The use of a hand-held microcomputer in the collection of physiological,subjective and behavioral data in ecologically valid gambling settings

A small, hand-held micro-computer was linked with telemetry equipment to permit simultaneous collection of heart rate, subjective ratings, and behavioral/environmental events. The two objectives satisfied by the system were unobtrusiveness in real-life gambling settings and capacity to down-load data directly to a host computer.This project is supported by the Australian Research Scheme grant no. A 284157490 I. Receiver and transmitters loaned by the Department of Zoology, ANU, and technical advice from Jim Bishop and Lyle Carpenter.     

Wage patterns: An evolutionary perspective

The existence of wage patterns is often cited as evidence that the labor market is affected by institutional forces outside the purview of economic theory. In this paper, it is argued that such patterns can be understood as the result of an information-acquiring activity of labor market participants that enhances their chance of survival. Wage comparisons are selected, sometimes mistakenly, in an effort to cope with the uncertainty of the environment. This evolutionary analysis denies a distinction between market forces and spillovers. Helpful comments on an earlier draft were received from John Pencaval, Melvin Reder, and Stanley Siebert. The usual disclaimer attaches.     

The component structure of elderly population growth in the Netherlands: 1950–1980

While there is no doubt about the magnitude of the growth of older age groups in industrialized nations, its structural components are less well understood. This paper examines the roles played by cohort succession and mortality in the process for the Netherlands during the period 1950 to 1980. While the size of population aged 65 and over has increased for both males and females, increases in the size of succeeding cohorts explain all of the growth in the older male population. Reductions in mortality at the older old ages play a much greater role than do reductions at younger old ages; the latter reductions occur among females only.     

The level and growth of union/nonunion relative wage effects, 1967–1977

This paper pools cross-section data to obtain an estimate of the overall effects of unions on relative wages for the period 1967 through 1977. We found the average union wage premium for all workers to be roughly 24 percent, but that this premium varies substantially between subgroups of workers. Our analysis showed that real wage rates increased faster in the union sector than in the nonunion sector between 1967 through 1977. However, we found that this relative growth pattern in wages was caused by economic conditions rather than in any fundamental shift in the power of unions. We wish to thank James S. Cunningham, H. Gregg Lewis, and John Pencavel for helpful comments.     

Testing for not-at-home bias in social surveys

When subjects are not found at home in a social survey, the question arises whether the subsample encountered at home, on the first or subsequent visits, is random or biased. A procedure is presented by which this question can be statistically tested, by comparing the decline rate in unfound subjects, over repeated visits, with those expected if the subsample were random or strongly biased. The randomness of the subsamples can be compared between the first and subsequent visits. The procedure can be carried out during a programme of revisits, to check quickly whether a satisfactory sample is being obtained.     

Cancer Risk Assessment with Intermittent Exposure

Applications of methods for carcinogenic risk assessment often focus on estimating lifetime cancer risk. With intermittent or time-dependent exposures, lifetime risk is often approximated on the basis of a lifetime average daily dose (LADD). In this article, we show that there exists a lifetime equivalent constant dose (LECD) which leads to the same lifetime risk as the actual time-dependent exposure pattern. The ratio C = LECD/LADD then provides a measure of accuracy of risk estimates based on the LADD, as well as a basis for correcting such estimates. Theoretical results derived under the classical multistage model and the two-stage birth-death-mutation model suggest that the maximum value of C, which represents the factor by which the LADD may lead to underestimates of risk, will often lie in the range of 2- to 5-fold. The practical application of these results is illustrated in the case of astronauts subjected to relatively short-term exposure to volatile organics in a closed space station environment, and in the case of the ingestion of pesticide residues in food where consumption patterns vary with age.     

Two-parameter decision models and rank-dependent expected utility

This paper extends the existing literature concerning the relationship between two parameter decision models and those based on expected utility in two main directions. The first relaxes Meyer's location and scale (or Sinn's linear class) condition and shows that a two-parameter representation of preferences over uncertain prospects and the expected utility representation yield consistent rankings of random variables when the decision maker's choice set is restricted to random variables differing by mean shifts and monotone meanpreserving spreads. The second shows that the rank-dependent expected utility model is also consistent with two-parameter ranking methods if the probability transform satisfies certain dominance conditions. The main implication of these results is that the simple two-parameter model can be used to analyze the comparative statics properties of a wide variety of economic models, including those with multiple sources of uncertainty when the random variables are comonotonic. To illustrate this point, we apply our results to the problem of optimal portfolio investment with random initial wealth. We find that it is relatively easy to obtain strong global comparative statics results even if preferences do not satisfy the independence axiom.     

Whose attitudes to which aspects of work? or Cool media for high participation

Current approaches to the assessment of job attitudes—for use in job redesign—seem to centre upon the importance of job characteristics, such as those within the Job Characteristics Model. Data collection is largely through well-founded, repeatable, formal questionnaires. It is argued that a broader, ergonomics perspective is required, stressing the importance of job holders' attitudes to the technology being used, the physical environment and workplace, and procedures in support of work, such as training. Furthermore, if we wish to promote the participation of those whose work is being redesigned, the traditional and scientifically respectable questionnaire may not be the correct instrument. Data gathered by means of informal semi-structured discussion may better reflect the concerns and priorities of the people doing the work. Perhaps, to paraphrase Marshall McLuhan, formal job attitude instruments used alone are 'hot media', in the sense of being well-filled with data but low in participation. Informal discussion methods could be seen then as a 'cool medium', high in participation or completion by the audience (McLuhan 1964, pp. 22-23).     

Career mobility as a Poisson process: An application to the career dynamics of men and women in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from the Civil War to World War II

Poisson process models of upward mobility in job rewards are developed and estimated using event history techniques on data from one organization over a period of 80 years. The models developed permit the inclusion of independent variables which vary over a person's career and are used to analyze differences in the mobility of men and women. The main findings are (1) the career dynamics of men and women are similar in general form, both best described by a segmented, heterogeneous, and nonstationary Poisson process; (2) parametric differences exist between the models for men and women in terms of how certain independent variables affect the rate of arrival of opportunities to move up in the reward hierarchy and in terms of how others affect the rate of being given or taking advantage of such opportunities; and (3) both men and women appear to benefit by being in competition with one another for available opportunities. Theoretical interpretations of these results are discussed in relation to differences in the flow of opportunities to locations in the reward hierarchy occupied predominantly by men versus those occupied predominantly by women.