DETERMINING OPTIMAL SHIFT SCHEDULES FOR TELEPHONE TRAFFIC EXCHANGE OPERATORS

A branch and bound algorithm is presented for determining the minimum number of telephone operators, and their shift schedules, required to meet demand that varies over a 24 hour operating period. An integer linear programming formulation is used, and the algorithm is described in terms of its separation, relaxation, fathoming, and branching procedures. Computational results are provided, using actual operating data. The results indicate that practical sized problems can be solved by the algorithm, involving as many as 100 different shift type variables and demand profiles typical of those encountered in many telephone traffic exchanges.     

THE EFFECT OF MASCULINE AND FEMININE BRAND NAMES ON THE PERCEIVED TASTE OF A CIGARETTE *

The purpose of the current study was to determine whether brand name can affect the public's evaluation of a product. All subjects smoked identical cigarettes. One group of subjects, however, knew the cigarettes by the name of “Frontiersman,” a masculine name, while the other group knew the cigarettes as “April,” a feminine name. Male and female subjects were asked to rate the cigarette on seven measures. Results show that women gave a more positive evaluation to the cigarette purportedly named “April,” while men gave a more positive evaluation to the identical cigarette when they thought it was named “Frontiersman.” In addition, women reacted more strongly than did men to brand name influence.     

SOME TESTS OF BINOMIAL PROBABILITY ASSESSMENTS

A replication of the Alpert-Raiffa probability assessment experiment is used to motivate the development of several tests for evaluating assessors. The tests permit an evaluation of an assessor's accuracy in estimating target quantities and in estimating his own uncertainty as well. Assumption of normal subjective distributions permits the determination of subjective variances. Data from trial assessments are employed to test models which assert that assessed quantities are equal to subjectively assessed error variances. Several tests of the latter type are compared using data from individual, as well as pooled, assessors.     

Presence Through Absence: Phylloxera and the Viticultural Imagination in McLaren Vale,South Australia

Grape phylloxera is an insect pest that has destroyed vineyards and brought ruin to winegrowing regions worldwide. In South Australia, however, strong biosecurity regulations have ensured it has remained absent. In this absence phylloxera takes on powerful symbolic value, and regional viticultural identities may be imagined in relation to the presence of phylloxera elsewhere. This paper draws from ethnographic research with grape growers and wine producers in McLaren Vale, a region whose vineyards are understood through this ‘phylloxera-free’ paradigm. The article specifically explores controversies around modification of South Australian biosecurity regulations in a way that favoured large winegrowing corporations’ need to more easily move material between regions, to the perceived detriment of vineyard security. The phylloxera risk has economic, social and symbolic dimensions in McLaren Vale, where the insect has become symbolically aligned with the most impersonal, pervasive and destructive aspects of globalised wine capitalism.     

‘Media Events’ reconsidered: from ritual theory to simulation and performativity

This paper re-examines the long-established notion of ‘media events’ by contrasting and critically appraising three distinct approaches to the question of media events. These are: ritual theory associated with Daniel Dayan and Elihu Katz, secondly, Jean Baudrillard’s approach rooted in his notions of simulation and ‘non-events’ and, finally, the more recent performative approaches to media and mediation. I take Sarah Kember and Joanna Zylinska’s reading of media events presented in Life After New Media (2012) as exemplary of the performative approach. An argument is made that the accounts of media events offered by performative approaches add very little, and, indeed, lack the critical insightfulness of the earlier approaches. Both ritual theory and Baudrillard’s thought are briefly reappraised and, against Nick Couldry, I try to show that these accounts are not characterised by binary and reductive thinking. The major misunderstandings concern the nature of the sacred and profane dualism and the further dualisms developed in Baudrillard’s thought, particularly the figures of implosion and reversibility. Finally, Baudrillard’s position on technology is addressed and the paper concludes with the suggestion that his account is not solely negative, since technological developments are not only at the mercy of ironic reversals they may also enable new rituals of disappearance.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Trade, education, and innovation: Prospects for the U.S. economy

This paper examines international trade issues as vital indicators of the economic prospects of the United States and other developed economies. In particular, it challenges misuses of the doctrine of mutual gains from trade and instead argues that comparative advantage does not guarantee increases in benefits to both trading partners—especially when one partner seeks to distort the market mechanism in its favor. In the face of such mercantilist or protectionist practices, efforts to advance innovation, without retaining manufacturing jobs, will not ensure continued prosperity, as the number of jobs entailed in the invention process is small compared with the number of jobs associated with manufacturing an innovative product for mass consumption. These matters call for the urgent rethinking of trade policy by the United States and other developed nations, if they are to balance their imports and exports and ensure continued economic growth.     

Specific Organizational Citizenship Behaviours and Organizational Effectiveness: The Development of a Conceptual Heuristic Device

Organizational citizenship behaviour has generally been associated with organizational effectiveness. However, recent research has shown that this may not always be the case and that certain types of organizational citizenship behaviour such as compulsory citizenship behaviour, may be inimical to the fulfillment of formal goals and organizational effectiveness. Using military historical and business organizational secondary data, the paper maintains that extreme variance in either organizational (task) or personal (social psychological) support organizational citizenship behaviour generates entropic citizenship behaviour which derails completely the effective accomplishment of formal organizational goals. A general model of organizational citizenship behaviour with entropic citizenship behavior as its novel conceptual boundary is developed in the paper, and four specific propositions with implications for future empirical research are delineated.