中国人口发展演变趋势的分形分析

文章采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S法,对中国人口总数的发展演变特征进行实证分析。结果显示,中国人口发展演变满足赫斯特律,具有明显的分形特征,人口增长在其演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,人口总数将继续持续增长,这种研究结论与中国人口发展实际情况基本一致。     

中国共产党青年工作的百年经验、时代任务与方法创新

建党百年来,我们党始终坚持马克思主义在青年工作中的指导地位、遵循党管青年原则、固守青年工作政治属性、照顾青年特点,并形成了关于青年具有自觉积极性、是社会发展生力军与需要被引导的科学认识,积累了丰富的青年工作有益经验——"四一、一三"经验。进入新时代,在党的青年工作具体使命任务逐渐转向引领青年服务乡村振兴新布局、帮助青年投身科技创新新领域、号召青年参与构建人类命运共同体、组织青年坚守意识形态新阵地和鼓励青年参与打造社会治理新格局的现实情况下,有必要创新"乡村‘X’+‘Y’""科技‘趣点’模拟+""关联性数字立体化+""积分式激励+""移动化新智能+"等五类青年工作法,以引领青年为实现社会主义现代化强国而努力奋斗。     

转型期中国西部城市定位选择——遵义市红花岗区“十三五”城市发展定位选择案例分析

中国中小城市存在城市定位特色缺失及个性不强的问题。通过对遵义市红花岗区城市定位选择的案例研究发现,政治因素、资源禀赋、区域文化、竞争环境、发展趋势影响城市的定位选择。西部小城市定位不准的主要原因是财政困难、产业缺乏、城市化率低、传统城市经营方式不可持续。发展经济、解决财政问题是城市政府的首要选择,城市经济发展考核指标及城市政府的现实需求对城市定位选择具有直接影响。现有城市定位理论对中国西部中小城市的定位指导有局限性。     

ENTERTAINING MALTHUS: BREAD,CIRCUSES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Motivated by the basic adage that man does not live by bread alone, we offer a theory of historical economic growth and population dynamics where human beings need food to survive, but enjoy other things, too. Our model imposes a Malthusian constraint on food, but introduces a second good to the analysis that affects living standards without affecting population growth. We show that technological change does a good job explaining historical consumption patterns and population dynamics, including the Neolithic Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the Great Divergence. Our theory stands in contrast to models that assume a single composite good and a Malthusian constraint. These models generate negligible growth prior to the Industrial Revolution. However, recent revisions to historical data show that historical living standards—though obviously much lower than today's—varied over time and space much more than previously thought. These revisions include updates to Maddison's dataset, which served as the basis for many papers taking long‐run stagnation as a point of departure. This new evidence suggests that the assumption of long‐run stagnation is problematic. Our model shows that when we give theoretical accounting of these new observations the Industrial Revolution is much less puzzling. (JEL B10, I31, J1, N1, O30)     

刑事证人保护制度正当化探析

刑事诉讼中证人是除当事人以外了解案件情况并向公安司法机关作证的诉讼参与人,而司法实践中证人拒绝作证现象相当普遍。为解决这一司法难题,本文运用比较方法,在借鉴国外经验的基础上,提出设立专门保护机构、完善人身保护措施、建立预防机制等构想。     

我国企业产业升级换代面临的人力资源问题浅析

目前,我国东部发达地区均提出了企业升级换代的诉求,并在政策上有所鼓励。然而,企业升级换代的步伐缓慢,效果不能令人满意。本文分析了我国企业升级换代面临的人力资源瓶颈及其原因,并对解决企业升级换代中面临的人力资源问题提出了政策建议。     

国内后现代主义文学思潮研究的学术史反思

在后现代主义经由经典化走向历史,和后现代主义研究经由普泛化走向体制化的当下,国内后现代主义文学思潮研究在问题意识与现实关怀、"现代"与"后现代"及"解构"与"建构"关系的处理等方面存在倾向性问题.值得作适当的学术史清理.     

东亚与拉美经济增长的动力机制比较——基于资本积累的视角

20世纪中叶,东亚和拉美基本处于同等发展水平.短短几十年过去了,一些东亚国家(地区)已跻身新兴工业化国家行列,被认为创造了"东亚奇迹";而多数拉美国家因债务危机而陷入困境.基于东亚和拉美在经济发展上的巨大差距,本文从资本积累的视角对东亚和拉美经济增长的动力机制进行比较,得到一些有益的结论供宏观决策者参考.     

三峡地区的家畜起源与传播

从考古发现的实物材料上,可以认为三峡地区是我国重要的家畜起源地之一。从家畜动物的传播交流上讲,三峡地区既有传播到外区域的家畜,也有从外区域输入的家畜。三峡地区家畜起源与传播的研究,不仅是认识三峡区域文化的重要方面,同时,也为整体研究我国家畜史与经济发展提供着坚实的基础性材料。     

Understanding and Using Mediators and Moderators

Mediation and moderation are two theories for refining and understanding a causal relationship. Empirical investigation of mediators and moderators requires an integrated research design rather than the data analyses driven approach often seen in the literature. This paper described the conceptual foundation, research design, data analysis, as well as inferences involved in a mediation and/or moderation investigation in both experimental and non-experimental (i.e., correlational) contexts. The essential distinctions between the investigation of mediators and moderators were summarized and juxtaposed in an example of a causal relationship between test difficulty and test anxiety. In addition, the more elaborate models, moderated mediation and mediated moderation, the use of structural equation models, and the problems with model misspecification were discussed conceptually.