Condorcet's paradox and the likelihood of its occurrence: different perspectives on balanced preferences*

Many studies have considered the probability that a pairwise majority rule (PMR) winner exists for three candidate elections. The absence of a PMR winner indicates an occurrence of Condorcet's Paradox for three candidate elections. This paper summarizes work that has been done in this area with the assumptions of: Impartial Culture, Impartial Anonymous Culture, Maximal Culture, Dual Culture and Uniform Culture. Results are included for the likelihood that there is a strong winner by PMR, a weak winner by PMR, and the probability that a specific candidate is among the winners by PMR. Closed form representations are developed for some of these probabilities for Impartial Anonymous Culture and for Maximal Culture. Consistent results are obtained for all cultures. In particular, very different behaviors are observed for odd and even numbers of voters. The limiting probabilities as the number of voters increases are reached very quickly for odd numbers of voters, and quite slowly for even numbers of voters. The greatest likelihood of observing Condorcet's Paradox typically occurs for small numbers of voters. Results suggest that while examples of Condorcet's Paradox are observed, one should not expect to observe them with great frequency in three candidate elections.     

Central place theory and the location of services in Colorado in 1899

Central Place Theory predicts the geographic distribution of services in an economy. Using the 1899 Colorado State Business Directory, this case study examines retail grocers, physicians, wholesale grocers and dentists. As predicted by the theory, the distribution of grocers, physician, and dentists closelyailable parallels population patterns. Higher order services such as dentistry are available at few centers while low order services such as groceries and medical care are widely available. On the other hand, the distribution of wholesaling corresponds to location theories for producer services. These services concentrate in highly accessible trade entrepots and gateway centers. Overall the 1899 pattern is much like today.     

Risk reduction or risk compensation? The case of mandatory safety-belt use laws

The technological approach to risk regulation seeks to lessen the incidence of mortality and morbidity by modifying environmental conditions. Insofar as risk-taking behavior is purposive, social scientists have predicted that technological progress may be negated by various forms of risk compensation. The validity of this hypothesis is tested in the transportation sector with data from the U.S. on the effects of new mandatory safety-belt-use laws. A fixed-effects model of traffic fatality counts is estimated using pooled data from 50 states during the 1975–1987 period. Results suggest that such laws have reduced mortality among car occupants to a degree that is compatible with the predictions of technologists. However, there is weak evidence of increased mortality among some nonoccupants, a pattern predicted by risk-compensation theorists. The lifesaving effects of belt-use laws are largest in states that permit primary police enforcement and appear to be somewhat larger for front-seat occupants age 21 and under. Although offsetting behavior appears to be small relative to lifesaving effects, it may take several more years for any compensatory behavior to achieve a new equilibrium.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Centers for Disease Control to the New England Injury Prevention Research Center.     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.     

Women’s Involvement in Terrorism

Women have had a long history of participating in terrorist activity. This history extends from the earliest modern terrorist group, from the nineteenth century Russian People’s Will to the current wave of suicide bombings carried out by the Chechen Black Widows and the Tamil Tiger’s Birds of Paradise. This article traces the history of female involvement in modern terrorism and then goes on to make a number of generalizations about this experience. Among other things, the writers point out that women have played strong leadership roles in left-wing, revolutionary bands, while these roles have been far fewer with right-wing and racist aggregations. Women have tended to be late-comers to contemporary, religiously-inspired terrorism: Muslim religious authorities first had to endorse their participation.     

Childbearing Strategies Among the Uighur Urban Educated Elite in Ürümqi

Uighur families in Ürümqi, the capital of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region in Northwest China, have undergone tremendous changes since 1949 and the start of People's Republic of China era. In the first decade of the PRC era Ürümqi experienced tremendous population growth among both the Han and Uighur population as well as going through an intense industrialisation process initiated by the central government. As urbanisation and industrialisation have continued until the present Uighur families have responded to these changes by initiating childbearing strategies that take into account government policy as well as their own interests. William Goode's convergence theory of family characteristics has helped conceptualise how families across diverse cultures change their decisionmaking strategies over the course of the transition to modernity. Uighur couples have had increasingly fewer children over the decades, based on factors they share in common with other modernising societies such as the late age of marriage, the increased power of women to regulate their births, the expense of raising children, and the difficulties of finding childcare. Goode's theory, however, does not account for the influence of a strong state which has proved to have a major influence in the decision of many Uighur couples to stop at one child.