Philosophical speculations on systems design

Belief in the value of the scientific method as a means of implementing improvement in social systems (here called “systems design”—SD) raises important philosophical questions concerning, inter alia, the meaning of “scientific method”, of “improvement”, and of social reality. One underlying problem is that of the “self reflecting paradox”; e.g. the content and validity of the scientific method can only be discovered by the application of the scientific method. Similarly, SD has its own “social reality” through which it perceives that of its client. “Improvement” is bound up with ethics but ethics does not admit the limitation of obligation to one sub-system, therefore improvement requires the recognition of sub-system linkages. Paradoxically, again, the “improver” is himself part of the total system and bears its impress. Implementation (of improvement) meets the paradox that SD on SD is needed to judge the worth of the SD proposal. The pragmatic escape from the paradox identifies SD with a heuristic role in social progress but presupposes the possibility of progress. “Implementation” secures the possibility of such progress. The second major problem is that SD requires a social reality in which individuals have visible goals; but the “inner world” of individual goals is unknown and cannot be tracked from observable responses. In any case, Kant's moral precept requires that individuals be valued as ends rather than means. Much of SD uses them as means. Though SD is and must be practised, such philosophical speculation raises SD's self knowledge and points the neat paradox of its technical precision won at the price of its fundamental woolliness.     

Family Size and College Aspirations: A Note on Catholic-Protestant Differences

Data from a study of college aspirations among 40,000 Minnesota adolescents indicate that the relationship of family size to aspirations is somewhat higher among Protestants than Catholics. Overall aspirational differences between religious groups are minor. Further analysis suggests that these differences are probably not a function of financial capacities but rather of more basic socialization practices. The data are used to illustrate an alternative approach in analyzing the relevance of religion to contemporary society: examining processual differences between religious groups rather than concentrating only on outcomes–such as net differences in aspirations. The paper concludes by speculating that social process may be critical in distinguishing Protestants from Catholics but has generally been neglected in contemporary research on religion.     

The Untold Story of Clare and Donald Winnicott: How Social Work Influenced Modern Psychoanalysis

While the work of Donald Winnicott is well-known to clinical social workers, most are unaware of his rich professional collaboration with his second wife, Clare, a pioneering social worker analyzed by Melanie Klein who worked in child welfare, academia, government service, and psychoanalysis. This paper will review their work and lives together, outlining how their relationship expanded Donald's horizons in exploring the interface between psyche and environment.     

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation of a Quantile Regression Model

We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression function that is identified by requiring a specified quantile of the regression “error” conditional on an instrumental variable to be zero. The resulting estimating equation is a nonlinear integral equation of the first kind, which generates an ill‐posed inverse problem. The integral operator and distribution of the instrumental variable are unknown and must be estimated nonparametrically. We show that the estimator is mean‐square consistent, derive its rate of convergence in probability, and give conditions under which this rate is optimal in a minimax sense. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the estimator behaves well in finite samples.     

The Case for Prefigurative Feminist Organizing

Contemporary feminist community organizing is not entirely consistent in practice. Drawing from current and historic examples, as well a feminist literature, this article examines tensions and contradictions between feminist ideas and praxis. The author suggests that contemporary feminist organizing ideas and practices adhere to masculinist models, and do not offer a liberatory and inclusive model for social change. Recommendations for a consistency between the public and private spheres, and processes and outcomes, are discussed.     

Sum of a Random Number of Correlated Random Variables that Depend on the Number of Summands

The mean and variance of a sum of a random number of random variables are well known when the number of summands is independent of each summand and when the summands are independent and identically distributed (iid), or when all summands are identical. In scientific and financial applications, the preceding conditions are often too restrictive. Here, we calculate the mean and variance of a sum of a random number of random summands when the mean and variance of each summand depend on the number of summands and when every pair of summands has the same correlation. This article shows that the variance increases with the correlation between summands and equals the variance in the iid or identical cases when the correlation is zero or one.     

Rural Environmental Concern: Effects of Position,Partisanship, and Place

The social bases of environmental concern in rural America resemble those for the nation as a whole, but also reflect the influence of place. Some general place characteristics, such as rates of population growth or resource‐industry employment, predict responses across a number of environmental issues. Other unique or distinctive aspects of local society and environment matter as well. We extend earlier work on both kinds of place effects, first by analyzing survey data from northeast Oregon. Results emphasize that “environmental concern” has several dimensions. Second, we contextualize the Oregon results using surveys from other regions. Analysis of an integrated dataset (up to 12,000 interviews in 38 U.S. counties) shows effects from respondent characteristics and political views, and from county rates of population growth and resource‐based employment. There also are significant place‐to‐place variations that are not explained by variables in the models. To understand some of these we return to the local scale. In northeast Oregon, residents describe how perceptions of fire danger from unmanaged forest lands shape their response to the word conservation. Their local interpretation contrasts with more general and urban connotations of this term, underlining the importance of place for understanding rural environmental concern.     

Public perceptions of the ideal number of children for contemporary families

Demographic and family dynamics have been influenced by the recent downturn in average family size. This research examines perceptions of the ideal size for contemporary families and beliefs regarding factors which have contributed to families' decisions to have fewer children. Findings reveal that the two child family is the overwhelming standard chosen by respondents, and that this preference holds for virtually all demographic categories. Three of five reasons offered for smaller families today (expense of children, wives working and better birth control) were viewed as important by over 85% of those sampled.A previous version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the Southern Demographic Group, Austin, Texas, October, 1985. Support for computer analyses was provided by the Office of Computer and Information Services, University of Maryland Baltimore County.