Childbearing Strategies Among the Uighur Urban Educated Elite in Ürümqi

Uighur families in Ürümqi, the capital of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region in Northwest China, have undergone tremendous changes since 1949 and the start of People's Republic of China era. In the first decade of the PRC era Ürümqi experienced tremendous population growth among both the Han and Uighur population as well as going through an intense industrialisation process initiated by the central government. As urbanisation and industrialisation have continued until the present Uighur families have responded to these changes by initiating childbearing strategies that take into account government policy as well as their own interests. William Goode's convergence theory of family characteristics has helped conceptualise how families across diverse cultures change their decisionmaking strategies over the course of the transition to modernity. Uighur couples have had increasingly fewer children over the decades, based on factors they share in common with other modernising societies such as the late age of marriage, the increased power of women to regulate their births, the expense of raising children, and the difficulties of finding childcare. Goode's theory, however, does not account for the influence of a strong state which has proved to have a major influence in the decision of many Uighur couples to stop at one child.     

Siblings as Confidants: Emotional Understanding, Relationship Warmth, and Sibling Self-Disclosure

Associations among (a) self-disclosures between early adolescent siblings, (b) emotional understanding, and (c) relationship warmth were investigated. Grade 5–6 children (M age = 11.5 years) were interviewed concerning the incidence of disclosures to closest-in-age siblings (20 = older, 20 = younger), feelings regarding disclosing (or not), and sibling relationship quality. Warmth was measured with the Sibling Relationship Questionnaire (Furman & Buhrmester, 1985) and emotional understanding was assessed with the Hypothetical Relationships Picture Task (adapted from Schneider, 1989, & Aquan-Assee, 1992). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated self-disclosure was positively associated with feeling good about sharing and negatively associated with reports of not trusting or not receiving emotional support from their sibling. Sibling relationship warmth was a key characteristic associated with both emotional understanding and self-disclosure; female target children demonstrated greater emotional understanding. Warmth, but not emotional understanding, was associated with self-disclosure. Findings are discussed in light of the importance of links between affective relationships and children's social-emotional understanding.     

Effect of systematic sampling on arima models

Given a general homogeneous non-stationary autoregressive integrated moving average process ARIMA(p,d,q), the corresponding model for the subseries obtained by a systematic sampling is derived. The article then shows that the sampled subseries approaches approximately to an integrated moving average process IMA(d,l), l≤(d-l), regardless of the autoregressive and moving average structures in the original series. In particular, the sampled subseries from an ARIMA (p,l,q) process approaches approximately to a simple random walk model.     

Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk‐ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.     

Mediator Listening,Dispute Reframing,and Mediation Outcome: A Pilot Study

This study examined the impact of mediator listening style on reframing, mediation outcome, and parties' perceptions of mediator performance. Trained mediators from the Alternative Dispute Resolution program at James Madison University served as third-party neutrals for thirty-two mediation sessions. Three experimental conditions tested critical listening, discriminative listening, and empathic listening. Significant differences were found among the listening conditions for reframing and mediation outcomes. Results suggest that mediators using empathic listening facilitate more conflict resolution and dispute settlement than mediators not using empathic listening. Analyses were done examining the subsequent effects of mediator listening style and reframing on parties' perceptions of mediator performance. Factor analysis and analysis of variance tests indicate disputants perceive empathic mediators as more fair and more objective than nonempathic mediators.     

Standard Errors for Elasticities: A Comparison of Bootstrap and Asymptotic Standard Errors

This article compares two methods of deriving standard errors for elasticities in a linear expenditure demand system with first-order autoregressive errors. The first is the ordinary Taylor series method and the second is Efron's bootstrap. In an example problem, these two methods yielded similar values for the standard errors, with the exception of the income elasticity standard errors, for which the asymptotic standard errors were apparently too large by a factor of two.