Ambiguous Criteria Weights in AHP: Consequences and Solutions*

Two related streams of criticism of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) have not yet been satisfactorily resolved, although both date from the early 1980s. The first relates to ambiguity in the meaning of the relative importance of one criterion as compared to another. The second is concerned with reversals of rank alleged to be possible when new options are introduced in an AHP problem. Both proponents and critics of AHP agree that rank reversals occur, but disagree on the legitimacy of such reversals. This paper shows that there is a necessary correspondence between the manner in which criteria importances are interpreted and computed and the manner in which the weights of the options under each criterion are normalized. In general, if this relationship is ignored, incorrect weights are generated for options under consideration regardless of whether new options are added or deleted. A rank reversal on the addition of an option is merely symptomatic of this fact, and such reversals do not occur when the correspondence condition is met.     

Lowering Inventory Systems Costs by Using Regression-Derived Estimators of Demand Variability*

Scientific techniques for inventory management typically are applied to systems containing many items. Such techniques require an estimation of the demand variance (and mean) of each item from historical data. This research demonstrates a significant potential for improvement in system cost performance from using least-squares regression fits of a variance-to-mean functional relation instead of the standard statistical variance estimate. Even when there is a moderate degree of heterogeneity among items and when the form of the variance-to-mean relation is misspecified, substantial cost savings may be realized. The cost of statistical uncertainty may be reduced by half. The research also provides evidence that system cost is fairly insensitive to the number of items used to fit the regression. This paper provides the underlying reason why a regression-derived variance estimator yields lower cost: it is less variable than the usual individual item variance estimator.     

A Warning Zone Method for the Multiperiod Cost Variance Investigation Problem

This paper develops a warning zone approach to make variance investigation decisions for a multiperiod process. The assumed cost generation process varies between an in-control and out-of-control state. These states cannot be directly observed, but must be inferred from the reported cost variances. Using the warning zone method of inference, the manager investigates the process whenever an upper threshold is exceeded or a lower threshold is exceeded for two consecutive periods. A four-state Markov chain models the resulting decision process. Steady state probabilities are derived for this chain and are used to obtain explicit formulas for the effectiveness and efficiency of the decision process. These formulas permit computation of the cost savings attainable by the warning zone method. Compared to other decision rules, the warning zone method is much simpler than the theoretically optimal Bayesian revision method, but uses more information than the Markovian control limit method. Numerical comparison of results shows that the warning zone method usually captures most of the available cost savings, even in cases where the Markovian control limit method does not perform well.     

Women's “Justification” of Domestic Violence in Egypt

We explored the influences of women's social learning, marital resources and constraints, and exposure to norms about women's family roles on their views about wife hitting or beating among 5,450 participants in the 2005 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey. One half justified wife hitting or beating for some reason. Women from rural areas who were exposed to domestic violence more often justified such acts. Dependent wives whose husbands had more schooling, were blood relatives, and were coresident more often justified such acts. In settings where women tended to marry at older ages, women less often justified such acts. Women's resources and constraints in marriage accounted for the largest share of the variability in their attitudes about domestic violence against women.     

Former Minister Zhang's discourse on SARS: Government's image restoration or destruction?

This study analyzes the image repair discourse by Chinese Health Minister Zhang Wenkang's discourse on SARS. The minister faced several accusations: the SARS outbreak was growing, the Chinese government had covered up the severity of this problem, the Chinese government ignored Taiwanese who suffered from SARS, and the Health Ministry provided information that was neither timely nor accurate. He employed several image repair strategies (denial, defeasibility, bolstering, minimization, differentiation, attack accuser, and corrective action). However, his messages were contradictory and apparently related on false information, so his efforts were unsuccessful and he was stripped of his office.     

