THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE IN HOME‐BASED FAMILY THERAPY: IS IT PREDICTIVE OF OUTCOME?

This study examined the association between the therapeutic alliance in family therapy and changes in symptom distress, interpersonal relationships, and family coping. The participants (N = 81) were members of low socioeconomic status families referred to a university clinic for in-home family therapy. Participants completed the Outcome Questionnaire, Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation, and the Family Therapy Alliance questionnaires. Regression analyses revealed that the therapeutic alliance explained 19% of the variance in symptom distress changes for mother, 55% for fathers, and 39% for adolescents. The implications of these findings for practicing and researching family therapy are presented.     

An Empirical Test of the Relative Validity of Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk

This article investigates how accurately experts (underwriters) and lay persons (university students) judge the risks posed by life-threatening events Only one prior study (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1985) has previously investigated the veracity of expert versus lay judgments of the magnitude of risk. In that study, a heterogeneous grouping of 15 experts was found to judge, using marginal estimations, a variety of risks as closer to the true annual frequencies of death than convenience samples of the lay population. In this study, we use a larger, homogenous sample of experts performing an ecologically valid task. We also ask our respondents to assess frequencies and relative frequencies directly, rather than ask for a "risk" estimate--a response mode subject to possible qualitative attributions-as was done in the Slovic et al. study. Although we find that the experts outperformed lay persons on a number of measures, the differences are small, and both groups showed similar global biases in terms of: (1) overestimating the likelihood of dying from a condition (marginal probability) and of dying from a condition given that it happens to you (conditional probability), and (2) underestimating the ratios of marginal and conditional likelihoods between pairs of potentially lethal events. In spite of these scaling problems, both groups showed quite good performance in ordering the lethal events in terms of marginal and conditional likelihoods. We discuss the nature of expertise using a framework developed by Bolger and Wright (1994), and consider whether the commonsense assumption of the superiority of expert risk assessors in making magnitude judgments of risk is, in fact, sensible.     

语言教学的“粗料输入”

在语言教学中 ,教师经常面对的一项选择是如何为学习者安排难度适当 ,份量适中的语言材料。作者认为 ,借助克拉申的语言输入 -输出假设不妨为一个行之有效的方法。语言教学中的粗料输入在内化学习者语言知识、提高语言能力方面能起到独到的作用     

深港合作的回顾与前瞻

本文回顾深港合作２０ 年的历程及各时期的特点，反省和预测深港合作的基本路向。深圳引进外资、发展外向型经济与香港依托祖国内地开展国际竞争的互动趋势， 将促使两地合作在不改变各自体制属性的基础上，迈上高新科技产业合作为先导的新台阶。     

青年知识分子思想政治倾向的基本特征

青年知识分子思想政治倾向的基本特征主要表现在六个方面:一是青年知识分子作为思想活跃的一个社会群体,其思想政治倾向具有明显的时代性特征；二是青年知识分子随着年龄的不断增长、知识积累的不断完备及社会实践经验的不断丰富,其思想政治倾向也逐渐从不成熟到成熟、从不稳定到逐渐稳定,表现出鲜明的阶段性；三是成长、成熟于日益开放时代的青年知识分子,深受开放潮流的浸润,从而使其思想政治倾向具有明显的开放性特征；四是由于青年知识分子思想政治倾向形成时在主观上受着个人经历、认识水平和智能结构的限制,客观上又受历史时代、职业状况、经济状况、社会环境以及年龄等制约,因而必然表现出多样性特征；五是由于青年知识分子在生理上正处于青年时期,他们经常在日常生活中呈现出兴奋与苦闷、激动与烦恼、紧张与松懈等相互矛盾的心理状态,其思想政治倾向也由于个人人生得失、社会发展变革、重大社会事件和重要人物言行的影响而经常发生变动,因而具有鲜明的变动性特征；六是处于不稳定、不平衡状态之中的青年知识分子的思想政治倾向,可能向积极方向发展,也可能向消极方向发展。但是,思想政治倾向发展变化的方向是可以干预和引导的,即青年知识分子的思想政治倾向具有可塑性。     

实行柔性监管与构建和谐社会——泉州工商机关深化行政指导实践的追踪调研报告

泉州工商行政机关不断探索创新,在行政指导实践中取得明显成效,形成更多经验。为此追踪考察了泉州工商行政机关深入开展行政指导的基本做法,总结了泉州工商行政机关深入开展行政指导的成效和经验,就其继续深化工商行政指导实践提出若干对策建议。     

香港回归10年的经济轨迹透析

香港特别行政区实施的“一国两制”政策史无先例。香港回归10年,尽管历经多次经济波折和政治纷争,但香港的繁荣和稳定有目共睹,香港回归10年,与内地的经贸关系得到空前的加强,而且继续维系着全球最自由经济体的地位;香港经济目前仍面临着一些深层次的问题未能得到解决,未来发展还存在着不确定因素。在香港回归10周年之际,本刊分两期约请教育部省属高校人文社会科学重点研究基地深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心数位教授撰写文章,本期刊载其中的四篇,就有关问题进行探讨,以期引起关于香港未来发展问题的进一步关注。     

注氮ZnO:Mg薄膜的热稳定性研究

利用溶胶凝胶方法在石英玻璃衬底上制备了ZnO:Mg薄膜,将能量56 keV、剂量1×1017ions/cm2的N离子注入到薄膜中.离子注入后,将样品在500-900℃的氮气中退火,利用X射线衍射(XRD)和光吸收研究了薄膜中缺陷的恢复过程.结果显示,离子注入层在600-900℃的退火过程中分解和蒸发现象明显,这个结果对利用离子注入技术制备p型ZnO有很重要的意义.     

Preaching to the converted: conversion language and the constitution of the TV evangelical community

A paradox is noted in the presentation of conversion in TV evangelism; this is that although the necessity of being converted is a common theme it is clear that the evangelists are aware that their audience is already converted. An attempt is made to resolve the paradox by showing how TV evangelists use conversion language as rhetoric to legitimate their role and the rationality of the organisation which they represent. It is further shown how this legitimation is itself made possible through another use of conversion language which creates a sense of moral community embracing evangelists, organisation and audience as copartners in the shared project of conversion. Finally, it is shown how the presentation of TV evangelism as the central ritual of a moral community generates a further conversion rhetoric which depicts the community as both exclusive of and yet open to non-members; a contradiction which is resolved through the establishment of distinctive roles within the community related to the activity of winning converts.