经济周期波动、危机与管控实践及理论再研究——科学管控观与目前中国克服危机的途径及依据

资本经济周期性危机的社会经济根源始终是相对需求不足,虽然引爆的具体原因不同。世界经济一体化发展的结果使危机的同步性提高,因此高贸易依存度使中国不可能独善其身。经济周期包括危机、萧条、复苏、高涨四个一般阶段,而危机阶段又包括九个段落,并与金融危机密切相关。认识危机、认识中国自身优劣,才能克服危机。但是,克服危机还需要马克思主义学派的正确理论指导,需要基于中国实践选择突破口和经济杠杆。     

图画见精神——论唐代咏画诗中马、鹰、松的文化蕴涵

在唐人咏画的诗歌中,对马、鹰、松等绘画作品表现出特别的感情.一方面,这是盛及唐代的养马乘骑及蓄养鹰犬之风的反映.另一方面,盛唐人从骏马和苍鹰的文化蕴涵中发现了最适于他们抒发激越情感的内客.他们常借助咏叹画家的鹰、马作品,歌唱自己的宏伟理想,展示自己的豪迈胸怀.而中晚唐诗人咏画松的热情更高一些,他们已不再局限于盛唐时期注重对画面中松树的各式逼真形态的摹写,太多都是寄意于画外,从松树的画中形态联想到其画外精神,将画松的文化蕴涵与士子们的人格品性相照应.唐人的这些咏画诗篇,既反映了当时画界的繁盛状况,也借以展示了诗人的精神寄托.这种寄托不仅是承继发扬了我国长期以来赋予在马、鹰、松等物象上的文化蕴涵,更主要的是透过不同时期诗人的吟咏爱好及审美取向,我们可以看到不同时代士人的精神崇尚.     

Estimation in capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data

For capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data, a set of estimating equations is constructed to estimate population size and relevant parameters. These estimating equations can be solved by an algorithm similar to the EM algorithm. The proposed method is also applicable to the situation when covariates with no measurement errors have missing data. Simulation studies are used to assess the performance of the proposed estimator. The estimator is also applied to a capture–recapture experiment on the bird species Prinia flaviventris in Hong Kong. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 645–658; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

从"遣有"到"即有"——论玄言诗转入山水诗的内在理路

玄言诗的产生与作为具体物象的山水有内在联系,但玄言诗所体现的责无贱有思想又隐含着理论上的危机和实际操作的困难.针对"遣有"和"涉无"的矛盾,孙绰提出了"泯色空以合迹,忽即有而得玄"的解决之道,一方面实现了由被动"遣有"到了主动"即有"的审美态度的转变,另一方面,直觉观物方式也解决了"即有"如何"得玄"的审美体验问题,由此形成了玄言诗转入山水诗的契机.山水诗的出现是玄学发展的必然结果,由玄言诗转入山水诗实际上体现了体玄者由外部脱落山水形相到从主观内心超越山水形相思路的转变.     

大庆文化形态之分析

大庆市是一个多民族地区,其文化主要有三种形态:一是土著文化,即草原文化;二是移民文化,即农耕文化;三是工业文化,即近现代文化.在和谐社会建设中,大庆市在发挥工业文化主导作用的同时,要重视农耕文化,尤其要研究和重视草原文化的民族特性,从蒙古族所处的地理环境、资源条件、历史文化、民族特点等实际出发,依托和借助于地域的和民族的载体与形式,使草原文化不仅在传承中发展,也能在与农耕文化、工业文化的交融中更新.     

A socio-ecological perspective of urban green networks: the Stockholm case

Landscape fragmentation threatens habitats, biodiversity and other ecosystem services. In tackling this threat, the dynamic processes of social-ecological systems should be recognised and understood. Although network analysis based on graph theory has been recognised as an efficient way of spatially understanding landscape or habitat connectivity, only few studies have offered specific approaches or suggestions for integrating detailed social-ecological values into geographical distributions. As a contribution to bridging this gap, this paper introduces a social-ecological network model for the issue of landscape or habitat fragmentation applied to the case of Stockholm, Sweden. Graph theory was used in combination with sociotope and biotope maps for simple visualisation of network situations in two-dimensional maps. The European crested tit (Lophophanes cristatus), European common toad (Bufo bufo) and human beings were selected as indicator species, based on a landscape ecology analysis in Stockholm Municipality in 2009. Slope, land use and human disturbance maps were assessed in order to decide cost values of travelling from node to node. Lease-cost-path accumulation was used to create ideal reference maps of green networks. Three separate maps were then developed for suggesting efficient routes for three indicators in city scale that mainly connect from the Royal National City Park to the other parts of the city. The model in Hjorthagen neighbourhood to highlight two practical paths that link this fragmented community to its neighbouring park areas. Findings make it possible to address two scales of network improvement strategies, namely first for the city-scale green network that connects geographical habitats (nodes) and the regional green wedges of the city, and the second that of neighbourhood links between habitats in detailed layers of green networks. Strategic improvement potentials are presented based on ideal reference maps of green networks correspondingly.     

Complete moment convergence of widely orthant dependent random variables

It is known that the dependence structure of widely orthant dependent (WOD) random variables is weaker than those of negatively associated (NA) random variables, negatively superadditive dependent (NSD) random variables, negatively orthant dependent (NOD) random variables, and extended negatively dependent (END) random variables. In this article, the results of complete moment convergence and complete convergence are presented for WOD sequence under the same moment conditions as independent sequence in classical result (Chow 1988 Chow, Y. (1988). On the rate of moment convergence of sample sums and extremes. Bull. Inst. Math. Acad. Sin. 16(3):177–201. [Google Scholar]).     

A Systems Approach to Social Entrepreneurship

Currently, disabilities organizations are increasingly being challenged by the requirement for individualized service, expectations to show personal outcomes, and the need to base their services on evidence-based practices. Social entrepreneurship (SE) is being put forward as an innovative approach for dealing with these challenges. This article presents a systems approach to SE based on a program logic model. This model identifies the input factors (a strong social vision, exploiting opportunities, maximizing resources), throughput strategies (entrepreneurial orientation, critical thinking skills, networking, capacity building), and outcome components (improving people’s lives, community-building, improving society) of SE at the micro, meso, and macro level. Also, the importance of planning for contextual changes as a social entrepreneur is discussed. The article concludes with presenting three inspiring practices regarding SE in the field of disabilities organizations.     

货币化红利的负债转化、“伪货币化”与当前通货膨胀走势

随着经济结构的变化,我国经济货币化进程已经结束,货币化红利已经开始转化为负债.这意味着同样的总量货币政策,在当前要比以往带来更大的通货膨胀压力.接下来我们讨论了这种转化的原因和影响,以及经济货币化与货币流通速度的关系.由于短期心理和周期性因素的影响,我们发现在危机期间存在“伪货币化”现象,并论证了通货膨胀在危机期间和之后的“V”型反转态势.这些分析意味着,我国2009-2010年货币超发带来的通货膨胀压力还远没有释放完毕,2011年以后我们仍将面临较大的通货膨胀压力.     

大学英语框架下的ESP课程实践:“土建英语”为例

基于国内外ESP课程研究的理论梳理,以"土建英语"课程为例探讨大学英语体系内ESP课程实施中的课程需求分析、课程设置、教材、师资、教学方法及教学反馈等系列问题,为相关课程研究提供新视角,并为该领域的后续研究提出思考方向.