Condorcet's paradox and the likelihood of its occurrence: different perspectives on balanced preferences*

Many studies have considered the probability that a pairwise majority rule (PMR) winner exists for three candidate elections. The absence of a PMR winner indicates an occurrence of Condorcet's Paradox for three candidate elections. This paper summarizes work that has been done in this area with the assumptions of: Impartial Culture, Impartial Anonymous Culture, Maximal Culture, Dual Culture and Uniform Culture. Results are included for the likelihood that there is a strong winner by PMR, a weak winner by PMR, and the probability that a specific candidate is among the winners by PMR. Closed form representations are developed for some of these probabilities for Impartial Anonymous Culture and for Maximal Culture. Consistent results are obtained for all cultures. In particular, very different behaviors are observed for odd and even numbers of voters. The limiting probabilities as the number of voters increases are reached very quickly for odd numbers of voters, and quite slowly for even numbers of voters. The greatest likelihood of observing Condorcet's Paradox typically occurs for small numbers of voters. Results suggest that while examples of Condorcet's Paradox are observed, one should not expect to observe them with great frequency in three candidate elections.     

现代西方经济周期与经济学说的关系

20世纪30年代经济大危机爆发后,新古典经济学产生危机,凯恩斯掀起了现代经济思想史上的"革命".五六十年代,"凯恩斯经济学"的实施,导致了新的危机--通货膨胀危机,70年代后凯恩斯经济学悄然退场,各色"新自由主义"经济学一度回潮.80年代末、90年代初,高失业率和生产停滞重新成为美国等西方国家的主要经济问题,"新凯恩斯主义"--"现代主流经济学新综合派"应运而生.经济学上的危机、革命和综合,是西方现代经济运行的必然选择.     

黑龙江省"十五"期间招商引资总体情况与效益分析

通过统计资料,本文从总量结构、增长速度、内外资结构和地区结构四个方面对"十五"期间黑龙江省的招商引资工作进行了总体的情况和效益分析。在总量结构分析中,发现贸易总额增长但项目数量却变化不大;从增长速度看,各项指标都呈稳步上升态势,显示黑龙江省的招商引资工作处在高速增长阶段;从内资和外资结构看,内资在增长和比重上都优于外资;在对地区结构的分析中,发现总体上处于稳定增长态势,地区间则不均衡。最后,结合分析结论,进一步简要阐述了其政策意义。     

论矿难的国家赔偿责任

自2004年末以来,我国重特大煤矿安全事故频发,引起了社会各界对矿难的广泛关注。其中矿难赔偿系焦点问题之一,但综观相关研讨,大都仅限于煤矿企业的赔偿,国家赔偿则几无涉及。而矿难国家赔偿责任的确立,无论在理论上还是实践中均有其积极之意义。基于国家赔偿责任在本质上是一种特殊的民事责任,故在认定和实现的过程中不能仅仅依据《国家赔偿法》,亦理应遵循相关的民事法律规定。     

Central place theory and the location of services in Colorado in 1899

Central Place Theory predicts the geographic distribution of services in an economy. Using the 1899 Colorado State Business Directory, this case study examines retail grocers, physicians, wholesale grocers and dentists. As predicted by the theory, the distribution of grocers, physician, and dentists closelyailable parallels population patterns. Higher order services such as dentistry are available at few centers while low order services such as groceries and medical care are widely available. On the other hand, the distribution of wholesaling corresponds to location theories for producer services. These services concentrate in highly accessible trade entrepots and gateway centers. Overall the 1899 pattern is much like today.     

Risk reduction or risk compensation? The case of mandatory safety-belt use laws

The technological approach to risk regulation seeks to lessen the incidence of mortality and morbidity by modifying environmental conditions. Insofar as risk-taking behavior is purposive, social scientists have predicted that technological progress may be negated by various forms of risk compensation. The validity of this hypothesis is tested in the transportation sector with data from the U.S. on the effects of new mandatory safety-belt-use laws. A fixed-effects model of traffic fatality counts is estimated using pooled data from 50 states during the 1975–1987 period. Results suggest that such laws have reduced mortality among car occupants to a degree that is compatible with the predictions of technologists. However, there is weak evidence of increased mortality among some nonoccupants, a pattern predicted by risk-compensation theorists. The lifesaving effects of belt-use laws are largest in states that permit primary police enforcement and appear to be somewhat larger for front-seat occupants age 21 and under. Although offsetting behavior appears to be small relative to lifesaving effects, it may take several more years for any compensatory behavior to achieve a new equilibrium.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Centers for Disease Control to the New England Injury Prevention Research Center.     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.