Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

Quality of Life in Intentional Communities

The present study was initiated to investigate levels and predictors of wellbeing among inhabitants of intentional communities (ICs). An anonymous, Internet-based questionnaire was distributed to US and Canadian ICs. Responses were obtained from 913 members. Wellbeing was measured by the widely used satisfaction with life scale (SWLS). Hierarchical linear regression analyses were run to test the predictive validity of Social support, Identity fusion, Meaning in life, Community satisfaction and Life change, and Religious activity above and beyond demographic variables and personality traits. Mean scores on the SWLS were estimated to 5.27 and 5.47 (1–7 scale) for men and women, respectively. The full model explained 41.4% of the variance for men and 38.2% for women. Personality explained 13.4 (men) and 14.4% (women) of the variation, while demographic variables only had a minor impact. Overall, presence of Meaning in life and Social support were the most important predictors. The IC inhabitants reported wellbeing on par with the highest scores previously published. The findings support the contention that sustainability, in the form of a communal lifestyle of low ecological footprint, may be promoted without forfeiting wellbeing.     

Assessing the Tongzhi Label: Self-Identification and Public Opinion

Tongzhi is one of several Chinese terms that refer to individuals who are attracted to the same sex. Using data from two different surveys in Hong Kong, this research note examines how the term tongzhi coexists with other terms. We investigate the prevalence of self-identification as tongzhi, and we explore the extent to which using the term tongzhi influences public attitudes toward gay people and gay rights. Activists began popularizing the term tongzhi in the late 1980s, but less than one third of the participants in our 2008 survey of sexual orientation minorities (n = 728) described themselves as tongzhi. Using a split-ballot experiment in a 2013 public opinion poll (n = 831), we found that attitudes toward gay people and gay rights were not significantly impacted by whether questions were phrased in terms of tongzhi or the main alternative term tongxinglianzhe. We discuss how our findings can enrich understandings of earlier research and illuminate avenues for future study.     

Exchanging Views: Knowledge Transfer Through Literary Translation

Translation supports cultural interaction by fostering mutual understanding and enabling people to access foreign cultures. Logically, translation also furthers knowledge transfer in a broad sense. Drawing on recent scholarship that focuses on the migration and mobility of literary products (Damrosch, 2003; Casanova, 2004), this article seeks to show that the knowledge generated by both the practice of translation and the interdisciplinary area of Translation Studies is a key factor in shaping the image of a national culture.     

The Sociological Tradition or Traditions?

Almost five decades on, Nisbet’s The Sociological Tradition remains instructive for anyone seeking to write a general history of sociology. Combining a distinctive approach to the history of ideas with a curious lack of methodological self-consciousness, its dated feel belies the relevance of its substantive concerns.     

People,Power, and Land: New Enclosures on a Global Scale

A global land rush is aggressively underway. It is reinventing frontier narratives wherever farmland, rangeland, and forestland appear “underutilized,” particularly in the Global South. Though the means and motives of these acquisitions are diverse, the lens of “new enclosures” lends itself to focusing on their similarities. New enclosures surpass the enclosures of bygone centuries in scale and speed and in the plethora of resources they reach. Sociological interventions, both theoretical and applied, are needed to contextualize and concretize this burgeoning alienation of land rights and power contingencies across communities and continents.     

Patterns of Nonverbal Behavior Associated with Truth and Deception: Illustrations from Three Experiments

The digital age has brought with it new and powerful computer-based methods of analyzing heretofore elusive patterns of nonverbal behavior. C-BAS (Meservy 2010) is a computer-assisted behavioral observation tool for identifying and tracking nonverbal behaviors from video. THEME (Magnusson, The hidden structure of interaction: from neurons to culture patterns, IOS Press, Amsterdam, pp 4–22, 2005) is a software program that discovers patterns among discrete events in time-ordered data. Together, these tools enable more precise measurement and analysis of nonverbal behavioral dynamics. Applications to three corpora derived from interpersonal deception experiments reveal unique nonverbal patterns that distinguish deceptive from nondeceptive interactions. The first and second experiments produced serial, hierarchically related patterns of behaviors that differed in length and complexity between truthful and deceptive participants during interviews about a theft and cheating, respectively. The third experiment produced differential patterns by and among group members completing a task. Deceivers were inclined toward strategic initiations and interactional control, whereas suspicious group members adopted a more passive, possibly watchful stance. Discovery of these patterns challenges the prevailing view that nonverbal behaviors are too faint and inconsistent to identify deceptive communication. Results have numerous implications regarding the following: the development of new measurement tools locating significant effects of nonverbal behaviors, support for theory that coherent and repetitive relationships exist within and among interactants’ communication, demonstration of the role of nonverbal behaviors in deceptive communication and the dynamic and strategic nature of deception.     

STUDENTS WHO CHOOSE AND THE SCHOOLS THEY LEAVE: Examining Participation in Intradistrict Transfers

Data from one urban school district is analyzed to examine equity‐based arguments about school choice as they pertain to intradistrict transfer policies. We specifically examine which factors influence the propensity for parents to participate in choice, and how choice schools differ from the schools that students are zoned to attend. We find that advantaged and disadvantaged parents make similar choices in that they are both likely to choose more affluent schools with better academic records than the schools they are zoned to attend. However, these choices operate in different spheres, as advantaged parents choose the most affluent schools with the best academic records, and disadvantaged parents choose away from the least affluent schools with the worst academic records to schools that are slightly better.