基于数学建模的人口结构与经济发展研究

文章通过梳理我国第六次人口普查的相关数据,建立了人口总量增长、未来老龄人口和劳动人口三个预测模型,通过SPSS软件拟合人口出生率和死亡率的发展曲线,及劳动和老龄人口历年增长率的曲线方程,得到预测未来人口总量、老龄人口和劳动人口所占比例发展趋势。预计在2026年我国人口总量达到峰值(142010万人),这与国家人口战略研究报告中预测的数据接近。根据计算的结果,结合修正的道格拉斯模型,讨论了人口结构的变化对经济发展的影响。     

Top management team characteristics and organizational creativity

Drawing on the upper-echelon perspective, we investigated the impact of top management team (TMT) characteristics on organizational creativity. An organizational creativity index was used as a dependent variable to examine creativity at the organizational level. The results of the statistical analysis generally supported our hypotheses. The size of the TMT had a significant and negative impact on organizational creativity. The average age of the TMT was also negatively associated with organizational creativity. However, functional diversity of the TMT had a significantly positive impact on organizational creativity. These findings have important conceptual and practical implications. This study increased our understanding of the relationship between TMT characteristics and organizational creativity by introducing TMT characteristics as antecedents of factors influencing organizational creativity. This study suggests fruitful avenues for further research of this important yet understudied topic and useful managerial tools for composition of an adequate board for enhancing organizational creativity.     

How Do the Urban Poor Survive? A Comparative Ethnography of Subsistence Strategies in Argentina,Ecuador, and Mexico

Qualitative Sociology - Drawing on ethnographic data collected in three informal communities, one in Argentina, one in México, and one in Ecuador, we address the long-standing question posed...     

How to Make a Newcomer Happy? The Mediating Role of Career Commitment on the Relationship Between Unmet Expectations and Job Satisfaction

This study focuses on the relationships of unmet expectations to occupational commitment and job satisfaction. The direct and indirect (via occupational commitment) effects of unmet expectations on job satisfaction were investigated in 397 new Chinese employees. For this purpose, structural equation modeling and bootstrap method was used, and fit indices and Chi square values were compared between partially-mediated and fully-mediated models. Results confirmed the ubiquity of unmet expectations in newcomers, and confirmatory factor analysis verified its latent structure including unmet prestige, unmet health, and unmet progress. Structural equation modeling and Chi square test indicated the partial mediation of occupational commitment on the relationship between unmet expectations and job satisfaction. Testing the mediating effects using the bootstrap method also revealed a significant path from unmet expectations to job satisfaction through occupational commitment. Findings extended those of prior studies and shed light on the protection of occupational commitment to job satisfaction; these findings provide enlightenment on promoting job satisfaction for new employees in their first few days.     

试析我国新《公司法》对公司资本制度的创新与不足

为适应世界各国公司资本制度渐趋缓和化的发展趋势，我国在公司法的第三次修订中对公司资本制度进行了巨大的变革，这些突破和创新，对完善公司的法人治理，促进公司发展，吸引民间资本投资，维护公司、股东、债权人利益，及促进社会主义市场经济健康发展，有着重大的社会意义。但在充分肯定我国公司资本制度创新的同时，也应当正视现行公司资本制度中仍然存在的一些问题。     

Ethical challenges of life story research with ex‐prisoners with intellectual disability

This paper outlines the ethical considerations when engaging in life story research with ex‐prisoners with intellectual disability. Based on a study conducted in Queensland, Australia, the authors explore some of the challenges that have arisen through the lens of principle‐based ethics. The significant disadvantage experienced by ex‐prisoners with intellectual disability warrants further attention by social researchers, and care must be taken not to further harm this group through the research process. Issues pertaining to the broad ethical concepts of integrity, justice, respect for persons and beneficence are examined to identify the degree to which they can guide the actions of the life story researcher. Examples are given as to how the researcher responded to difficulties as they arose and the authors discuss ways forward from a principle‐based approach.     

Avian Influenza Risk Perception and Live Poultry Purchase in Guangzhou, China, 2006

Human H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection is associated with intimate exposure to live poultry. Perceptions of risk can modify behaviors, influencing actual exposure. However, greater hazard is not necessarily followed by perception of greater risk and more precautionary behavior because self-serving cognitive biases modulate precautionary and hazardous behaviors. We examined risk perception associated with avian influenza. A total of 1,550 face-to-face within-household interviews and 1,760 telephone interviews were derived to study avian influenza risk perception and live poultry use in Guangzhou and Hong Kong, respectively. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests assessed bivariate associations and risk distributions, respectively, and fully adjusted multivariate logistic models determined independent risk associations. Relative to Hong Kong, perceived "generalized" risk from buying live poultry (GZ, 58%, 95% confidence interval 55–60% vs. HK, 41%, 39–43%; χ²= 86.95, df  = 1, p < 0.001) and perceived self/family risk from buying ( z  =−2.092, p  = 0.036) were higher in Guangzhou. Higher perceived "generalized" risk was associated with not buying live poultry (OR = 0.65, 0.49–0.85), consistent with the pattern seen in Hong Kong, while perceived higher self/family risk was associated with buying ("likely/very likely/certain" OR = 1.74, 1.18–2.59); no such association was seen in Hong Kong. Multivariate adjustment indicated older age was associated with buying live poultry in Guangzhou (OR = 2.91, 1.36–6.25). Guangzhou respondents perceived greater risk relative to Hong Kong. Buying live poultry was associated with perceptions of less "generalized" risk but more self/family risk. Higher generalized risk was associated with fewer live poultry purchases, suggesting generalized risk may be a useful indicator of precautionary HPAI risk behavior.     

ANT and Politics: Working in and on the World

While it is possible to define ANT in a series of abstract bullet points to do so is to miss most of the point. Instead it explores and theorises the world through rich case studies. This means that, like symbolic interactionism, for ANT words are never enough: you need to practice it. In this paper we work empirically, drawing on an ANT-inflected ethnography of Norwegian salmon farming, and also dialogically. We do this because we want to show that for ANT theory is created, recreated, explored and tinkered with in particular research practices. Indeed, ANT is probably best understood as a sensibility, a set of empirical interferences in the world, a worldly practice, or a lively craft that cherishes the slow processes of knowing rather than immediately seeking results or closure. In particular it is sensible to materiality, relationality, heterogeneity, and process. At its best it understands itself as working in the world to create analytical contexts; but also on the world, to articulate and press particular contexts and their politics. As a part of this it explores the contingencies of power, generating tools to undo the inevitability of that power, while working on the assumption that other and better worlds are possible.