Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

Ethnicity,immigration process and short-term occupational mobility

The relationship between the ethnic characteristics of immigrants to the United States and their occupational mobility in the short term is explored. The data concern the period 1965-1970 and are taken from the 1970 census. The results indicate that race and sociocultural distance have important effects on occupational mobility. The study also shows that if educational status is controlled, the performance of Asian immigrants is more similar to that of blacks or Hispanics than it is to that of whites. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

Analysis of social pathologies in a policy context: A paradigm for action

Prevention continues to gain importance among the strategies open for governmental development of social policy. This paper offers two exploratory conceptual discussions related to prevention in social policy. The first is a representation of the policy making environment with special reference to the informational requirements for the development of policy. The second is a discussion of social pathologies, broadly defined as patterns of behavior with important negative repercussions on individuals whom we refer to as victims, and of possible strategies toward the development of (at least partial) preventive measures. The two discussions are interrelated as the shape of the second is dictated by the desiderata outlined in the first. The paper is divided into five parts:

1. Introduction: the conundrum of prevention.
2. The Development of a paradigm of the policy context.
3. Dependent variables: social pathologies.
4. Independent variables: a focus on structural determinants.
5. Conclusion: information requirements for preventive action.

     

Evaluating alternative approaches to strategic planning

The question which, unfortunately, often goes unanswered, is whether a company's process of corporate planning is optimal. Furthermore, even if they wished to answer such a question there is little in the literature which can provide them with a direct, and explicit evaluative model. This paper examines the development of planning and the many different contributors towards its theoretical underpinning. Whilst recognizing that planning is a field which is a ‘semantic's jungle’ the authors carefully pick their way through the mine-field of misunderstanding and misquotation and clearly establish a base-line for evaluation and indeed propose a detailed methodology. It is hoped that this paper will be a fore-runner of many which will assist the executive in his important evaluative role concerning alternative planning approaches.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF SOCIAL POWER IN TERMS OF DECISION THEORY1

The paper presents an extension of decision theory to the analysis of social power. The power of a person, A, over another person, B, is viewed in terms of the effect A has on B's decision. The analysis is based on the idea that B's decision regarding the performance of alternative behaviors is a function of 1) B's utility for the consequences of the behaviors and 2) B's subjective probabilities that the behaviors will lead to these consequences. In these terms, A's power over B lies in A's ability to mediate various consequences for B, contingent upon B's compliance or noncompliance. Subjects were asked to consider eight situations in which hypothetical individuals had to make a choice between two courses of action. In each situation another person (A) was attempting to induce the hypothetical individual (B) to choose one of the alternatives, while various situational factors were influencing B to choose the other alternative. The subjects were asked to consider B's utilities and subjective probabilities in each situation and to indicate whether or not B should comply with A and to make ratings of A's power. The decision theory analysis did well in predicting whether or not subjects would indicate that B should comply with A. Also, subjects generally were able to correctly specify whether A or the situational factors had more influence over B's decision. Finally, the subjects' ratings of A's power in the eight situations were highly related to the decision theoretic measure of power.     

How do marital status,work effort,and wage rates interact?

How marital status interacts with men's earnings is an important analytic and policy issue, especially in the context of debates in the United States over programs that encourage healthy marriage. This paper generates new findings about the earnings-marriage relationship by estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates. The estimates are based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel data, covering 23 years of marital and labor market outcomes, and control for unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate marriage effects on hours worked (our proxy for work effort) and on wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately. The estimates reveal that entering marriage raises hours worked quickly and substantially but that marriage's effect on wage rates takes place more slowly while men continue in marriage. Together; the stimulus to hours worked and wage rates generates an 18%-19% increase in earnings, with about one-third to one-half of the marriage earnings premium attributable to higher work effort. At the same time, higher wage rates and hours worked encourage men to marry and to stay married. Thus, being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.     

Decision Making in `Random in a Broad Sense' Environments

It is shown that the uncertainty connected with a `random in a broad sense' (not necessarily stochastic) event always has some `statistical regularity' (SR) in the form of a family of finite-additive probability distributions. The specific principle of guaranteed result in decision making is introduced. It is shown that observing this principle of guaranteed result leads to determine the one optimality criterion corresponding to a decision system with a given `statistical regularity'.     

Structure and process in occupational mobility

The distinction between structure and process in occupational mobility has been a dominant theme in contemporary research. While successive attempts to “solve” the structure/process dilemma have typically focused on new methodological procedures, we emphasize the conceptual issues underlying the distinction as a basis for further analysis. We introduce a simple two-stage model for the specification of mobility structure and process and use this model to evaluate current methodological “solutions” to the analysis of mobility.     

Technocratic Social Work at Home and Abroad: Australia and Iran

Technocratic social work conceived as the neutral application of professional skills has an inbuilt capacity for failing to recognize its social and political effects. Two recent books on social work exemplify this in countries as apparently diverse as Australia and Iran.