Too Good to be False: An Essay in the Folklore of Social Science

In 1939, Carl Hovland and Robert R. Sears presented data that they believed linked fluctuations in the price of cotton to lynchings in the South, a linkage first suggested six years earlier by Arthur Raper. This correlation quickly became a popular illustration of frustration-aggression theory. A few years later, a statistical critique by Alexander Mintz cast the reality of the association into doubt, but a sample survey of members of the Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues reveals that Howland and Sears's "finding" is still widely, if imprecisely, known and accepted. Their article continues to be cited in the social-psychological literature and in many introductory textbooks. The failure of Mintz's critique to catch up with the striking but flawed, original report illustrates a structured impediment to reliable knowledge in the social sciences.     

Computer assisted strategic planning

This paper describes a representative, sectionalized, computer assisted strategic planning system, as developed and used by the authors. It suggests that the future direction of such programmes—with several already in use—is toward the development of approaches which combine simulation and linear programming to simultaneously address long and short-term objectives.     

Competitive strategies: a cognitive choice model

A theory of competition between firms in heterogeneous markets is formulated using a psychological model of choice, the heteroscedastic form of the Thurstone random strength model. Market shares are defined in terms of random variables which portray individual variation in perceived utility. The analysis focuses on the relationship between market shares and utility variances. Besides the general theory of competition two special cases are analyzed, each of which can be identified without precise knowledge of the utility parameters. The conclusions tend to support conventional marketing wisdom but emphasize that the degree of dominance of the market leader is a significant factor in its competitive strategy. Short and long-run analyses of the model are presented, and it is shown that the best policy for a particular firm in the short run remains optimal in the presence of competitors' reactions, but it may no longer be effective. The paper concludes with some comments on statistical implementation.     

The Moral Dilemmas of Positive Discrimination

Positive discrimination is a contentious topic both politically and in social policy terms. Reasoned debate about it has been hampered by a fundamental misunderstanding about what it is and what makes it peculiar, that took hold in the immediate post-Plowden era. This paper argues that what distinguishes positive discrimination from other practices with which it has been confused, such as selectivity and positive action, can only be understood in terms of basic canons of social or distributive justice. Having established the moral standing of positive discrimination, the paper goes on to examine arguments that attempt to “justify” it either in terms of justice itself or of utility, and to identify the circumstances in which its use might be “justified” in Britain. The questions that surround its proper use are identified as being in large measure moral dilemmas.     

New technology and developments in management organization

New technology can provide the means to institute considerable changes in management organization, both through its application to operations and through its direct use in managerial work. These changes are expected to lead to smaller more cohesive management structures on the basis of the advantages offered by new technology for control and integration. However, a number of organizational design choices are involved with the introduction of new technology. These may present uncertainties, and it is not expected that the changes discussed will be appropriate to all kinds of organization. In Britain, there are also particular institutional and cultural barriers to the full realization of new technology's managerial potential.     

Output planning for material requirements under uncertainty

This paper considers a production planning and control system requiring that, for each work station, a time-phased series of input and output values be estimated. It is assumed that the projected input levels can vary significantly across time periods and that anticipated output levels can be determined by management, subject to limits specified by available manpower and subcontracting. The actual input and output levels for each period depart from the planned levels according to a probability distribution determined empirically. An approach is presented that allows management to evaluate a chosen set of output levels to determine the probability that sufficient amounts of work will be available at a work station each period.     

Validation of an inferential approach for the measurement of illegitimacy

An inferential model which utilizes surname comparisons in inferring legitimacy status is developed and validated. Criterion validation is employed to assess the level of agreement between the inferential approach and the conventional reporting procedure. Data for the analysis are based on a sample of birth certificates contained in files of the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar year 1973. Results indicate that despite excessive error within some categories of the control variables, the inferential method is generally adequate to obtain reliable estimates of illegitimacy.