Predicting outcomes: Sports and stocks

Many gamblers and most fans, players, and coaches offer causal explanations for long runs of good or bad performance in sports and financial analysts are quick to offer explanations for the daily performance of the stock market. The records of professional basketball and baseball teams and the Dow Jones daily closing average for a ten year period were evaluated for trends (streaks). The records of teams were also evaluated to assess whether the record against opponents, the home court or home field advantage, and—for baseball teams—the record of the winning and losing pitcher (excluding the current game) predicted the outcome of individual games. Recent performance is, at best, a very weak predictor of current performance and the three best predictors for baseball (pitching, home field, and record against opponent) together accounted for only 1.7% of the variance in the outcomes of individual games. We overestimate our ability to predict. This overconfidence is likely to play a role in maintaining gambling behaviors.     

Rule enforcement in a public setting: The case of basketball officiating

This participant observation study examines some of the definitional and dramaturgical work performed by basketball officials attempting to enforce formal rules in the presence of audiences (e.g., spectators, coaches, players and fellow officials). Our analysis begins with the discovery that officiating requires participation in both a real world of physical events and objects, and a social world of subjective identifications. Second, we explore the contexts of legitimation by which decisions are justified. Third, we identify dramaturgical strategies used by officials to enhance legitimacy in the face of problematic decisions. Finally, we consider the assumptions officials make about the character of their work. The paper concludes with a discussion of indexical and interpretive features of organizational and bureaucratic use of formal rules, including the case of basketball officiating.An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Sociological Society, Knoxville, Tennessee, March, 1980. We would like to thank Michael Hughes and James Michaels for abetting suggestions and comments. The authors share equal responsibility for the paper; the names have been listed alphabetically.     

Understanding men's health and illness: a gender-relations approach to policy, research, and practice

Men's health has emerged as an important public concern that may require new kinds of healthcare interventions and increased resources. Considerable uncertainty and confusion surround prevailing understandings of men's health, particularly those generated by media debate and public policy, and health research has often operated on oversimplified assumptions about men and masculinity. A more useful way of understanding men's health is to adopt a gender-relations approach. This means examining health concerns in the context of men's and women's interactions with each other, and their positions in the larger, multidimensional structure of gender relations. Such an approach raises the issue of differences among men, which is a key issue in recent research on masculinity and an important health issue. The gender-relations approach offers new ways of addressing practical issues of healthcare for men in college environments.     

Ethnic variations in the relationship between income and fertility

The effects of husband'spotential andrelative incomes on completed fertility, as well as their effects on certain parity progression probabilities, are examined within samples of Anglos, Blacks and Mexican Americans. Relationships are estimated using data from the one-percent 1960 and 1970 U.S. Public Use Samples. The results reveal different patterns of relationship by ethnicity between the measures of income and the measures of fertility. The effects on completed fertility of the income measures are positive for Anglos and negative for Blacks, while in the case of Mexican Americans the effect ofpotential income is negative and that ofrelative income is positive. Income effects on the parity progression probabilities are similar in pattern to those from the analyses using completed fertility, although somewhat different patterns tend to appear at different birth orders, especially among Anglos.     

Estimating the stability of census-based racial/ethnic classifications: the case of Brazil

This study presents a method of estimating the degree to which people change their racial/ethnic identity from one census enumeration to another. The technique is applied to the classification of skin colour in Brazil (white, black, brown, yellow). For the period 1950-80, the findings show a deficit of 38 per cent in the black category and a gain of 34 per cent in the brown category, suggesting that a large proportion of individuals who declared themselves black in 1950 reclassified themselves as brown in 1980. Estimates for 1980-90, adjusted for the effects of international migration, reveal a similar pattern, although the magnitude of colour reclassification may have declined somewhat during the 1980s. Procedures to determine the stability of racial/ethnic identity produce data useful to recent policy initiatives that rely on demographic censuses to measure changes in the status of minority groups in less developed countries.     

A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory‐confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS‐CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human‐to‐human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS‐CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human‐to‐human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS‐CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.     

Corporate Diversification,Information Asymmetry and Insider Trading

The literature suggests that corporate diversification destroys firm value. This value destruction is usually considered to be a consequence of managers' pursuing diversification strategies to benefit themselves rather than to increase firm value. This paper provides evidence that casts doubt on this agency theory‐based explanation for corporate diversification. Evidence based on insider trading suggests that managers themselves consider their diversification strategies to be value‐increasing. Specifically, it is documented that corporate insiders (directors) purchase more of their firms' shares in the open market when corporate diversification is high. Moreover, insiders purchase more when the level of diversification discount is high, suggesting that they disagree with outside investors' undervaluation due to diversification. It is also found that the market reaction to insiders' purchases is positively related to corporate diversification. This result suggests that outsiders consider the amount of favourable information contained in insiders' purchases to increase with the extent of corporate diversification.