重庆市“伞型”经济发展战略研究

分析“伞型”经济发展战略的内涵及实施之必要性,提出重庆直辖市实施战略的八大策略,并强调金融对区域主导产业成长的重要作用。     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

Immigration and ethnic origin: the effect of demographic attributes on earnings of Israeli men and women

"The present article examines the separate effects of ethnicity and immigration on earnings by studying a sample of Israeli workers. The results indicate that immigrant status constitutes a major handicap in the Israeli labor market. Ethnicity, on the other hand, plays a minor role in the earnings determination process. The consequences of these results for labor market policies are discussed."     

Major obstacles to control of irregular migrations: prerequisites to policy

This paper examines 3 basic obstacles thwarting all attempts to reduce irregular migration. The 1st, rather well known and analyzed, underscores the dependency of all regulation of migratory flows on the system of economic and political relations between developed and developing countries. The 2nd obstacle resides in the persistance and growth of subsequent dependent irregular migration. This obstacle also reveals the relative autonomy of population movements compared with the employment situation in the labor market. The 3rd generally ignored obstacle is the role played by migration itself, particularly the discriminatory status of foreign workers in the labor market, in producing irregular migration.     

Perceived morbidity, utilisation of health services and factors affecting it in a rural area

A survey of perceived morbidity was carried out in rural population in eight villages and four wards of Saoner town, covering a total population of 8,876. The nature of illness was assessed by weekly visits to the families. History regarding treatment taken for disease and its source was taken. The overall incidence of perceived morbidity was 176.35 spells of sickness per 1000 population per month. Health care agency was contacted for 36.7 per cent spells of sickness. Utilisation of health services was found to be affected significantly by factors like age (chi 2 = 138.36), literacy (chi 2 = 14.123), type of occupation (chi 2 = 433.74), nature of illness (chi 2 = 83.578) and accessibility of health services. A health behaviour model of the population has also been discussed in this paper.     

On some characteristics of China's population--analysis of the ten percent sampling tabulation of the 1982 third national population census

Advance results from the 1982 census of China are presented based on a 10 percent sample. Sections are included on age distribution, centenarians, marriage patterns, educational status, and the labor force. Several characteristics of China's population are described in this article, based on a 10% sampling tabulation of the production teams and resident groups of the whole country. Data are included for 100,380,000 people. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is 33.60%, which marks a decline from figures in the 1964 census (40%). This decline is attributed to family planning and population control efforts. The median age is 22.91 years, which is 2.71 years older than that in the 1964 census. The % of the population aged 15-64 rose from 55.7% in 1964 to 61.5%. The dependency ratio dropped from 79.4% (1964) to 62.6%. There were 3,765 centenarians as of July, 1982; the overwhelming majority live in villages, and most (94.77%) are illiterate or semiliterate. The number of female centenarians is 2.4 times that of males. Marriages are comparatively stable in China. 63.6% of the population aged 15 and over are married, and .59% are divorced. The % of the population remaining single after age 50 is .21% for females, 2.97% for males. The average 1st marriage age is 22.80 years for females and 25.49 years for males. 60.35% of the people have had primary education or above; .44% are college graduates. In 1964, 33.58% of the population illiterate or semiliterate. At present, among people aged 12 and over, 31.90% are illiterate or semiliterate. The rural illiteracy rate is more than twice the urban rate. 51.94% of the total population is employed. Of these, 92.08% are engaged in manual labor. Males exceed females in all professions and occupations. The median age of the employed population is 30.84 years. The level of education among the employed is relatively low: 28.26% are illiterate or semiliterate, and 34.35% have had primary education only.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

One-dimensional optimal bounded-shape partitions for Schur convex sum objective functions

Consider the problem of partitioning n nonnegative numbers into p parts, where part i can be assigned n_i numbers with n_i lying in a given range. The goal is to maximize a Schur convex function F whose ith argument is the sum of numbers assigned to part i. The shape of a partition is the vector consisting of the sizes of its parts, further, a shape (without referring to a particular partition) is a vector of nonnegative integers (n₁,..., n_p) which sum to n. A partition is called size-consecutive if there is a ranking of the parts which is consistent with their sizes, and all elements in a higher-ranked part exceed all elements in the lower-ranked part. We demonstrate that one can restrict attention to size-consecutive partitions with shapes that are nonmajorized, we study these shapes, bound their numbers and develop algorithms to enumerate them. Our study extends the analysis of a previous paper by Hwang and Rothblum which discussed the above problem assuming the existence of a majorizing shape. This research is partially supported by ROC National Science grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

Hazard rate ordering of the second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR samples

In this paper, we compare the hazard rate functions of the second-order statistics arising from two sets of independent multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates (PHR) samples. It is proved that the submajorization order between the sample size vectors together with the supermajorization order between the hazard rate vectors imply the hazard rate ordering between the corresponding second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR random variables. The results established here provide theoretical guidance both for the winner's price for the bid in the second-price reverse auction in auction theory and fail-safe system design in reliability. Some numerical examples are also provided for illustration.