On gehan's wilcoxon and the accelerated failure time model

A proof is provided to show that Gehan's 1965 generalization of the two sample Wilcoxon test lies outside the class of efficient score procedures for right censored data (Prentice 1978).     

A small sample test for an absolutely continuous bivariate exponential model

The finite sample distribution of the likelihood ratio sta-tistic is obtained for testing independence, given marginal homo-geneity, in the absolutely continuous bivariate exponential distri-bution of Block and Basu (1974). This test is discussed in light of the analysis of Gross and Lam (1981) on times to relief of head-aches for standard and new treatments on ten subjects.     

Local–global linkages: Challenges in organizing functional communities for ecosocial justice

ABSTRACT

Communities face “glocalized” ecosocial problems. Functional Community Organization bridges local problems with globalized issues, organizes community, and meets need. Models describe glocal linkages and their outcomes, but little is known of processes and challenges in organizing. This article qualitatively explores ecosocial organizing challenges in a Community Technology Center in a US city, which organized around e-waste and digital inequality. Findings indicate that Functional Communities may face challenges in organizing aims due to complexities in balancing need while concurrently addressing global problems and issues in structure, funding, and process. This may be mitigated through communication, focus, self-awareness, and reflexivity.     

A Theory of Disagreement in Repeated Games With Bargaining

This paper proposes a new approach to equilibrium selection in repeated games with transfers, supposing that in each period the players bargain over how to play. Although the bargaining phase is cheap talk (following a generalized alternating‐offer protocol), sharp predictions arise from three axioms. Two axioms allow the players to meaningfully discuss whether to deviate from their plan; the third embodies a “theory of disagreement”—that play under disagreement should not vary with the manner in which bargaining broke down. Equilibria that satisfy these axioms exist for all discount factors and are simple to construct; all equilibria generate the same welfare. Optimal play under agreement generally requires suboptimal play under disagreement. Whether patient players attain efficiency depends on both the stage game and the bargaining protocol. The theory extends naturally to games with imperfect public monitoring and heterogeneous discount factors, and yields new insights into classic relational contracting questions.     

Predicting probabilities for the 2010 FIFA World Cup games using a Poisson-Gamma model

In this paper, we provide probabilistic predictions for soccer games of the 2010 FIFA World Cup modelling the number of goals scored in a game by each team. We use a Poisson distribution for the number of goals for each team in a game, where the scoring rate is considered unknown. We use a Gamma distribution for the scoring rate and the Gamma parameters are chosen using historical data and difference among teams defined by a strength factor for each team. The strength factor is a measure of discrimination among the national teams obtained from their memberships to fuzzy clusters. The clusters are obtained with the use of the Fuzzy C-means algorithm applied to a vector of variables, most of them available on the official FIFA website. Static and dynamic models were used to predict the World Cup outcomes and the performance of our predictions was evaluated using two comparison methods.     

Ideological polarization in a decentralized party system: Explaining interstate differences

During the past decade scholars have noted growing ideological polarization between Democratic and Republican Party elites in the United States. This trend has occurred in a party system traditionally characterized as decentralized. This paper examines whether the trend towards partisan polarization noted by scholars at the national level has affected state party systems in similar ways. Are some state party systems more polarized than others? The paper uses a classification scheme of state party systems developed by David Mayhew to try to explain interstate differences in partisan polarization. The paper concludes that states with political environments that supported pragmatic and non-ideological traditional party organizations are less polarized in the modern era than states without such environments.     

A note on the analysis of parity progression ratios

Contingency table modeling procedures are proposed to examine the effects of independent variables on parity progression ratios. The methodology is outlined and an incremental-factorial linear model is developed.     

Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty.     

National pension systems and mass opinion: a case study of confidence, satisfaction and political attitudes in Norway

It is commonly assumed that popular support for national pension systems depends on widespread satisfaction with projected benefit levels among the working age population, and in particular that public support for the system will be jeopardised if the taxpayers do not feel confident about eventually receiving the promised benefits. On the basis of Norwegian survey data, two sets of questions are addressed in the article: (1) Is there a widespread lack of confidence in and satisfaction with the Norwegian National Insurance pension scheme? and (2) Is there an association between confidence and satisfaction and people's political attitudes towards the National Insurance pension scheme? Although we do not find any signs of a dramatic erosion of confidence towards the system, we do find that overall satisfaction with projected benefits is low among the working age population. Contrary to what one might expect, however, confidence and satisfaction from the point of view of individual interests appear not to be associated with a political preference for privatisation.     

Institutional academic industry relationship: results of interviews with university leaders

The purpose of this study was to explore qualitatively the nature, consequences and management of institutional academic industry relationships (IAIRs) in the life and health sciences. The results of our interviews suggest that in the institutions we visited IAIRs are common and deeply embedded in the academic enterprise both among institutional officials and the organization itself. Many believe these relationships have potential benefits for the research and education mission while creating the potential for conflicts of interest. Further tracking and study of the IAIRs is required to understand and anticipate the full effects of these relationships on the scientific enterprise in the United States.