The Emergence of a Community-based Social Assistance Programme in Urban China

To many people, the problem of poverty in China was confined mainly to the rural areas, and the situation of urban poverty was regarded as insignificant. Yet in fact, market-orientated economic reforms have created an urban underclass, made up of poorly paid state workers, the unemployed, and migrants from the countryside. In attempting to respond to the mounting needs of the urban poor, the Chinese government has introduced a means-tested social assistance programme in the cities since the mid-1990s. This paper describes the basic philosophy, structure and operation of this programme, and provides a general assessment of its functions and shortcomings.     

Integrated services in Australian early childhood education and care: what can we learn from our past?

Recent Australian interest in the integration of early childhood services is largely informed by international research and policy developments, particularly from the United Kingdom. Service integration is widely recognised as an effective means of holistically meeting the needs of children and families and ameliorating disadvantage. What is less well known is that Australia has a history of integrated early childhood services. This paper focuses on three points in 20th century Australia when advocacy for integrated early childhood service provision was evident: post‐World War I when the first Mother and Baby Welfare Clinic was established; during the late 1930s to mid 1940s with the advent of the Lady Gowrie Centres; and in the 1970s when several reports recommended the integration and co‐ordination of early years services. Attending to this history acknowledges this innovative Australian work, and provides potentially valuable, and somewhat cautionary, lessons for contemporary advocacy for integrated early childhood services.     

Quality of Life of Poor People Living in Remote Areas in Hong Kong

Based on three surveys carried out for studying living conditions of youth, women and elderly living in six remote areas (Tuen Mun, Yuen Long, Tin Shui Wai, Sheung Shui, Fan Ling and Tai Po) in the New Territories of Hong Kong, this paper reports the poverty and social exclusion of these three groups of people. The quality of life of youth, women and elderly is adversely affected by limited job opportunities, high cost of travel for employment, and poor neighbourhoods in the community. However, perceptions of reasons for their problems are different for the three groups, due to differences in bonding and bridging social capital they have, as well as the differences in perceptions on social exclusion and discrimination directed upon them.     

Smoothing Spline Estimation for Partially Linear Single-index Models

In this article, the partially linear single-index models are discussed based on smoothing spline and average derivative estimation method. This proposed technique consists of two stages: one is to estimate the vector parameter in the linear part using the smoothing cubic spline method, simultaneously, obtaining the estimator of unknown single-index function; the other is to estimate the single-index coefficients in the single-index part by the using average derivative estimator procedure. Some simulated and real examples are presented to illustrate the performance of this method.     

An Approximate Bayesian Algorithm for Combining Forecasts*

In this paper we propose a consensus forecasting method based on a convex combination of individual forecast densities. The exact Bayesian updating of the convex combination weights is very complex and practically prohibitive. We propose a simple sequential updating alternative method based on function approximation. Several examples illustrate the method.     

有信息冲击、无信息冲击与波动率非对称性

本文将金融市场的冲击(innovations)分成有信息冲击和无信息冲击,构建了一种新的非对称GARCH类模型,区间均值GARCH模型(sectional mean GARCH,SM-GARCH).在中国股票市场的实证分析中发现:SM-GARCH模型能够更好地捕捉波动率特征和预测波动率;条件均值预测误差用于描述新到来的冲击对条件方差的影响,所提供的信息是有限的,在无信息冲击的情况下可以忽略它在波动率预测中的作用.     

银行贷款、商业信用融资及我国上市公司的公司治理

本文讨论了银行贷款以及商业信用融资对我国上市公司公司治理的影响.通过对1995到2000年间上市公司CEO更换的研究,我们得到两个结论:第一,在经营业绩为负的公司中,银行贷款与强制性CEO更换存在负向关系,而商业信用融资与强制性CEO更换存在正向关系;第二,在盈利能力一般的公司中,商业信用融资与强制性CEO更换仍为正向关系,但银行贷款与强制性CEO更换却不存在明显的关系.以上结果表明,商业信用融资在CEO强制性更换中起到了积极的作用,改善了上市公司的公司治理,而银行贷款却没有起到相应的作用,甚至有负面的作用.