A hypothesis about the decline of fertility

The hypothesis proposed earlier seems to be supported by the analysis of U.S. fertility. Urbanization was consistently negatively correlated with thelevel of fertility in 1810, 1860, 1920, and 1940. Urbanization was not significantly correlated with thedecline of fertility in the period, i.e. from 1800 to 1860; from 1860 to 1920; and from 1920 to 1940. For the period from 1800 to 1860, however, the decline was closely associated with a proxy variable for what is called the spirit of autonomy, i.e., a feeling of control over one's life. It is hypothesized that this sense of control extended to control over fertility. After 1860 the ideas became so widespread that they were no longer associated with any particular group, region, religion, or class. It was just a matter of time until the ideas spread slowly to all groups.     

The Effect of Risk Beliefs on Property Values: A Case Study of a Hazardous Waste Site1

Health risk beliefs of homeowners near a landfill site were assessed in a survey and compared to expert judgments of the health risks of living near the site. A bimodal distribution of health risk beliefs suggested sharp disagreement between the experts and at least some of the residents. Correlates of high risk beliefs included perception of odor from the site, exposure to media coverage of the problem, having children living at home, age (younger respondents more concerned), and gender (females more concerned). An aggregated neighborhood health risk belief predicted reductions in home prices even after controlling for home physical characteristics, such as size and other disamenities such as proximity to a freeway. In the 4100 homes near the site, the estimated depression in property values was estimated to total about $40.2 million before the site was closed and to be about $19.7 million after closure. Implications of these results for community conflict and for benefit-cost analysis of hazard site remediation are discussed.     

Civil Society Opposition to Nonferrous Metals Mining in Montana

This paper discusses the opposition of civil society to nonferrous metals mining in Montana. The mineral resources and mining history of Montana are discussed, as is the vibrant civil society of that state. Montana’s civil society has opposed mining due to its environmental effects, particularly upon areas of high conservation value. This opposition has involved litigation and the implementation of a ban on the use of cyanide by the mining industry. The paper concludes with a discussion of whether this opposition to mining has damaged the economy of the state and Montana’s future as an example of the “New West,” wherein amenities based growth act as the principal agent of economic activity.     

Remedial Policies in Radiologically-Contaminated Forests: Environmental Consequences and Risk Assessment

As a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, large forested areas in Europe were contaminated by radionuclides. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions not only economic costs, but also human and environmental risk assessment are desired. Forest remediation by organic layer removal, one of the most promising cleanup policies, is considered in this paper. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in forests. The FORESTPATH model^(1,2) is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the application of the remedial policy. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus.