AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF SOCIAL POWER IN TERMS OF DECISION THEORY1

The paper presents an extension of decision theory to the analysis of social power. The power of a person, A, over another person, B, is viewed in terms of the effect A has on B's decision. The analysis is based on the idea that B's decision regarding the performance of alternative behaviors is a function of 1) B's utility for the consequences of the behaviors and 2) B's subjective probabilities that the behaviors will lead to these consequences. In these terms, A's power over B lies in A's ability to mediate various consequences for B, contingent upon B's compliance or noncompliance. Subjects were asked to consider eight situations in which hypothetical individuals had to make a choice between two courses of action. In each situation another person (A) was attempting to induce the hypothetical individual (B) to choose one of the alternatives, while various situational factors were influencing B to choose the other alternative. The subjects were asked to consider B's utilities and subjective probabilities in each situation and to indicate whether or not B should comply with A and to make ratings of A's power. The decision theory analysis did well in predicting whether or not subjects would indicate that B should comply with A. Also, subjects generally were able to correctly specify whether A or the situational factors had more influence over B's decision. Finally, the subjects' ratings of A's power in the eight situations were highly related to the decision theoretic measure of power.     

Japanese marketing strategies in the United Kingdom

This article is based on a study which examined hypotheses about Japanese marketing using a matched sample of British companies and their major Japanese competitors. Japanese subsidiaries in Britain were shown to be much more marketing-oriented, more responsive to strategic opportunities, and more single-minded in their pursuit of market share. Organizationally, there were few differences between the two groups. The Japanese subsidiaries, however, were more inclined to use product or market-based divisions and continuous, informal planning and control procedures. The result is that managerial focus and responsibility are centred upon overall product-market rather than financial or production performance, with continuous feedback facilitating rapid adaptation and implementation of marketing plans and strategy.     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.     

Confidence intervals for secondary parameters following a sequential test

In sequential studies, formal interim analyses are usually restricted to a consideration of a single null hypothesis concerning a single parameter of interest. Valid frequentist methods of hypothesis testing and of point and interval estimation for the primary parameter have already been devised for use at the end of such a study. However, the completed data set may warrant a more detailed analysis, involving the estimation of parameters corresponding to effects that were not used to determine when to stop, and yet correlated with those that were. This paper describes methods for setting confidence intervals for secondary parameters in a way which provides the correct coverage probability in repeated frequentist realizations of the sequential design used. The method assumes that information accumulates on the primary and secondary parameters at proportional rates. This requirement will be valid in many potential applications, but only in limited situations in survival analysis.     

Pricing in Electricity Markets

The technical characteristics of electricity generation and transmission have implications for the way in which economic principles are adapted to evaluate pricing and regulation issues in electricity markets. In particular, there is an externality associated with the way in which electricity flows in networks because of Kirchoff's laws. In this paper, a mathematical programming model is presented that simulates a competitive electricity market, based on the spatial-intertemporal equilibrium models pioneered by Takayama and Judge (1971). The model is used to simulate the operation of a hypothetical electricity market, illustrating some of the issues arising from the network externality.     

Correlation in a Bayesian framework

The authors consider the correlation between two arbitrary functions of the data and a parameter when the parameter is regarded as a random variable with given prior distribution. They show how to compute such a correlation and use closed form expressions to assess the dependence between parameters and various classical or robust estimators thereof, as well as between p‐values and posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis in the one‐sided testing problem. Other applications involve the Dirichlet process and stationary Gaussian processes. Using this approach, the authors also derive a general nonparametric upper bound on Bayes risks.     

Cohabitation in Great Britain: not for long, but here to stay

This paper uses a new source of data to study the dramatic increase in cohabiting unions in Great Britain. It analyses, in turn, entry into first partnership, the stability of cohabiting unions and repartnering after dissolution of cohabitation. In excess of 70% of first partnerships are now cohabitations, and these last a relatively short time before being either turned into marriage or dissolved. The shift to cohabitation as the dominant mode of first partnership plays an important role in the delay of first marriage and motherhood. The paper also investigates the factors that are associated with the outcome of cohabitations.     

Unmet Need for Family Planning in Developing Countries and Implications for Population Policy

Unmet need for family planning has been a core concept in international population discourse for several decades. This article reviews the history of unmet need and the development of increasingly refined methods of its empirical measurement and delineates the main questions that have been raised about unmet need during the past decade, some of which concern the validity of the concept and others its role in policy debates. The discussion draws heavily on empirical research conducted during the 1990s, much of it localized, in‐depth studies combining quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Of the causes of unmet need other than those related to access to services, three emerge as especially salient: lack of necessary knowledge about contraceptive methods, social opposition to their use, and health concerns about possible side effects. The article argues that the concept of unmet need for family planning, by joining together contraceptive behavior and fertility preferences, encourages an integration of family planning programs and broader development approaches to population policy. By focusing on the fulfillment of individual aspirations, unmet need remains a defensible rationale for the formulation of population policy and a sensible guide to the design of family planning programs.     

The success of protest groups: Multivariate analyses

This paper reviews earlier research and presents new analytical findings regarding the outcomes of social movements. Using the resource mobilization/management approach, empirical propositions that seek to explain protest group success or failure are tested. Based upon data gathered from a sample of 53 US protest groups, the causal models explained the majority of the variance in degree of success between these groups. Our findings indicate that protest groups which threaten to replace or destroy established groups are usually unsuccessful, and those having many strong alliances tend to be more successful than groups fighting alone. The use of violence does not greatly aid the prediction of group outcome because of the unpredictable, ambivalent reaction to violence by established groups.