In Vino Pecunia? The Association Between Beverage-Specific Drinking Behavior and Wages

The positive association between moderate alcohol consumption and wages is well documented in the economic literature. Positive health effects as well as networking mechanisms serve as explanations for the “alcohol–income puzzle.” Using individual-based microdata from the SOEP for 2006, we confirm that this relationship exists for Germany as well. More importantly, we shed light on the alcohol–income puzzle by analyzing, for the first time, the association between beverage-specific drinking behavior and wages. In our analysis, we disentangle the general wage effect of drinking into diverse effects for different types of drinkers. Mincerian estimates reveal significant and positive relationships between wine drinkers and wages as well as between multiple beverage drinkers and wages. When splitting the sample into age groups, the “drinking gain” disappears for employees under the age of 35 and increases in size and significance for higher age groups. We also find a “beer gain” for the oldest age group and male residents of rural areas as well as a “cocktail gain” for residents of urban areas. Several explanations for our empirical results are discussed in view of the likelihood that the alcohol–income puzzle is a multicausal phenomenon.

Immigrant Gateways and Hispanic Migration to New Destinations1

Our understanding of the underlying demographic components of population change in new Hispanic destinations is limited. In this paper, we (1) compare Hispanic migration patterns in traditional settlement areas with new growth in emerging Hispanic destinations; (2) examine the role of immigration vis‐à‐vis domestic migration in spurring Hispanic population redistribution; and (3) document patterns of migrant selectivity, distinguishing between in‐migrants and non‐migrant Hispanics at both the origin and destination. We use several recent datasets, including the 1990 and 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (which include new regional geocodes), and the 2005 and 2006 files of the American Community Survey. Our results document the widespread dispersion of the Hispanic population over the 1990–2006 period from established Hispanic gateways into new Hispanic areas and other parts of the country. Nearly one‐half of Hispanic net migration in new destinations comes from domestic gains. In contrast, both established and other Hispanic areas depend entirely on immigration, with each losing domestic migrants to high growth areas. Migrant flows also are highly differentiated by education, citizenship, and nativity. To fully understand the spatial diffusion of Hispanics requires a new appreciation of the complex interplay among immigration, internal domestic migration, and fertility.     

Hard and Soft Commitments to Human Rights Treaties, 1966–20001

What factors determine whether and how deeply countries will commit to the international human rights regime? Using data for up to 142 countries between 1966 and 2000, this article analyzes patterns of membership to the International Human Rights Covenants. The analysis produced two main conclusions. First, the potential costs associated with joining a treaty, rather than its substantive content, motivates the decision to join. Treaties that protect different rights but establish comparable implementation mechanisms exhibit similar patterns of membership, whereas treaties that protect identical rights but establish different implementation provisions exhibit dissimilar patterns of membership. Second, rates of treaty membership differ by level of commitment. Countries that sign human rights treaties differ from countries that ratify. Results are interpreted with respect to four theories of commitment and compliance: realism, liberalism, constructivism, and sociological institutionalism. Theories that emphasize the importance of a treaty’s costs (realism and institutionalism) fare better than theories that prioritize a treaty’s content (liberalism and constructivism).     

Acculturation and Enculturation Trajectories Among Mexican‐American Adolescent Offenders

This study examines changes over time in ethnic affirmation/belonging and ethnic identity achievement, Spanish language use, English language use, Mexican/Mexican‐American affiliation/identification and Anglo affiliation/identification in a sample of Mexican‐American adolescents participating in a longitudinal study of juvenile offenders. The Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure and the Acculturation Rating Scale for Mexican Americans‐II were completed by the Mexican‐American adolescents 7 times over a 3‐year period. The findings from longitudinal growth modeling analyses and growth mixture modeling analyses indicate that there is heterogeneity in the initial scores and changes over time on these variables that are related to markers for the cultural qualities of the home environment (i.e., generational status and mother's most frequent language use). In contrast to expectations, marginalized or assimilated acculturation trajectories/types were not overrepresented in this sample of adolescent offenders. Implications for our understanding of the nature of acculturation and enculturation processes and the way these processes are studied are discussed.