业主公约法律性质之探讨

从成员权、业主团体的概念出发,探讨了业主公约的法律性质,提出了业主公约是业主团体针对现代小 区管理而设制的自治型契约。     

Optimal asset allocation for participating contracts with mortality risk under minimum guarantee

Abstract

We investigate an optimal investment problem of participating insurance contracts with mortality risk under minimum guarantee. The insurer aims to maximize the expected utility of the terminal payoff. Due to its piecewise payoff structure, this optimization problem is a non-concave utility maximization problem. We adopt a concavification technique and a Lagrange dual method to solve the problem and derive the representations of the optimal wealth process and trading strategies. We also carry out some numerical analysis to show how the portfolio insurance constraint impacts the optimal terminal wealth.     

Simultaneous sparse model selection and coefficient estimation for heavy-tailed autoregressive processes

We propose a sparse coefficient estimation and automated model selection procedure for autoregressive processes with heavy-tailed innovations based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood. Under mild moment conditions on the innovation processes, the penalized conditional maximum likelihood estimator satisfies a strong consistency, O_P(N^?1/2) consistency, and the oracle properties, where N is the sample size. We have the freedom in choosing penalty functions based on the weak conditions on them. Two penalty functions, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and smoothly clipped average deviation, are compared. The proposed method provides a distribution-based penalized inference to AR models, which is especially useful when the other estimation methods fail or under perform for AR processes with heavy-tailed innovations [Feigin, Resnick. Pitfalls of fitting autoregressive models for heavy-tailed time series. Extremes. 1999;1:391–422]. A simulation study confirms our theoretical results. At the end, we apply our method to a historical price data of the US Industrial Production Index for consumer goods, and obtain very promising results.     

A stochastically curtailed two-arm randomised phase II trial design for binary outcomes

Randomised controlled trials are considered the gold standard in trial design. However, phase II oncology trials with a binary outcome are often single-arm. Although a number of reasons exist for choosing a single-arm trial, the primary reason is that single-arm designs require fewer participants than their randomised equivalents. Therefore, the development of novel methodology that makes randomised designs more efficient is of value to the trials community. This article introduces a randomised two-arm binary outcome trial design that includes stochastic curtailment (SC), allowing for the possibility of stopping a trial before the final conclusions are known with certainty. In addition to SC, the proposed design involves the use of a randomised block design, which allows investigators to control the number of interim analyses. This approach is compared with existing designs that also use early stopping, through the use of a loss function comprised of a weighted sum of design characteristics. Comparisons are also made using an example from a real trial. The comparisons show that for many possible loss functions, the proposed design is superior to existing designs. Further, the proposed design may be more practical, by allowing a flexible number of interim analyses. One existing design produces superior design realisations when the anticipated response rate is low. However, when using this design, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis is sensitive to misspecification of the null response rate. Therefore, when considering randomised designs in phase II, we recommend the proposed approach be preferred over other sequential designs.     

Disruptions,adjustments and hopes: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on child well-being in five Majority World Countries

Drawing on integrated data from focus groups and diary entries, we explored the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on child well-being for children from five Majority World Countries. We focus on the disruptions the pandemic caused, the adjustments made in response to these, and children's vision of a post-pandemic world. Underlying children's experiences of loss, boredom and concerns about educational progress, was an awareness of systemic inequalities that disadvantaged them or others in their community. Findings have implications on capturing children's voices through introspective and dialogical approaches that transcend cultures and for the development of preventive and responsive interventions during crises.     

近代广东学术因缘——栏目解说

一地的学术传承及学风流变,自有其渊源因由.近代中国的社会变迁虽然天翻地覆,脱胎换骨,学术思想也随着各种东西学新知的大量输入而旧貌换新颜,内里仍然深受固有理路脉络的影响制约.就全国范围而言,历史上广东学术大都处于旁支地位.     

近代"中国哲学"发源

用解一字即作一部文化史的观念检计,"哲学"不仅是"phnosophy"的译名,其发明者西周以之为东洋学问的对应物.而将"哲学"与东洋连接在一起,始作俑者是东京大学,起重要作用的则是加藤弘之和井上哲次郎.后者在前者授意下撰写的<东洋哲学史>,用西洋philosophy系统条理中国古代思想,将"哲学"由他者的学问即西学,变成东洋精神世界的重要组成部分,演变为普遍性的学问.这与此前中村正直、岛田重礼主讲"支那哲学"仍旧依照中国脉络截然不同,背后实有掌控东亚话语权的立意.中国新进人士如王国维等接受哲学,已经将普遍性作为不言而喻的前提.这样的比附后来演变为用西洋系统条理中国思想的天经地义,也引起有识之士的反省.不过,"东洋哲学"与"支那哲学"给东亚尤其是中国提供了重估固有文化的机缘.就此而论,"中国哲学"包括:第一,用哲学概念重装古代思想(一般所谓中国哲学史);第二,"哲学"和"中国哲学"的发生及其来华后的发展演化;第三,借鉴philosophy以丰富和发展中国的思维.寻求"哲学"在中国的历史脉络,应该严格分别一二两项.至于前景如何,后一方面的成效至关重要.     

Random Weighting Estimation for Quantile Processes and Negatively Associated Samples

This article presents new theories of random weighting estimation for quantile processes and negatively associated samples. Under the condition that X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are independent random variables with a common distribution, the consistency for random weighting estimation of quantile processes is rigorously proved. When X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are not independent of each other, random weighting estimation of sample mean is established for negatively associated samples.     

中国农村地区的家庭禀赋与外出务工劳动力回流

中国农村地区家庭禀赋对个人的行为决策有着重要的影响,需要学术界予以更多的关注。为了考察外生性的家庭禀赋对劳动力就业流动的影响,文章通过构建新生代外出务工劳动力和户主子女的回流决策两个计量模型来进行经验论证。分析结果表明,农村劳动力的迁移选择是综合考虑家庭禀赋状况的理性决策,尤其是对于年轻一代的外出劳动力。家庭经济资本的增加会阻碍家庭外出务工成员的回流。外出劳动力回流的概率起初随着家庭人力资本和家庭自然资本的增长而上升,达到一定程度后开始下降。家庭成员只有拥有较为丰富的人力资本,外出务工劳动力才能对家庭社会资本加以充分利用。另外,分析显示年轻一代劳动力和第一代劳动力对家庭社会资本和自然资本的利用是有差异的。