Evaluating utility conservation programs: The BPA plan

This paper summarizes a detailed plan for evaluation of the residential energy conservation programs offered by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The major purpose of the evaluation is to determine the energy savings attributable to the programs and to identify differences between program participants and nonparticipants. The focus of this paper is on the sampling issues associated with reliable estimates of energy savings. The methodology attempts to correct for the self-selection bias likely to occur in conservation program evaluation by using intentional nonrandom sampling. In addition, the paper suggests a variety of analytical approaches to analyzing the data with respect to energy savings.The proposed design, using four different groups to estimate program effects, is a comprehensive endeavor. This is appropriate for BPA because of the substantial investment it is making in conservation. However, the design is flexible and allows for use offewer groups to reduce evaluation costs.     

合宪性审查机制建设的40年

回顾我国1982年现行宪法生效以后过去36年中宪法实施监督机构和合宪性审查机制建立的过程、学界的主流观点以及实践中有代表和影响性的案例,可以看到我国的合宪性审查机制的建立在法理上和实践中经历了“机构优先”“司法审查”“违宪审查”和“合宪性审查”几个不同的发展阶段,其中,每一个阶段在学理和实践中都形成了主流性的观点和做法.笔者认为,只有依据宪法规定享有监督宪法实施职责的全国人大及其常委会在监督宪法实施方面的重要实践才真正具有合宪性审查的制度功能.党的十九大提出“加强宪法实施和监督,推进合宪性审查工作,维护宪法权威”的要求,是在总结全国人大及其常委会过去在监督宪法实施方面的经验和教训基础上提出的.十三届全国人大一次会议审议通过的《中华人民共和国宪法修正案》将全国人大法律委员会更名为全国人大宪法和法律委员会正是我国合完性审查机制建立和健全的必然要求,全国人大宪法和法律委员会将会在协助全国人大及其常委会监督宪法实施、推进合宪性审查工作方面发挥极其重要的作用.     

Learning from adversity: diary of a medical manager

This article is one physician's account of his experiences in managing a large multispecialty group practice. While he was able to accomplish much in his tenure during the latter half of the 1980s, it was, on balance, a negative experience. He describes both the high and the low points of the period and assesses how both contributed to his eventual downfall. While personal, the account has important implications for others involved in the rapidly changing, personally rewarding, and eminently challenging health car system in which physician executives work.     

银农关系与创业农户的信贷可得性

基于江苏省2015年633户创业农户的调查数据,运用需求可观察的双变量Probit模型对银农关系深度、广度和密度与创业农户正规信贷可得性之间的内在机制进行了分析。结果显示：关系深度中的信用社社员和信用户身份对创业农户正规信贷可得性存在显著的正向作用,关系密度中的银农距离和拖欠款经历则存在显著的负向作用,关系广度在竞争度低的农村信贷市场上负向作用不显著。此外,对于个体户和企业形式的创业项目来说,大部分金融机构仍将能否提供抵押物作为是否放贷的主要依据,而增加地方金融资源供给、引入市场竞争有助于提高创业农户获得正规贷款的概率。     

The attributable estimand: A new approach to account for intercurrent events

The term “intercurrent events” has recently been used to describe events in clinical trials that may complicate the definition and calculation of the treatment effect estimand. This paper focuses on the use of an attributable estimand to address intercurrent events. Those events that are considered to be adversely related to randomized treatment (eg, discontinuation due to adverse events or lack of efficacy) are considered attributable and handled with a composite estimand strategy, while a hypothetical estimand strategy is used for intercurrent events not considered to be related to randomized treatment (eg, unrelated adverse events). We explore several options for how to implement this approach and compare them to hypothetical “efficacy” and treatment policy estimand strategies through a series of simulation studies whose design is inspired by recent trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we illustrate through an analysis of a recently completed COPD trial.     

Defining and measuring patient satisfaction with medical care

This paper describes the development of Form II of the Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ), a self-administered survey instrument designed for use in general population studies. The PSQ contains 55 Likert-type items that measure attitudes toward the more salient characteristics of doctors and medical care services (technical and interpersonal skills of providers, waiting time for appointments, office waits, emergency care, costs of care, insurance coverage, availability of hospitals, and other resources) and satisfaction with care in general. Scales are balanced to control for acquiescent response set. Scoring rules for 18 multi-item subscales and eight global scales were standardized following replication of item analyses in four field tests. Internal-consistency and test-retest estimates indicate satisfactory reliability for studies involving group comparisons. The PSQ well represents the content of characteristics of providers and services described most often in the literature and in response to open-ended questions. Empirical tests of validity have also produced generally favorable results.     

Planning future raw material supply

The emphasis of this article is on the need to pay greater attention to the longer-term. It deals particularly with the potential problems and opportunities surrounding the supply of key raw materials. A key question is the potential availability of certain new materials given what are now effectively uneconomic prices to the producer. The author argues for much closer liaison and involvement of Europe organizations in mining (e.g.) and points to some areas of considerable potential.