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In this paper, the focus is on sequential analysis of multivariate financial time series with heavy tails. The mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate non linear models are simultaneously monitored by modifying conventional control charts to identify structural changes in the data. The considered target process is a constant conditional correlation model (cf. Bollerslev, 1990), an extended constant conditional correlation model (cf. He and Teräsvirta, 2004), a dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Engle, 2002), or a generalized dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Capiello et al., 2006). For statistical surveillance we use control charts based on residuals. Further, the procedures are constructed for t-distribution. The detection speed of these charts is compared via Monte Carlo simulation. In the empirical study, the procedure with the best performance is applied to log-returns of the stock market indices FTSE and CAC. 相似文献
33.
Wolfgang Ludwig‐Mayerhofer Olaf Behrend Ariadne Sondermann 《Social Policy & Administration》2014,48(5):594-612
This article fills a gap in the existing literature by investigating how public employment service (PES) staff actually deal with their clients under a continental regime of activation. The results reported here are based on interviews both with PES staff and their unemployed clients in Germany. We argue that due to its Bismarckian origins as an insurance‐based system of ‘unemployment protection’, Germany's system of unemployment compensation is attractive not only for the marginalized, but also for core workers. As a result, PES staff deal with clients from very heterogeneous class backgrounds. We demonstrate that social class is a significant factor in client outcomes, and that earlier research has perhaps overemphasized the role of frontline staff as ‘street‐level bureaucrats’. While staff do have considerable power, the result of the encounters between the administration and clients also depends on the capabilities of the clients, which, in turn, are strongly related to social class. 相似文献
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Andrea Maurer Peter Imbusch Dirk Baier Klaus Boehnke Manuela Pötschke Henning Best Annette von Alemann Birgit Riegraf Corinna Onnen-Isemann Juliane Achatz Peter H. Hartmann Nicole Burzan Markus Klein Jens Aderhold Gerd Nollmann Arnold Wilts Mike Steffen Schäfer Christoph Görg Alexandra Manzei Christian Stegbauer Horst Pöttker Günter Endruweit Heiner Meulemann Heinz Sahner Erhard Stölting Wolfgang Lauterbach 《KZfSS K?lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie》2006,58(2):364-406
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Robert O. Hansson Margaret S. Stroebe and Wolfgang Stroebe 《The Journal of social issues》1988,44(3):207-216
A number of important themes and controversies emerged from the preceding papers. These include (a) what kinds of losses lead to grief; (b) how long grief lasts; (c) how to conceptualize "recovery," (d) the nature of "normal" grief; (e) whether bereavement has lasting effects on health; and (f) what characteristics of the individual, the relationship, or the nature of the death create a greater risk for poor outcome of bereavement. Consideration of these issues should help develop more effective strategies for intervention with sufferers, and social policies sensitive to the needs of those at greatest risk. 相似文献
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Protfolio optimization is very sensitive to the forecats of returns and (co-)variances of the underlying assets. This paper
applies a Bayesian vector-autoregression of the asset universe to predict the returns. Further, the co-variance matrix is
forecasted by an Augmented GARCH estimation of the most volatile principle components of the return series. As an empirical
illustration, the daily stock returns of the German stocks index DAX have been used to calculate some well-known mean-variance
portfolios. Back-testing is used to evaluate the performance. The approach seems to be promising. 相似文献
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Angelika Dietrich Hermann Frank Wolfgang H. Güttel Rupert Hasenzagl 《Gruppendynamik und Organisationsberatung》2005,36(3):271-284
The spark of small groups: An analysis of the developmental logic and dynamics of a consultancy process In the recent past large group interventions have gained increased attention in the systemic consulting literature. In contrast to this tendency, this paper focuses on the significance and effectiveness of small group interventions in business consultancy.Based on a qualitative analysis of a consultancy process, the effectiveness of small group change processes is documented here: Unlike large groups, small groups not only are far more likely to succeed in developing structures which differ from the existing organizational structures, they moreover are much more likely to develop a strong identity which helps them generate the power necessary for change. Especially in conflict situations and in situations where the pressures that are being put on an organization are increasing, small groups are more likely to maintain their identity, another crucial prerequisite for the initiation of a change process.The paper shows that consultancy systems, which differ in structure from the customer organization, are apt to serve as incubators for the development of strong groups within an organization. These small groups are able to push for organizational changes using conflicts process. 相似文献