in terms of what we know about composition effects on crude measures-particularly given shifts in age at marriage and the age composition effects of the baby boom. Data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey permit more detailed, exposure-specific measurements as well as the use of separation as the event terminating marriage. Estimates from these data suggest a decline followed by a recovery. Taking into account well-known levels of underreporting, we find that recent rates imply that about two-thirds of all first marriages are likely to end in separation or divorce. We examine the persistence of major differences in marital stability and evaluate the comparative stability of first and second marriages.