Propagation of Individual Bias through Group Judgment: Error in the Treatment of Asymmetrically Informative Signals

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Group decision making is commonly used in juries, businesses, and in politics to increase the informational basis for a decision and to improve judgment accuracy....     

Insurance for low-probability hazards: A bimodal response to unlikely events

Two insurance experiments using real-money consequences and multiple rounds to provide experience are described. In the first experiment, subjects bid for insurance to prevent a fixed loss of 4 at probabilities ranging from .01 to .9. Mean bids were near expected value except at the lowest probability of.01, for which a very bimodal distribution was observed (some subjects bid zero and others bid much more than expected value). A second experiment explored this bimodality at a probability of .01 with loss increased to4 at probabilities ranging from .01 to .9. Mean bids were near expected value except at the lowest probability of.01, for which a very bimodal distribution was observed (some subjects bid zero and others bid much more than expected value). A second experiment explored this bimodality at a probability of .01 with loss increased to 40. A similar bimodal distribution was obtained that persisted over 50 rounds of experience. These laboratory results are consistent with field evidence for low-probability hazards, for which people appear either to dismiss the risks or to worry too much about them.We would like to thank Alan Carlin, Ann Fisher, Risa Palm, and David Brookshire for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this article, and Rebecca Boyce, Julie Irwin, Glenn Russell, and Joy Smith for research assistance. We also gratefully acknowledge support from the University of Colorado Council on Research and Creative Work for human subject payments and from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation for support for research design and analysis provided as part of Cooperative Agreement #CR812054. All errors, opinions and conclusions are the sole responsibility of the authors.     

The marginal value of job safety: A contingent valuation study

This article estimates the marginal value of safety based on contingent values obtained in a labor-market-oriented national random-sample mail survey. Thus, worker preferences for safety are assessed directly, in contrast to the hedonic price method that has been used almost exclusively in related studies. Key aspects of this article are that (1) contingent values are obtained for small changes in risks of job-related fatal accidentsperceived by respondents, and (2) relationships are analyzed between respondents' marginal safety values and their income, socioeconomic/demographic characteristics, union membership status, and initial levels of risk faced.     

An Analysis of Leadership Within the Social Work Profession

This article presents the results of a study investigating how individuals currently in leadership positions within the Council on Social Work Education and the National Association of Social Workers perceive social work leadership. A random sample of 75 deans and directors and 75 executive directors and presidents were selected to participate in a telephone survey employing an eight-item, open-ended questionnaire. The findings define leadership within the social work profession and describe social work leadership as different from other professions. The participants identified essential skills for social work leaders and articulated a mission for social work leadership in the 21st century.     

The Doctor and the Social Services. Huws Jones,University of London,the Athlone Press, 1971. 56 Pages. Hardbound

Values in social work are part of the instrumentality for service delivery and decision making.

As an outgrowth of modern science, a value conflict has emerged between humanitarianism (the rights and dignity of the individual) and individualism (the distortion of individual rights into an antisocial mode). Current interpretations of individualism challenge the social value of mutuality upon which the “social” in social work is based Values cannot be “proved” in a logical positivist model of truth.

One example of the inappropriate use of logical positivism can be seen in social science research. A recommitment to values in social work theory and practice is emphasized and alternative research styles, stressing values, are suggested.     

Book Review

Abstract

Social Work in Rural Communities, 2nd ed., edited by Leon H. Ginsberg. Alexandria, VA: Council on Social Work Education. $13.00 (paper).     

Etiological Patterns of Child Abuse and Neglect

A review of the various etiological possibilities for child abuse and neglect, designed to offer an additional and different possibility. Consideration is first given to problems, namely the lack of universal definition, heterogeneous effects, and retrospective research. The probability of multifactor models is noted, and sexual abuse is given separate consideration, followed by an exploration of the existing models termed ecological, transactional, transitional, and attachment. An interactive aggression model is then offered as the new possibility. Empirical evidence for cultural and/or ethnic predispositions suggests that society can be a supporting or inhibiting factor in terms of promoting or opposing violence.     

A Psychosocial View of Mental Illness: An Introduction to Part II

Increasingly, grandmothers are parenting grandchildren in homes where parental presence is sporadic or nonexistent. A disproportionate percentage of African American grandparents fall in this category. The author reviews the literature on the African American grandmother in the context of the African American family and describes a practice model for service provision to those women who seek support as they “parent again.”     

Talking while Computing in Groups: The Not-So-Private Functions of Computational Private Speech in Mathematical Discussions

Students often voice computations during group discussions of mathematics problems. Yet, this type of private speech has received little attention from mathematics educators or researchers. In this article use excerpts from middle school students' group mathematical discussions to illustrate and describe “computational private speech.” We analyze four examples of computational private speech using lenses from neo-Vygotskian psychology, sociolinguistics, and distributed cognition. Our analyses of computational private speech challenge the individualistic developmental assumptions of some neo-Vygotskian theories of private speech, and we show how this form of private speech can serve socio-cognitive functions during group mathematical discussions.