Indigenous Australian population projections: problems and prospects

According to estimates from the 2006 Census, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians made up 2.5 % of the total Australian population. However, the focus of research and policy debate on Indigenous Australians far exceeds their population size for reasons of history, socio-economics, geography and demography. This has led to a need for accurate population projections of the population. In this paper, we outline a number of issues related to Indigenous population projections. These include the nature of self-identification; the impact of particular policy changes; significant differences in demographic parameters; and high rates of exogamy, especially in urban areas. We also document the relative accuracy of past and current population projections. In the final section of the paper we outline a research agenda that has the potential to lead to new and better Indigenous population projections.     

Military Veterans Sharing First‐Person Stories of War and Homecoming: A Pathway to Social Engagement,Personal Healing,and Public Understanding of Veterans' Issues

What power, meaning and value may exist within a soldier's first‐person war story? Former Marine captain Tyler Boudreau, quoted below, suggests that constructing a personal narrative of the traumas of war and homecoming, then “asking questions” of the story, can provide a veteran with a “chart.” If this is so, can that chart help one along the road to healing from those traumas, especially when that story is shared with others? Could there be dangerous turns or pitfalls on the journey? How can a public sharing of narratives of wartime experiences help audiences to better respond to those veterans and families who must cope with a difficult transition from the battlefield to home? What guidelines can be used effectively to train and prepare storytellers for their role? In this collaborative article, strengthened by the clinical wisdom of various consulting clinicians, we examine these questions through the lenses of two programs that provide veterans opportunities to share their war stories publicly. They include the Veterans Education Project (VEP) and the “100 Faces of War Experience” project (100 Faces).     

The effects of loneliness on telemarketing fraud vulnerability among older adults

Older adults are disproportionately affected by telemarketing fraud, especially those who are socially isolated. Twenty-eight older adult telemarketing fraud victims completed a questionnaire assessing loneliness and other variables related to telemarketing fraud vulnerability. Victims tended to be male, divorced/separated, and college-educated, between ages of 60 and 70. Age and marital status were significantly associated with loneliness. This study is an important first step for additional research in this area and may enhance the prevention and intervention efforts of social service providers who work with older adults who may be most vulnerable.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

Bounded Memory and Biases in Information Processing

Before choosing among two actions with state‐dependent payoffs, a Bayesian decision‐maker with a finite memory sees a sequence of informative signals, ending each period with fixed chance. He summarizes information observed with a finite‐state automaton. I characterize the optimal protocol as an equilibrium of a dynamic game of imperfect recall; a new player runs each memory state each period. Players act as if maximizing expected payoffs in a common finite action decision problem. I characterize equilibrium play with many multinomial signals. The optimal protocol rationalizes many behavioral phenomena, like “stickiness,” salience, confirmation bias, and belief polarization.     

Creating trauma-informed child welfare systems using a community assessment process

This article describes a community assessment process designed to evaluate a specific child welfare jurisdiction based on the current definition of trauma-informed child welfare and its essential elements. This process has recently been developed and pilot tested within three diverse child welfare systems in the United States. The purpose of the assessment is to identify strengths and barriers related to trauma and child welfare in each site, to make tailored recommendations to help the sites better understand, and to address the impact of trauma on the families served and on the child welfare system itself. The specific components of the assessment process will be explained, and a summary of some of the findings that were common across sites will be provided. Recommendations for future work will also be discussed.     

Brief report: the relationship between multiple forms of oppression and subjective health among Black lesbian and bisexual women

This study was designed to explore the relationships between multiple forms of oppression and subjective physical health among a community sample of 85 Black lesbian and bisexual women. Self-report surveys assessing health behaviors, physical and mental health status, and experiences with discrimination were administered during a weekend retreat of a community-based organization serving this population. Structural equation modeling showed there were significant, but different, relationships between subjective health and two types of oppression, heterosexism and weight-based discrimination. Further research on the independent and intersectional effects of multiple forms of oppression on health is needed.